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Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries

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  • Abosedra, Salah
  • Arayssi, Mahmoud
  • Ben Sita, Bernard
  • Mutshinda, Crispin

Abstract

This study takes a portfolio approach to investigate GDP growth volatility spillovers among 120 countries of the world during the 1960–2017 period. Based on the ratios of growth rate to standard deviation, we rank these countries in pools of high-, midsize-, and low-income growth. Using a spillover index that is based on variance decompositions under a vector autoregressive framework, we analyze the sources of growth volatility dynamics in the world in terms of volatility proportions from and to others. We find that high-income growth countries are net transmitters, while low-income growth countries are net recipients of growth volatility. We also find that it takes several years for low-income growth countries to absorb growth shocks of global nature. Overall, our analyses illustrate the importance of partnership in risk sharing as it is related to portfolio strategies and risk management.

Suggested Citation

  • Abosedra, Salah & Arayssi, Mahmoud & Ben Sita, Bernard & Mutshinda, Crispin, 2020. "Exploring GDP growth volatility spillovers across countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 577-589.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:89:y:2020:i:c:p:577-589
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2019.11.015
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    GDP growth; Growth volatility; Spillover; Vector autoregression; Variance decomposition;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

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