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Vulnerability to Natural Shocks: Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique

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  • Salvucci, Vincenzo
  • Santos, Ricardo

Abstract

Mozambique is among the most disaster-prone countries in the world. A bigger than usual, and mostly unexpected, flood occurred in the central-northern region of the country in the first few months of 2015, causing huge damage to infrastructures. In this paper, we use a nationally representative household budget survey that was being carried out in the field during those months to assess the short-term impact of the 2015 flooding on household consumption and poverty levels. Applying a difference-in-difference approach, we find that, for those exposed to the flood, consumption reduced significantly in the short term, in the range of 11–17%, depending on the specification, on the estimation procedure implemented or on the subsample of households selected. Poorer households, and especially households living in rural areas, seem to have been affected significantly more. Poverty levels also increased due to the flood, by about 6 percentage points. These results are relevant for policy planning and natural disaster management, as well as for ex-ante vulnerability assessment in Mozambique and other risk-prone developing countries with similar characteristics.

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  • Salvucci, Vincenzo & Santos, Ricardo, 2020. "Vulnerability to Natural Shocks: Assessing the Short-Term Impact on Consumption and Poverty of the 2015 Flood in Mozambique," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 176(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolec:v:176:y:2020:i:c:s0921800919316672
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolecon.2020.106713
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    2. Eva-Maria Egger & Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2023. "Evolution of Multidimensional Poverty in Crisis-Ridden Mozambique," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 166(3), pages 485-519, April.
    3. Zang, Xuheng & Feng, Jiankang & Song, Mingyue, 2024. "The impact of air pollution on household vulnerability to poverty: An empirical study from household data in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 1369-1383.
    4. Erwin Knippenberg & Mattia Amadio & Moritz Meyer, 2024. "Poverty Impacts of the Pakistan Flood 2022," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 453-471, November.
    5. M. A. Aalst & E. Koomen & H. L. F. Groot, 2023. "Vulnerability and Resilience to Drought and Saltwater Intrusion of Rice Farming Households in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 7(3), pages 407-430, November.

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