IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecolet/v102y2009i1p30-32.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Halunga, Andreea G.
  • Osborn, Denise R.
  • Sensier, Marianne

Abstract

Employing the modified tests of Harvey, Leybourne and Taylor [Harvey, D.I., Leybourne, S.J. and Taylor, A.M.R., 2006. Modified tests for a change in persistence. Journal of Econometrics 134, 441-469.] for a single change in persistence and repartitioning the sample when a break is found, this paper shows that US and UK inflation changes from I(0) to I(1) in the early 1970s, with a subsequent reversion to I(0) behaviour, compatible with modern macroeconomic theories, in the early 1980s.

Suggested Citation

  • Halunga, Andreea G. & Osborn, Denise R. & Sensier, Marianne, 2009. "Changes in the order of integration of US and UK inflation," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 30-32, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:1:p:30-32
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165-1765(08)00297-8
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Evans, Martin & Wachtel, Paul, 1993. "Inflation Regimes and the," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 25(3), pages 475-511, August.
    2. Andrew T. Levin & Jeremy M. Piger, 2003. "Is inflation persistence intrinsic in industrial economies?," Working Papers 2002-023, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
    3. Cavaliere, Giuseppe & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2008. "Testing for a change in persistence in the presence of non-stationary volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 147(1), pages 84-98, November.
    4. Stephen G. Cecchetti & Guy Debelle, 2006. "Has the inflation process changed? [‘Did the underlying behaviour of inflation change in the 1980s? A study of 22 countries,’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 21(46), pages 312-352.
    5. Filippo Altissimo & Laurent Bilke & Andrew Levin & Thomas Mathä & Benoit Mojon, 2006. "Sectoral and Aggregate Inflation Dynamics in the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 4(2-3), pages 585-593, 04-05.
    6. Bai, Jushan, 1997. "Estimating Multiple Breaks One at a Time," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(3), pages 315-352, June.
    7. Phillips, Peter C. B. & Jin, Sainan, 2002. "The KPSS test with seasonal dummies," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 239-243, October.
    8. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    9. Busetti, Fabio & Taylor, A. M. Robert, 2004. "Tests of stationarity against a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 123(1), pages 33-66, November.
    10. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Taylor, A.M. Robert, 2006. "Modified tests for a change in persistence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 134(2), pages 441-469, October.
    11. Martin Evans & Paul Wachtel, 1993. "Inflation regimes and the sources of inflation uncertainty," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, pages 475-520.
    12. Giuseppe Cavaliere & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2006. "Testing for a Change in Persistence in the Presence of a Volatility Shift," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 68(s1), pages 761-781, December.
    13. Wojciech Charemza & Daniela Hristova & Peter Burridge, 2005. "Is inflation stationary?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(8), pages 901-903.
    14. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    15. D R Osborn & M Sensier, 2004. "Modelling UK Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality and Monetary Policy," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 46, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    16. Timothy J. Vogelsang, 1998. "Trend Function Hypothesis Testing in the Presence of Serial Correlation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 123-148, January.
    17. Kim, Jae-Young, 2000. "Detection of change in persistence of a linear time series," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 95(1), pages 97-116, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jorge M.L.G. Andraz & Paulo M.M. Rodrigues, 2010. "Persistence Change in Tourism Data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 16(2), pages 303-319, June.
    2. João Pedro Pereira & Vasco Pesquita & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & António Rua, 2019. "Market integration and the persistence of electricity prices," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(5), pages 1495-1514, November.
    3. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2011. "Detecting changes from short to long memory," Statistical Papers, Springer, vol. 52(4), pages 847-870, November.
    4. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    5. Çatık, A. Nazif & Martin, Christopher, 2012. "Macroeconomic transitions and the transmission mechanism: Evidence from Turkey," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(4), pages 1440-1449.
    6. Kruse, Robinson & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2012. "Long memory and changing persistence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 114(3), pages 268-272.
    7. Reza Habibi, 2010. "Distribution Approximations for Cusum and Cusumsq Statistics," Statistics in Transition new series, Główny Urząd Statystyczny (Polska), vol. 11(3), pages 585-596, December.
    8. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    9. Andrew Phiri, 2012. "Threshold effects and inflation persistence in South Africa," Journal of Financial Economic Policy, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 4(3), pages 247-269, July.
    10. Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier, 2009. "Uk Inflation: Persistence, Seasonality And Monetary Policy," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 56(1), pages 24-44, February.
    11. Milas, Costas & Dergiades, Theologos & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "An assessment of inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    12. Paulo M.M. Rodrigues & Philipp Sibbertsen, 2019. "Testing for breaks in the cointegrating relationship: On the stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium," Working Papers w201912, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    13. Wingert, Simon & Mboya, Mwasi Paza & Sibbertsen, Philipp, 2020. "Distinguishing between breaks in the mean and breaks in persistence under long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 193(C).
    14. S Coleman & K Sirichand, 2015. "Investigating Multiple Changes in Persistence in International Yields," Economic Issues Journal Articles, Economic Issues, vol. 20(1), pages 65-90, March.
    15. Bill Russell & Anindya Banerjee & Issam Malki & Natalia Ponomareva, 2010. "A Multiple Break Panel Approach To Estimating United States Phillips Curves," Dundee Discussion Papers in Economics 232, Economic Studies, University of Dundee.
    16. Charemza, Wojciech & Makarova, Svetlana, 2009. "Nonlinear Inflationary Persistence and Growth: Theory and Empirical Comparative Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 6(2), pages 5-22, June.
    17. Mardi Dungey & Denise Osborn, 2009. "Modelling International Linkages for Large Open Economies: US and Euro Area," CAMA Working Papers 2009-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    18. Roy Cerqueti & Mauro Costantini & Luciano Gutierrez, 2009. "New panel tests to assess inflation persistence," Working Papers 54-2009, Macerata University, Department of Finance and Economic Sciences, revised Oct 2009.
    19. Kruse Robinson & Ventosa-Santaulària Daniel & Noriega Antonio E., 2017. "Changes in persistence, spurious regressions and the Fisher hypothesis," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 21(3), pages 1-28, June.
    20. Martins, Luis F. & Rodrigues, Paulo M.M., 2014. "Testing for persistence change in fractionally integrated models: An application to world inflation rates," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 502-522.
    21. Paulo M. M. Rodrigues & Philipp Sibbertsen & Michelle Voges, 2024. "The stability of government bond markets’ equilibrium and the interdependence of lending rates," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 67(6), pages 2503-2538, December.
    22. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2009. "Structural Breaks in the International Transmission of Inflation," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 119, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    23. Chen, Zhanshou & Xing, Yuhong & Li, Fuxiao, 2016. "Sieve bootstrap monitoring for change from short to long memory," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 140(C), pages 53-56.
    24. Diego Moccero & Shingo Watanabe & Boris Cournède, 2011. "What Drives Inflation in the Major OECD Economies?," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 854, OECD Publishing.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Georgios P. Kouretas & Mark E. Wohar, 2012. "The dynamics of inflation: a study of a large number of countries," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(16), pages 2001-2026, June.
    2. Gabriel Zsurkis & JoÃo Nicolau & Paulo M. M. Rodrigues, 2021. "A Re‐Examination of Inflation Persistence Dynamics in OECD Countries: A New Approach," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 935-959, August.
    3. Mohitosh Kejriwal, 2020. "A Robust Sequential Procedure for Estimating the Number of Structural Changes in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(3), pages 669-685, June.
    4. Petrenko, Victoria (Петренко, ВИктория) & Skrobotov, Anton (Скроботов, Антон) & Turuntseva, Maria (Турунцева, Мария), 2016. "Testing of Changes in Persistence and Their Effect on the Forecasting Quality [Тестирование Изменения Инерционности И Влияние На Качество Прогнозов]," Working Papers 542, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    5. Evžen Kočenda & Balázs Varga, 2018. "The Impact of Monetary Strategies on Inflation Persistence," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 229-274, September.
    6. Uwe Hassler & Jan Scheithauer, 2008. "On Critical Values of Tests against a Change in Persistence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(5), pages 705-710, October.
    7. Hans KREMERS & Andreas LOESCHEL, 2010. "The Strategic Implications of Setting Border Tax Adjustments," EcoMod2010 259600097, EcoMod.
    8. Daniel Chiquiar & Antonio Noriega & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2010. "A time-series approach to test a change in inflation persistence: the Mexican experience," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(24), pages 3067-3075.
    9. Erdenebat Bataa & Denise R. Osborn & Marianne Sensier & Dick van Dijk, 2014. "Identifying Changes in Mean, Seasonality, Persistence and Volatility for G7 and Euro Area Inflation," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 76(3), pages 360-388, June.
    10. Ahmad, A.H. & Harvey, David I. & Pentecost, Eric J., 2011. "Exchange rate regime verification: An alternative method of testing for regime changes," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 113(1), pages 96-98, October.
    11. Mohitosh Kejriwal & Xuewen Yu & Pierre Perron, 2020. "Bootstrap procedures for detecting multiple persistence shifts in heteroskedastic time series," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 41(5), pages 676-690, September.
    12. Giorgio Canarella & Rangan Gupta & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2019. "Unemployment rate hysteresis and the great recession: exploring the metropolitan evidence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 56(1), pages 61-79, January.
    13. George Hondroyiannis & Sophia Lazaretou, 2007. "Inflation persistence during periods of structural change: an assessment using Greek data," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 34(5), pages 453-475, December.
    14. Altansukh, Gantungalag & Becker, Ralf & Bratsiotis, George J. & Osborn, Denise R., 2017. "What is the Globalisation of Inflation?," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 74, pages 1-27.
    15. C.S. Bos & S.J. Koopman & M. Ooms, 2007. "Long Memory Modelling of Inflation with Stochastic Variance and Structural Breaks," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 07-099/4, Tinbergen Institute.
    16. Chen, Zhanshou & Jin, Zi & Tian, Zheng & Qi, Peiyan, 2012. "Bootstrap testing multiple changes in persistence for a heavy-tailed sequence," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(7), pages 2303-2316.
    17. Milas, Costas & Dergiades, Theologos & Panagiotidis, Theodore & Papapanagiotou, Georgios, 2024. "An assessment of inflation targeting," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 97(C).
    18. Antonio Noriega & Carlos Capistrán & Manuel Ramos-Francia, 2013. "On the dynamics of inflation persistence around the world," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 44(3), pages 1243-1265, June.
    19. Gantungalag Altansukh & Ralf Becker & George Bratsiotis & Denise R. Osborn, 2018. "Structural Breaks in International Inflation Linkages for OECD Countries," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 240, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    20. Taipalus, Katja, 2012. "Signaling asset price bubbles with time-series methods," Research Discussion Papers 7/2012, Bank of Finland.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Inflation Structural change;

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:102:y:2009:i:1:p:30-32. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/ecolet .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.