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Real interest rates and demographic developments across generations: A panel-data analysis over two centuries

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  • Lucas Marc Fuhrer
  • Nils Herger

Abstract

This paper empirically examines the effect of population growth on long-term real interest rates. Although this effect is well founded in macroeconomic theory, the corresponding empirical results have been rather tenuous and surprisingly unstable. As the demographic interest rate impact is theoretically based on intergenerational relationships, we not only contemplate gross population growth rates but also distinguish between demographic growth resulting from a birth surplus and net migration. Within a panel covering 12 countries and the years since 1820, our results suggest that there is a positive, statistically significant, and stable effect from the birth surplus on real interest rates. Conversely, the corresponding effect of net migration seems to be much more volatile. Hence, our results suggest that it is mainly population growth occurring through a birth surplus that affects the equilibrium real interest rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Lucas Marc Fuhrer & Nils Herger, 2021. "Real interest rates and demographic developments across generations: A panel-data analysis over two centuries," Working Papers 2021-07, Swiss National Bank.
    • Handle: RePEc:snb:snbwpa:2021-07
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lucas Fuhrer & Nils Herger, 2022. "Real interest rates and population growth across generations," Working Papers 22.04, Swiss National Bank, Study Center Gerzensee.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Demographics; population growth; real interest rate;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts

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