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What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?

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  • Akram, Tanweer
  • Li, Huiqing

Abstract

U.S. government indebtedness and fiscal deficits increased notably following the Global Financial Crisis. Yet long-term interest rates and U.S. Treasury yields have remained remarkably low. What keeps long-term interest rates so low? This paper relies on a simple model, based on John Maynard Keynes’ view that the central bank's actions are the key drivers of long-term interest rates, to explain the behavior of long-term interest rates in the U.S. The empirical findings confirm that short-term interest rates are the most important determinants of long-term interest rates in the U.S. Contrary to conventional wisdom, higher government indebtedness has a negative effect on long-term interest rates, particularly on a long run basis. However, in the short run, higher government indebtedness has a positive effect on long-term interest rates. These are relevant for contemporary policy debates and macroeconomic theory.

Suggested Citation

  • Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:380-390
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.017
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    3. Robert S. Kravchuk, 2020. "Post‐Keynesian Public Budgeting & Finance: Assessing Contributions From Modern Monetary Theory," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 95-123, September.
    4. Salisu, Afees A. & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "The behavior of exchange rate and stock returns in high and low interest rate environments," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 138-149.
    5. Eduardo Garzón Espinosa & Bibiana Medialdea García & Esteban Cruz Hidalgo, 2021. "Fiscal Policy Approaches: An Inquiring Look From The Modern Monetary Theory," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 55(4), pages 999-1022, October.
    6. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "Multifactor Keynesian Models of the Long-Term Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_991, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Tanweer Akram, 2019. "Prospects and Risks for the Global Economy in 2019," CPD Working Paper 130, Centre for Policy Dialogue (CPD).
    8. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    10. Agnieszka Gehringer & Thomas Mayer, 2019. "Understanding low interest rates: evidence from Japan, Euro Area, United States and United Kingdom," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 28-53, February.
    11. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    12. Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    13. Osoro, Jared & Cheruiyot, Kiplangat Josea, 2024. "Fiscal and monetary policy interaction during economic shocks: A wedge or bridge for bank profitability?," KBA Centre for Research on Financial Markets and Policy Working Paper Series 76, Kenya Bankers Association (KBA).
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    E43; E50; E58; E60; G10; G12; Government bond yields; Long-term interest rates; Short-term interest rates; Monetary policy; Central bank; John Maynard Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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