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On international uncertainty links: BART-based empirical evidence for Canada

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  • Gupta, Rangan
  • Pierdzioch, Christian
  • Risse, Marian

Abstract

We use the indexes of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) developed by Baker et al. (2015) for Canada and seven (China, France, Germany, Japan, Russia, United Kingdom, and United States) other countries to study international uncertainty links by means of a Bayesian Additive Regression Trees (BART) algorithm. Using partial-dependence plots, relative-importance measures, and permutation tests, we shed light on how EPU in Canada is linked to EPU in seven other countries.

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  • Gupta, Rangan & Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian, 2016. "On international uncertainty links: BART-based empirical evidence for Canada," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 24-27.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:143:y:2016:i:c:p:24-27
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2016.03.009
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Mehmet Balcilar & Rangan Gupta & Clement Kyei & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Does Economic Policy Uncertainty Predict Exchange Rate Returns and Volatility? Evidence from a Nonparametric Causality-in-Quantiles Test," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 27(2), pages 229-250, April.
    2. Christou, Christina & Gupta, Rangan & Hassapis, Christis, 2017. "Does economic policy uncertainty forecast real housing returns in a panel of OECD countries? A Bayesian approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 50-60.
    3. Sun, Xiaolei & Yao, Xiaoyang & Wang, Jun, 2017. "Dynamic interaction between economic policy uncertainty and financial stress: A multi-scale correlation framework," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 214-221.
    4. Trung, Nguyen Ba, 2019. "The spillover effects of US economic policy uncertainty on the global economy: A global VAR approach," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 90-110.
    5. Jaewon Jung, 2023. "Multinational Firms and Economic Integration: The Role of Global Uncertainty," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(3), pages 1-18, February.
    6. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2020. "Spillover among financial, industrial and consumer uncertainties. The case of EU member states," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
    7. Chuliá, Helena & Gupta, Rangan & Uribe, Jorge M. & Wohar, Mark E., 2017. "Impact of US uncertainties on emerging and mature markets: Evidence from a quantile-vector autoregressive approach," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 178-191.
    8. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Jacobus A. Nel & Xin Sheng, 2020. "Monetary policy uncertainty spillovers in time and frequency domains," Journal of Economic Structures, Springer;Pan-Pacific Association of Input-Output Studies (PAPAIOS), vol. 9(1), pages 1-30, December.
    9. Mehmet Balcilar & David Gabauer & Rangan Gupta & Christian Pierdzioch, 2021. "Uncertainty and Forecastability of Regional Output Growth in the United Kingdom: Evidence from Machine Learning," Working Papers 202111, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    10. Pierdzioch, Christian & Risse, Marian & Gupta, Rangan & Nyakabawo, Wendy, 2019. "On REIT returns and (un-)expected inflation: Empirical evidence based on Bayesian additive regression trees," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 160-169.
    11. Rangan Gupta & Chi-Keung (Marco) Lau & Xin Sheng, 2019. "Macroeconomic Uncertainty Connections across the US States: Evidence from a Bayesian Graphical Structural VAR (BGSVAR) Model," Working Papers 201910, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    12. Śmiech, Sławomir & Papież, Monika, 2018. "Volatility spillovers among uncertainty measures. The case of EU member states," MPRA Paper 90319, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2018. "On the transmission mechanism of country-specific and international economic uncertainty spillovers: Evidence from a TVP-VAR connectedness decomposition approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 171(C), pages 63-71.
    14. Christina Christou & Giray Gozgor & Rangan Gupta & Chi keung Marco Lau, 2020. "Are Uncertainties across the World Convergent?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 40(1), pages 855-862.
    15. Genc, Ismail H., 2022. "Are Indian Subcontinent remittance markets connected to each other?," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    16. Gupta, Rangan & Lau, Chi-Keung (Marco) & Sheng, Xin, 2020. "Graph theory-based network analysis of regional uncertainties of the US Economy," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    17. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2019. "The impact of US uncertainty on the Euro area in good and bad times: evidence from a quantile structural vector autoregressive model," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 46(2), pages 353-368, May.
    18. Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan, 2020. "Spillovers across macroeconomic, financial and real estate uncertainties: A time-varying approach," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 167-173.
    19. Siphumlile Mangisa & Sonali Das & Rangan Gupta, 2022. "Analyzing The Impact Of Brexit On Global Uncertainty Using Functional Linear Regression With Point Of Impact: The Role Of Currency And Equity Markets," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 67(04), pages 1377-1388, June.
    20. Antonakakis, Nikolaos & Gabauer, David & Gupta, Rangan & Plakandaras, Vasilios, 2018. "Dynamic connectedness of uncertainty across developed economies: A time-varying approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 63-75.
    21. Massaporn Cheuathonghua & Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Pattana Boonchoo & Jittima Tongurai, 2019. "Extreme spillovers of VIX fear index to international equity markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 33(1), pages 1-38, March.
    22. Gupta, Rangan & Sun, Xiaojin, 2020. "Forecasting economic policy uncertainty of BRIC countries using Bayesian VARs," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; BART algorithm; Canada;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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