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The zero lower bound and movements in the term structure of interest rates

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  • Grisse, Christian

Abstract

The expectations hypothesis of the term structure implies a nonlinear relationship between short- and long-term rates if nominal interest rates are constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). This note finds limited evidence for such nonlinearities in the US term structure. The sensitivity of medium-term yields to short rate movements declined, but there is no evidence for asymmetric responses to positive versus negative short rate changes.

Suggested Citation

  • Grisse, Christian, 2015. "The zero lower bound and movements in the term structure of interest rates," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 131(C), pages 66-69.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:131:y:2015:i:c:p:66-69
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2015.03.039
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Eric T. Swanson & John C. Williams, 2014. "Measuring the Effect of the Zero Lower Bound on Medium- and Longer-Term Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(10), pages 3154-3185, October.
    2. Krippner, Leo, 2013. "Measuring the stance of monetary policy in zero lower bound environments," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 118(1), pages 135-138.
    3. Kim, Don H. & Singleton, Kenneth J., 2012. "Term structure models and the zero bound: An empirical investigation of Japanese yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 170(1), pages 32-49.
    4. Shigeru Iwata, 2010. "Monetary Policy and the Term Structure of Interest Rates When Short-Term Rates Are Close to Zero," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 28, pages 59-78, November.
    5. Ruge-Murcia, Francisco J., 2006. "The expectations hypothesis of the term structure when interest rates are close to zero," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(7), pages 1409-1424, October.
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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Grisse & Signe Krogstrup & Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "Lower-Bound Beliefs and Long-Term Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 13(3), pages 165-202, September.
    2. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Term Structure of Interest Rates under Zero or Low Bound: The Recent Japanese Case," Economy, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 3(1), pages 19-23.
    3. Yutaka Kurihara, 2016. "Effectiveness of the Zero Interest Rate Policy for Financial Markets in Japan: Principal Components Analysis," Applied Economics and Finance, Redfame publishing, vol. 3(3), pages 103-111, August.
    4. Christian Grisse & Silvio Schumacher, 2018. "Term structure dynamics at low and negative interest rates—evidence from Switzerland," Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Springer;Swiss Society of Economics and Statistics, vol. 154(1), pages 1-17, December.
    5. Dr. Christian Grisse & Dr. Silvio Schumacher, 2017. "The response of long-term yields to negative interest rates: evidence from Switzerland," Working Papers 2017-10, Swiss National Bank.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Zero lower bound; Yield curve;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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