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Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of REITs using realized volatility jump models

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  • Odusami, Babatunde O

Abstract

This paper examines jump risk in the time series of Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs). Using high-frequency index-level and firm-level data, the econometric model in this paper integrates jumps into the volatility forecast by estimating jump augmented Heterogeneous Autoregressive (HAR) models of realized volatility. To assess the information value of these specifications, their forecasting accuracies for generating one-step ahead daily Value-at-Risk are also compared with other VaR specifications, including those generated from historical returns, bootstrap technique, and severity loss distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Odusami, Babatunde O, 2021. "Forecasting the Value-at-Risk of REITs using realized volatility jump models," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecofin:v:58:y:2021:i:c:s1062940821000589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.najef.2021.101426
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    6. Odusami, Babatunde O., 2021. "Volatility jumps and their determinants in REIT returns," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    7. Andersen, Torben G. & Bollerslev, Tim & Huang, Xin, 2011. "A reduced form framework for modeling volatility of speculative prices based on realized variation measures," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 160(1), pages 176-189, January.
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    Cited by:

    1. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan & Bouri, Elie, 2023. "Testing the forecasting power of global economic conditions for the volatility of international REITs using a GARCH-MIDAS approach," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 303-314.
    2. Shixuan Wang & Rangan Gupta & Matteo Bonato & Oguzhan Cepni, 2022. "The Effects of Conventional and Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks on US REITs Moments: Evidence from VARs with Functional Shocks," Working Papers 202219, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Marta Małecka & Radosław Pietrzyk, 2024. "A spectral approach to evaluating VaR forecasts: stock market evidence from the subprime mortgage crisis, through COVID-19, to the Russo–Ukrainian war," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(5), pages 4533-4567, October.
    4. Song, Yuping & Huang, Jiefei & Zhang, Qichao & Xu, Yang, 2024. "Heterogeneity effect of positive and negative jumps on the realized volatility: Evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
    5. Chae-Deug, Yi, 2024. "Realized normal volatility and maximum outlying jumps in high frequency returns for Korean won–US Dollar," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    REITs; Real estate; Jumps; Bipower variation; Value-at-Risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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