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A simple and focused backtest of value at risk

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  • Krämer, Walter
  • Wied, Dominik

Abstract

We suggest a simple improvement of recent VaR-backtesting procedures based on time intervals between VaR-violations and show via Monte Carlo that our test has more power than its competitors against various empirically relevant clustering alternatives.

Suggested Citation

  • Krämer, Walter & Wied, Dominik, 2015. "A simple and focused backtest of value at risk," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 137(C), pages 29-31.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:137:y:2015:i:c:p:29-31
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.10.028
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Bertrand Candelon & Gilbert Colletaz & Christophe Hurlin & Sessi Tokpavi, 2011. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A GMM Duration-Based Test," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 9(2), pages 314-343, Spring.
    2. Peter Christoffersen, 2004. "Backtesting Value-at-Risk: A Duration-Based Approach," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 2(1), pages 84-108.
    3. Christoffersen, Peter F, 1998. "Evaluating Interval Forecasts," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 841-862, November.
    4. Ziggel, Daniel & Berens, Tobias & Weiß, Gregor N.F. & Wied, Dominik, 2014. "A new set of improved Value-at-Risk backtests," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 29-41.
    5. Dorfman, Robert, 1979. "A Formula for the Gini Coefficient," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 61(1), pages 146-149, February.
    6. Ardia, David & Hoogerheide, Lennart F., 2014. "GARCH models for daily stock returns: Impact of estimation frequency on Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall forecasts," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 123(2), pages 187-190.
    7. Herwartz, Helmut & Raters, Fabian H.C., 2015. "Copula-MGARCH with continuous covariance decomposition," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 73-76.
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    Cited by:

    1. Marta Małecka, 2024. "New runs‐based approach to testing value at risk forecasts," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(6), pages 2021-2041, September.
    2. Yannick Hoga & Matei Demetrescu, 2023. "Monitoring Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Forecasts," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 69(5), pages 2954-2971, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Backtesting; Power; Value at risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics

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