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Tax uncertainty and business activity

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  • Lee, Jungho
  • Xu, Jianhuan

Abstract

We investigate the extent to which uncertainties about tax policies affect business activities. We develop a statewide tax-uncertainty measure (TU measure) and show that it captures state corporate tax uncertainty. By comparing adjacent counties across state borders, we show that increasing tax uncertainty by one standard deviation (a 30% increase in the TU measure) leads to a 0.17% point per-year decrease in the growth rate of establishments over two years. The result holds after conducting a variety of robustness checks and is not likely to be driven by general state-policy uncertainties.

Suggested Citation

  • Lee, Jungho & Xu, Jianhuan, 2019. "Tax uncertainty and business activity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 158-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:103:y:2019:i:c:p:158-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2018.09.013
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    Cited by:

    1. Suleyman Kasal & Sebnem Tosunoglu, 2022. "Effects of Fiscal Policy Uncertainty on Turkish Economy," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2022(6), pages 538-566.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    State government; Uncertainty; Entrepreneurship;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • H20 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - General

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