IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jjrfmx/v16y2023i3p190-d1093692.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Revisiting the Determinants of Consumption: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach

Author

Listed:
  • Pinar Deniz

    (Department of Economics, Marmara University, Istanbul 34722, Turkey)

  • Thanasis Stengos

    (Department of Economics, University of Guelph, Guelph, ON N1G 2W1, Canada)

Abstract

This study revisits the widely researched area of the consumption function using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) for a panel of EU countries to deal with the uncertainty of potential determinants, using the convergence club analysis to construct homogeneous groups by income. BMA suggests that income is the only variable that is found to be a strong determinant across different country groups, whereas other variables have varying importance for different country groups.

Suggested Citation

  • Pinar Deniz & Thanasis Stengos, 2023. "Revisiting the Determinants of Consumption: A Bayesian Model Averaging Approach," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 16(3), pages 1-13, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:190-:d:1093692
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/190/pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1911-8074/16/3/190/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cho, Dooyeon & Rhee, Dong-Eun, 2013. "Nonlinear effects of government debt on private consumption: Evidence from OECD countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 504-507.
    2. Carroll, Christopher D & Fuhrer, Jeffrey C & Wilcox, David W, 1994. "Does Consumer Sentiment Forecast Household Spending? If So, Why?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(5), pages 1397-1408, December.
    3. Charles Calomiris & Stanley D. Longhofer & William Miles, 2009. "The (Mythical?) Housing Wealth Effect," NBER Working Papers 15075, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Milton Friedman, 1957. "The Permanent Income Hypothesis," NBER Chapters, in: A Theory of the Consumption Function, pages 20-37, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Cho , Dooyeon & Rhee , Dong-Eun, 2013. "Nonlinear Effects of Government Debt on Private Consumption in OECD Countries," Working Papers 13-5, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy.
    6. Zeugner, Stefan & Feldkircher, Martin, 2015. "Bayesian Model Averaging Employing Fixed and Flexible Priors: The BMS Package for R," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 68(i04).
    7. Hassan Gholipour Fereidouni & Reza Tajaddini, 2017. "Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption Expenditure: The Role of Consumer Confidence," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 216-236, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cho, Dooyeon & Lee, Kyung-woo, 2022. "Population aging and fiscal sustainability: Nonlinear evidence from Europe," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    2. Tomas Havranek & Anna Sokolova, 2016. "Do Consumers Really Follow a Rule of Thumb? Three Thousand Estimates from 130 Studies Say "Probably Not"," Working Papers 2016/08, Czech National Bank.
    3. Hamid Baghestani & Sehar Fatima, 2021. "Growth in US Durables Spending: Assessing the Impact of Consumer Ability and Willingness to Buy," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 17(1), pages 55-69, April.
    4. Juhro, Solikin M. & Iyke, Bernard Njindan, 2020. "Consumer confidence and consumption expenditure in Indonesia," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 367-377.
    5. Yener Coskun & Burak Sencer Atasoy & Giacomo Morri & Esra Alp, 2018. "Wealth Effects on Household Final Consumption: Stock and Housing Market Channels," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 6(2), pages 1-32, June.
    6. Jingjing Yan, 2018. "The Heterogenous Impact of Fluctuation of Housing Prices upon Consumption of Urban Households in China," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 8(6), pages 1-8.
    7. Dooyeon Cho & Dong-Eun Rhee, 2017. "Non-linear adjustments on the excess sensitivity of consumption with liquidity constraints," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(41), pages 4180-4187, September.
    8. Bernardo Leyva-Uribe & Jose E. Gomez-Gonzalez & Oscar M. Valencia-Arana & Mauricio Villamizar-Villegas, 2016. "Efectos del Quantitative Easing sobre los retornos accionarios en mercados emergentes," Borradores de Economia 929, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    9. McDonald, Rebecca & Powdthavee, Nattavudh, 2018. "The Shadow Prices of Voluntary Caregiving: Using Panel Data of Well-Being to Estimate the Cost of Informal Care," IZA Discussion Papers 11545, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    10. Riccardo (Jack) Lucchetti & Luca Pedini, 2020. "ParMA: Parallelised Bayesian Model Averaging for Generalised Linear Models," Working Papers 2020:28, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    11. Thomas M. Fullerton JR., 2001. "Specification of a Borderplex Econometric Forecasting Model," International Regional Science Review, , vol. 24(2), pages 245-260, April.
    12. Kluth, Sebastian & Gasche, Martin, 2013. "Ersatzraten in der Gesetzlichen Rentenversicherung," MEA discussion paper series 201311, Munich Center for the Economics of Aging (MEA) at the Max Planck Institute for Social Law and Social Policy.
    13. Di Bella, Gabriel & Grigoli, Francesco, 2019. "Optimism, pessimism, and short-term fluctuations," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 79-96.
    14. repec:tiu:tiutis:bdbe10dd-649c-4521-ab28-7aa051a5bf82 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Leung, Charles Ka Yui & Ng, Joe Cho Yiu, 2018. "Macro Aspects of Housing," MPRA Paper 93512, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Yeung, Matthew C.H. & Ramasamy, Bala & Chen, Junsong & Paliwoda, Stan, 2013. "Customer satisfaction and consumer expenditure in selected European countries," International Journal of Research in Marketing, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 406-416.
    17. Kim, Kun & Park, Oun-joung & Yun, Seunghyun & Yun, Haejung, 2017. "What makes tourists feel negatively about tourism destinations? Application of hybrid text mining methodology to smart destination management," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 362-369.
    18. Anna Sokolova, 2023. "Marginal Propensity to Consume and Unemployment: a Meta-analysis," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 51, pages 813-846, December.
    19. Gric, Zuzana & Ehrenbergerova, Dominika & Hodula, Martin, 2022. "The power of sentiment: Irrational beliefs of households and consumer loan dynamics," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    20. Marta Lachowska, 2013. "Expenditure, Confidence, and Uncertainty: Identifying Shocks to Consumer Confidence Using Daily Data," Upjohn Working Papers 13-197, W.E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research.
    21. Berg Lennart & Bergström Reinhold, 1996. "Consumer Confidence and Consumption in Sweden," Working Paper Series 1996:7, Uppsala University, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jjrfmx:v:16:y:2023:i:3:p:190-:d:1093692. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.