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Worse than expected? Uncertainty and earnings subsequent to return migration

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  • Saarela, Jan

Abstract

Analyses of unique cross-country register data reveal that earnings subsequent to return migration are strongly dependent on uncertainty in the initial migration decision. Migrants who miss their target have 10%–25% lower earnings than those at the expected level.

Suggested Citation

  • Saarela, Jan, 2015. "Worse than expected? Uncertainty and earnings subsequent to return migration," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 136(C), pages 28-30.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:136:y:2015:i:c:p:28-30
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.08.034
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence," RF Berlin - CReAM Discussion Paper Series 0702, Rockwool Foundation Berlin (RF Berlin) - Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM).
    2. Alan Barrett & Jean Goggin, 2010. "Returning To The Question Of A Wage Premium For Returning Migrants," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 213(1), pages 43-51, July.
    3. Alan Barrett & Philip J. O’Connell, 2001. "Is There a Wage Premium for Returning Irish Migrants?," The Economic and Social Review, Economic and Social Studies, vol. 32(1), pages 1-21.
    4. Christian Dustmann & Yoram Weiss, 2007. "Return Migration: Theory and Empirical Evidence from the UK," British Journal of Industrial Relations, London School of Economics, vol. 45(2), pages 236-256, June.
    5. Augustin Coulon & Matloob Piracha, 2005. "Self-selection and the performance of return migrants: the source country perspective," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 18(4), pages 779-807, November.
    6. DaVanzo, Julie, 1983. "Repeat Migration in the United States: Who Moves Back and Who Moves On?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 65(4), pages 552-559, November.
    7. Jan Saarela & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2012. "Uncertainty and international return migration: some evidence from linked register data," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(18), pages 1893-1897, December.
    8. George J. Borjas & Bernt Bratsberg, 2021. "Who Leaves? The Outmigration Of The Foreign-Born," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Foundational Essays in Immigration Economics, chapter 5, pages 93-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    9. Rooth, Dan-Olof & Saarela, Jan, 2007. "Selection in migration and return migration: Evidence from micro data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(1), pages 90-95, January.
    10. Catherine Y. Co & Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2000. "Returns to returning," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 13(1), pages 57-79.
    11. Tunali, Insan, 2000. "Rationality of Migration," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 41(4), pages 893-920, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2020. "Naturalization in a Context of Free Mobility: Evidence from Cross-National Data on Finnish Immigrants in Sweden," European Journal of Population, Springer;European Association for Population Studies, vol. 36(2), pages 317-335, April.
    2. Jan Saarela & Kirk Scott, 2017. "Mother Tongue, Host Country Earnings, and Return Migration: Evidence from Cross-National Administrative Records," International Migration Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 51(2), pages 542-564, June.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Uncertainty; Expected earnings; Return migration; Post-migration earnings;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J10 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - General
    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration

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