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Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries

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  • Naifar, Nader
  • Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain
  • Hammoudeh, Shawkat

Abstract

This paper investigates the dynamic and nonlinear impact of oil price returns on the sovereign credit default swap (CDS) spreads for the oil-rich countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and other important oil-exporting countries, namely Venezuela, Mexico and Russia. We employ the standard quantile regression analysis, the rolling quantile regression, and finally, the Quantile-on-quantile (QQ) approach that allows one to investigate the dependence dynamics of the sovereign CDS spreads under different credit market conditions. The empirical results show that oil price returns significantly and favorably decrease the sovereign credit risk premium of the non-GCC oil-exporting countries under consideration. However, the results also suggest no or little impact on the sovereign credit risk premium of Saudi Arabia, UAE and Norway, which have the most significant sovereign wealth funds in the world. The negative (i.e. favorable) impact of oil price returns on the sovereign CDS spreads, where present, gradually increases with the quantile level and is the highest during the bullish credit market conditions. The results also show that those CDS spreads are more sensitive to the global bond market uncertainty factor than to the global equity market uncertainty factor.

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  • Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Hammoudeh, Shawkat, 2020. "Dynamic nonlinear impacts of oil price returns and financial uncertainties on credit risks of oil-exporting countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:88:y:2020:i:c:s0140988320300864
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2020.104747
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    5. Sarit Maitra, 2023. "Impact of Economic Uncertainty, Geopolitical Risk, Pandemic, Financial & Macroeconomic Factors on Crude Oil Returns -- An Empirical Investigation," Papers 2310.01123, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
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    7. Qin, Yun & Hong, Kairong & Chen, Jinyu & Zhang, Zitao, 2020. "Asymmetric effects of geopolitical risks on energy returns and volatility under different market conditions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    8. Yang, Dong-Xiao & Wu, Bi-Bo & Tong, Jing-Yang, 2021. "Dynamics and causality of oil price shocks on commodities: Quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Mathias Manguzvane & Mduduzi Biyase, 2023. "Exchange rate risk and sovereign debt risk in South Africa: A Regime Dependent Approach," Economics Working Papers edwrg-04-2023, College of Business and Economics, University of Johannesburg, South Africa, revised 2023.
    10. Christos Floros & Georgios Galyfianakis, 2020. "Bubbles in Crude Oil and Commodity Energy Index: New Evidence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(24), pages 1-11, December.
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    14. Mo, Bin & Nie, He & Zhao, Rongjie, 2024. "Dynamic nonlinear effects of geopolitical risks on commodities: Fresh evidence from quantile methods," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 288(C).
    15. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    16. Karol Szafranek & Marek Kwas & Grzegorz Szafrański & Zuzanna Wośko, 2020. "Common Determinants of Credit Default Swap Premia in the North American Oil and Gas Industry. A Panel BMA Approach," Energies, MDPI, vol. 13(23), pages 1-23, November.
    17. Liu, Jiatong & Mao, Weifang & Qiao, Xingzhi, 2023. "Dynamic and asymmetric effects between carbon emission trading, financial uncertainties, and Chinese industry stocks: Evidence from quantile-on-quantile and causality-in-quantiles analysis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    18. Wang, Qunwei & Liu, Mengmeng & Xiao, Ling & Dai, Xingyu & Li, Matthew C. & Wu, Fei, 2022. "Conditional sovereign CDS in market basket risk scenario: A dynamic vine-copula analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Sovereign CDS spreads; Oil volatility; Financial uncertainty; Quantile-on-Quantile approach;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G2 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services

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