IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sae/amerec/v66y2021i2p323-339.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields

Author

Listed:
  • Tanweer Akram

Abstract

Keynes argued that the central bank can influence the long-term interest rate on government bonds and the shape of the yield curve mainly through the short-term interest rate. Several recent empirical studies that examine the dynamics of government bond yields not only substantiate Keynes’s view that the long-term interest rate responds markedly to the short-term interest rate but also have relevance for macroeconomic theory and policy. This article relates Keynes’s discussions of money, the state theory of money, financial markets, investors’ expectations, uncertainty, and liquidity preference to the dynamics of government bond yields for countries with monetary sovereignty. Investors’ psychology, herding behavior in financial markets, and uncertainty about the future reinforce the effects of the short-term interest rate and the central bank’s monetary policy actions on the long-term interest rate. JEL classifications : E12; E40; E43; E50; E58; E60; F30; G10; G12; H62; H63

Suggested Citation

  • Tanweer Akram, 2021. "A Note Concerning the Dynamics of Government Bond Yields," The American Economist, Sage Publications, vol. 66(2), pages 323-339, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:66:y:2021:i:2:p:323-339
    DOI: 10.1177/0569434520988275
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0569434520988275
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1177/0569434520988275?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Charles Yuji Horioka & Takaaki Nomoto & Akiko Terada-Hagiwara, 2013. "Why has Japan’s Massive Government Debt Not Wreaked Havoc (Yet)?," UP School of Economics Discussion Papers 201310, University of the Philippines School of Economics.
    2. Sims, S.A., 2012. "Gaps in the institutional structure of the euro area," Financial Stability Review, Banque de France, issue 16, pages 217-223, April.
    3. Simon, Herbert A, 1978. "Rationality as Process and as Product of Thought," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 68(2), pages 1-16, May.
    4. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    5. Marc Lavoie, 2014. "Post-Keynesian Economics: New Foundations," Post-Print hal-01343652, HAL.
    6. George A. Akerlof, 2009. "How Human Psychology Drives the Economy and Why It Matters," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1175-1175.
    7. repec:oup:ecpoli:v:29:y:2014:i:77:p:5-44 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Oļegs Tkačevs & Kārlis Vilerts, 2019. "The Impact of Government Borrowing Costs on Fiscal Discipline," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(3), pages 446-471, August.
    9. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "An inquiry concerning long-term U.S. interest rates using monthly data," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(24), pages 2594-2621, May.
    11. L. Randall Wray, 2024. "Modern Money Theory," Springer Books, Springer, edition 3, number 978-3-031-47884-0, September.
    12. Gary Hansen & Selahattin Imrohoroglu, 2016. "Fiscal Reform and Government Debt in Japan: A Neoclassical Perspective," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 21, pages 201-224, July.
    13. Tanweer Akram, 2019. "The Japanese Economy: Stagnation, Recovery, and Challenges," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 403-410, April.
    14. Matteo Deleidi & Enrico Sergio Levrero, 2021. "Monetary policy and long‐term interest rates: Evidence from the U.S. economy," Metroeconomica, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 72(1), pages 121-147, February.
    15. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    16. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.
    17. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics of Government Bond Yields in the Eurozone," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_889, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Poghosyan, Tigran, 2014. "Long-run and short-run determinants of sovereign bond yields in advanced economies," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 100-114.
    19. Jan Kregel, 2011. "Was Keynes's Monetary Policy, a outrance in the Treatise, a Forerunnner of ZIRP and QE? Did He Change His Mind in the General Theory?," Economics Policy Note Archive 11-04, Levy Economics Institute.
    20. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2015. "A Keynesian explanation of Indian government bond yields," Journal of Post Keynesian Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(4), pages 565-587, November.
    21. Mr. Manmohan S. Kumar & Mr. Emanuele Baldacci, 2010. "Fiscal Deficits, Public Debt, and Sovereign Bond Yields," IMF Working Papers 2010/184, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Joseph W. Gruber & Steven B. Kamin, 2012. "Fiscal Positions and Government Bond Yields in OECD Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(8), pages 1563-1587, December.
    23. Christopher A. Sims, 2013. "Paper Money," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(2), pages 563-584, April.
    24. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    25. Waikei Raphael Lam & Kiichi Tokuoka, 2013. "Assessing The Risks To The Japanese Government Bond Market," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 4(01), pages 1-15.
    26. Woodford, Michael, 2001. "Fiscal Requirements for Price Stability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 33(3), pages 669-728, August.
    27. Simon, Herbert A., 1984. "On the behavioral and rational foundations of economic dynamics," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 5(1), pages 35-55, March.
    28. Paul Davidson, 2015. "Post Keynesian Theory and Policy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 16559.
    29. John B Taylor, 2007. "The Explanatory Power of Monetary Policy Rules," Business Economics, Palgrave Macmillan;National Association for Business Economics, vol. 42(4), pages 8-15, October.
    30. Cebula, Richard, 2014. "An Empirical Investigation into the Impact of U.S. Federal Government Budget Deficits on the Real Interest Rate Yield on Intermediate-term Treasury Debt Issues, 1972-2012," MPRA Paper 55269, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    31. Hrishikesh Vinod & Lekha S. Chakraborty & Honey Karun, 2014. "If Deficits Are Not the Culprit, What Determines Indian Interest Rates? An Evaluation Using the Maximum Entropy Bootstrap Method," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_811, Levy Economics Institute.
    32. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    33. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "Understanding the Low Yields of the Long-Term Japanese Sovereign Debt," Journal of Economic Issues, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 331-340.
    34. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2014. "Defying gravity: can Japanese sovereign debt continue to increase without a crisis? [Fiscal discipline and the cost of public debt service: some estimates for OECD countries]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 29(77), pages 5-44.
    35. L. Randall Wray, 1998. "Understanding Modern Money," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 1668.
    36. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "JGBs’ chronically low nominal yields: a VEC approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(53), pages 5873-5893, November.
    37. Levrero, Enrico Sergio & Deleidi, Matteo, 2019. "The causal relationship between short- and long-term interest rates: an empirical assessment of the United States," MPRA Paper 93608, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    38. Goodhart, Charles A. E., 1998. "The two concepts of money: implications for the analysis of optimal currency areas," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 407-432, August.
    39. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.
    40. Louis-Philippe Rochon & Sergio Rossi (ed.), 2017. "Advances in Endogenous Money Analysis," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 4260.
    41. Bindseil, Ulrich, 2004. "Monetary Policy Implementation: Theory, past, and present," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199274543.
    42. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1986. "Rationality of Self and Others in an Economic System," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 59(4), pages 385-399, October.
    43. Arrow, Kenneth J, 1994. "Methodological Individualism and Social Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 1-9, May.
    44. Dimitris Malliaropulos & Petros Migiakis, 2018. "Quantitative easing and sovereign bond yields: a global perspective," Working Papers 253, Bank of Greece.
    45. Richard J. Cebula, 2014. "An empirical investigation into the impact of US federal government budget deficits on the real interest rate yield on intermediate-term treasury issues, 1972-2012," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 46(28), pages 3483-3493, October.
    46. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2019. "The Long-Run Determinants of Indian Government Bond Yields," Asian Development Review, MIT Press, vol. 36(1), pages 168-205, March.
    47. Takeo Hoshi & Takatoshi Ito, 2013. "Is the Sky the Limit? Can Japanese Government Bonds Continue to Defy Gravity?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 8(2), pages 218-247, December.
    48. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
    49. Paul Davidson, 2011. "Post Keynesian Macroeconomic Theory, Second Edition," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 14290.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "An empirical analysis of long-term Brazilian interest rates," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 16(9), pages 1-20, September.
    2. Anupam Das & Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Keynesian analysis of Canadian government securities yields," PSL Quarterly Review, Economia civile, vol. 73(294), pages 241-260.
    3. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "Australian Government Bonds’ Nominal Yields: A Keynesian Perspective," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 15(01), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "Some Empirical Models of Japanese Government Bond Yields Using Daily Data," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_962, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2020. "The Empirics of UK Gilts' Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_969, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2020. "An Empirical Analysis of Long-Term Brazilian Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_956, Levy Economics Institute.
    7. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2018. "The Dynamics of Japanese Government Bonds' Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_906, Levy Economics Institute.
    8. Tanweer Akram & Syed Al-Helal Uddin, 2021. "The Empirics of Long-Term Mexican Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_984, Levy Economics Institute.
    9. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2017. "The Dynamics Of Government Bond Yields In The Euro Zone," Annals of Financial Economics (AFE), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 12(03), pages 1-18, September.
    10. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2018. "Australian Government Bonds' Nominal Yields: An Empirical Analysis," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_910, Levy Economics Institute.
    11. Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Note Concerning Government Bond Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_977, Levy Economics Institute.
    12. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2019. "The Impact of the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy on Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_938, Levy Economics Institute.
    13. Akram, Tanweer & Li, Huiqing, 2017. "What keeps long-term U.S. interest rates so low?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 380-390.
    14. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2020. "The Empirics of Canadian Government Securities Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_944, Levy Economics Institute.
    15. Tanweer Akram & Huiqing Li, 2016. "The Empirics of Long-Term US Interest Rates," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_863, Levy Economics Institute.
    16. B M, Lithin & chakraborty, Suman & iyer, Vishwanathan & M N, Nikhil & ledwani, Sanket, 2022. "Modeling asymmetric sovereign bond yield volatility with univariate GARCH models: Evidence from India," MPRA Paper 117067, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 05 Jan 2023.
    17. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2015. "Does Keynesian Theory Explain Indian Government Bond Yields?," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_834, Levy Economics Institute.
    18. Tanweer Akram & Anupam Das, 2014. "The Determinants of Long-Term Japanese Government Bonds' Low Nominal Yields," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_818, Levy Economics Institute.
    19. Robert S. Kravchuk, 2020. "Post‐Keynesian Public Budgeting & Finance: Assessing Contributions From Modern Monetary Theory," Public Budgeting & Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 40(3), pages 95-123, September.
    20. Tanweer Akram, 2020. "A Simple Model of the Long-Term Interest Rate," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_951, Levy Economics Institute.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    money; state theory of money; chartalism; monetary theory; central bank; government bond yields; interest rate; John Maynard Keynes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E40 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - General
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sae:amerec:v:66:y:2021:i:2:p:323-339. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: SAGE Publications (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://journals.sagepub.com/home/aex .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.