IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v60y2017icp122-131.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty

Author

Listed:
  • Tsai, I-Chun

Abstract

This study explores the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) in four countries or regions (China, Japan, Europe, and the United States) on the contagion risk of investments in the global stock market. The stock returns of 22 stock markets worldwide are analyzed to determine which region’s EPU exhibits the greatest effect on regional systematic risk in the global stock market and on volatility risk in individual stock markets. First, all of the samples, the markets of different continents and the spillover indices of the developed and emerging markets, are calculated to observe the dynamic correlation among these markets with the aim of quantifying regional systematic risk and further examining the contagion risk effect of EPU. The results indicate the following: EPU in China is the most influential, and its contagion risk spreads to different regional markets, except for Europe; the effect of EPU in the United States is inferior to that in China; EPU in Japan merely influences contagion risk in emerging markets; contagion risk in European markets is not influenced by the four EPU indices; and EPU in Europe is not influenced by contagion risk in the global stock market. However, according to the volatility risk in each market, the EPU in Europe and China respectively influence Asian countries and European countries the most. These results may be attributable to the extremely high trade dependence among these countries because the performance of international enterprises is mainly determined by the economic policies of their trading partners.

Suggested Citation

  • Tsai, I-Chun, 2017. "The source of global stock market risk: A viewpoint of economic policy uncertainty," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 122-131.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:122-131
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999316303030
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2016.09.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Nodari, Gabriela, 2014. "Financial regulation policy uncertainty and credit spreads in the US," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 122-132.
    2. Francis X. Diebold & Kamil Yilmaz, 2009. "Measuring Financial Asset Return and Volatility Spillovers, with Application to Global Equity Markets," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 119(534), pages 158-171, January.
    3. Wang, Yudong & Zhang, Bing & Diao, Xundi & Wu, Chongfeng, 2015. "Commodity price changes and the predictability of economic policy uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 127(C), pages 39-42.
    4. Caggiano, Giovanni & Castelnuovo, Efrem & Groshenny, Nicolas, 2014. "Uncertainty shocks and unemployment dynamics in U.S. recessions," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(C), pages 78-92.
    5. Nicholas Bloom, 2009. "The Impact of Uncertainty Shocks," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 77(3), pages 623-685, May.
    6. Wang, Yizhong & Chen, Carl R. & Huang, Ying Sophie, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and corporate investment: Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 227-243.
    7. Colombo, Valentina, 2013. "Economic policy uncertainty in the US: Does it matter for the Euro area?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(1), pages 39-42.
    8. Li, Xiao-Ming & Zhang, Bing & Gao, Ruzhao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty shocks and stock–bond correlations: Evidence from the US market," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 132(C), pages 91-96.
    9. Ko, Jun-Hyung & Lee, Chang-Min, 2015. "International economic policy uncertainty and stock prices: Wavelet approach," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 118-122.
    10. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    11. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
    12. Diebold, Francis X. & Yilmaz, Kamil, 2012. "Better to give than to receive: Predictive directional measurement of volatility spillovers," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 57-66.
    13. Alexopoulos, Michelle & Cohen, Jon, 2009. "Measuring our ignorance, one book at a time: New indicators of technological change, 1909-1949," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(4), pages 450-470, May.
    14. Liu, Li & Zhang, Tao, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and stock market volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 15(C), pages 99-105.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jing Yuan & Yajing Dong & Weijie Zhai & Zongwu Cai, 2021. "Economic Policy Uncertainty: Cross-Country Linkages and Spillover Effects on Economic Development in Some Belt and Road Countries," WORKING PAPERS SERIES IN THEORETICAL AND APPLIED ECONOMICS 202110, University of Kansas, Department of Economics, revised Nov 2021.
    2. Phan, Dinh Hoang Bach & Sharma, Susan Sunila & Tran, Vuong Thao, 2018. "Can economic policy uncertainty predict stock returns? Global evidence," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 134-150.
    3. Al-Thaqeb, Saud Asaad & Algharabali, Barrak Ghanim, 2019. "Economic policy uncertainty: A literature review," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 20(C).
    4. Yao, Can-Zhong & Sun, Bo-Yi, 2018. "The study on the tail dependence structure between the economic policy uncertainty and several financial markets," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 245-265.
    5. Tan, Xueping & Zhong, Yiran & Vivian, Andrew & Geng, Yong & Wang, Ziyi & Zhao, Difei, 2024. "Towards an era of multi-source uncertainty: A systematic and bibliometric analysis," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 95(PB).
    6. Das, Debojyoti & Kannadhasan, M. & Bhattacharyya, Malay, 2019. "Do the emerging stock markets react to international economic policy uncertainty, geopolitical risk and financial stress alike?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 1-19.
    7. Christopher Thiem, 2020. "Cross-Category, Trans-Pacific Spillovers of Policy Uncertainty and Financial Market Volatility," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 317-342, April.
    8. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis, 2019. "Forecasting European economic policy uncertainty," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 66(1), pages 94-114, February.
    9. Rehman, Mobeen Ur & Sensoy, Ahmet & Eraslan, Veysel & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2021. "Sensitivity of US equity returns to economic policy uncertainty and investor sentiments," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    10. Tihana Škrinjarić & Zrinka Orlović, 2020. "Economic Policy Uncertainty and Stock Market Spillovers: Case of Selected CEE Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 8(7), pages 1-33, July.
    11. Balcilar, Mehmet & Ozdemir, Zeynel Abidin & Ozdemir, Huseyin & Wohar, Mark E., 2020. "Transmission of US and EU Economic Policy Uncertainty Shock to Asian Economies in Bad and Good Times," IZA Discussion Papers 13274, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    12. Nguyen, Canh Phuc & Le, Thai-Ha & Su, Thanh Dinh, 2020. "Economic policy uncertainty and credit growth: Evidence from a global sample," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C).
    13. Lee, Jungho & Xu, Jianhuan, 2019. "Tax uncertainty and business activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 158-184.
    14. Lien, Donald & Zhang, Jiewen & Yu, Xiaojian, 2022. "Effects of economic policy uncertainty: A regime switching connectedness approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Gong, Yuting & He, Zhongzhi & Xue, Wenjun, 2022. "EPU spillovers and stock return predictability: A cross-country study," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    16. Yoshito Funashima, 2022. "Economic policy uncertainty and unconventional monetary policy," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 90(3), pages 278-292, June.
    17. Arigoni, Filippo & Lenarčič, Črt, 2020. "The impact of trade policy uncertainty shocks on the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 100832, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Pedro Salgado, 2024. "Economic policy uncertainties and business confidence in Japan," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 44(1), pages 38-56.
    19. Guo, Junjie & Li, Youshu & Shao, Qinglong, 2022. "Cross-category spillover effects of economic policy uncertainty between China and the US: Time and frequency evidence," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    20. Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic policy uncertainty; Regional systematic risk; Spillover; Volatility; The global stock market;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • F65 - International Economics - - Economic Impacts of Globalization - - - Finance
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:60:y:2017:i:c:p:122-131. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.