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Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries

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  • Cho, Dooyeon
  • Rhee, Dong-Eun

Abstract

This paper investigates nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption. The estimated consumption function shows smooth regime switching depending on the debt-to-GDP ratio, and a higher level of government debt crowds out private consumption to a greater extent.

Suggested Citation

  • Cho, Dooyeon & Rhee, Dong-Eun, 2013. "Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 504-507.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:121:y:2013:i:3:p:504-507
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econlet.2013.10.013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. González, Andrés & Teräsvirta, Timo & van Dijk, Dick & Yang, Yukai, 2005. "Panel Smooth Transition Regression Models," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 604, Stockholm School of Economics, revised 11 Oct 2017.
    2. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    3. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2010. "Growth in a Time of Debt," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(2), pages 573-578, May.
    4. Ludwig Alexander & Sløk Torsten, 2004. "The Relationship between Stock Prices, House Prices and Consumption in OECD Countries," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 4(1), pages 1-28, March.
    5. Giancarlo Corsetti & André Meier & Gernot J. Müller, 2012. "What determines government spending multipliers? [Mafia and public spending: Evidence of the fiscal multiplier from a quasi-experiment’, mimeo]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 27(72), pages 521-565.
    6. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
    7. Im, Kyung So & Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol, 2003. "Testing for unit roots in heterogeneous panels," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 115(1), pages 53-74, July.
    8. Peter Pedroni, 1999. "Critical Values for Cointegration Tests in Heterogeneous Panels with Multiple Regressors," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 61(S1), pages 653-670, November.
    9. Choi, In, 2001. "Unit root tests for panel data," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(2), pages 249-272, April.
    10. Berben, Robert-Paul & Brosens, Teunis, 2007. "The impact of government debt on private consumption in OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 94(2), pages 220-225, February.
    11. Ludwig, Alexander & Sløk, Torsten, 2004. "The relationship between stock prices, house prices and consumption in OECD," Sonderforschungsbereich 504 Publications 04-12, Sonderforschungsbereich 504, Universität Mannheim;Sonderforschungsbereich 504, University of Mannheim.
    12. repec:bla:obuest:v:61:y:1999:i:0:p:653-70 is not listed on IDEAS
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    Cited by:

    1. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2017. "Non-linear adjustments on the excess sensitivity of consumption with liquidity constraints," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4180-4187, September.
    2. Bernardo Leyva-Uribe & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Oscar M. Valencia-Arana & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Efectos del Quantitative Easing sobre los retornos accionarios en mercados emergentes," Borradores de Economia 14286, Banco de la Republica.
    3. Cho, Dooyeon & Lee, Kyung-woo, 2022. "Population aging and fiscal sustainability: Nonlinear evidence from Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    4. Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Consumption: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, March.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Consumption; Government debt; Nonlinearity; Panel smooth transition regression error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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