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Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India

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  • Jawaid, Syed Tehseen
  • Raza, Syed Ali

Abstract

This study investigates the effect of terms of trade on economic growth of India by using the annual time series data from the period of 1980 to 2010. The ARDL bound testing cointegration confirms the significant positive relationship between terms of trade and economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Results of Granger causality, Toda and Yamamoto Modified Wald causality and variance decomposition tests confirm the bidirectional causal relationship between terms of trade and economic growth in India. Rolling window estimation indicates that the terms of trade is having positive long-run coefficients throughout the sample period. Results of CUSUM and CUSUM of square suggest that there is no structural instability in the residuals of equation of economic growth in short run. It is suggested that beneficial terms of trade is better for economic growth in India. At this stage we can set the direction of future research that the relationship between commodity groupwise and countrywise bilateral terms of trade with economic growth should be analyzed. These results would be helpful for policy makers of India to frame growth enhancing countrywise as well as commodity-wise trade policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:33:y:2013:i:c:p:940-946
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2013.04.043
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    Cited by:

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    4. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Zia Ur Rehman Rao & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
    5. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2021. "Effect of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences offered by the QUAD on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," EconStor Preprints 242848, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.
    6. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    7. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Kalim-Ullah Bhat & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effect of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of China," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 157-168, November.
    8. Gnangnon, Sèna Kimm, 2023. "Effects of the Utilization of Non-Reciprocal Trade Preferences Offered by QUAD Countries on Economic Growth in Beneficiary Countries," KDI Journal of Economic Policy, Korea Development Institute (KDI), vol. 45(1), pages 33-68.
    9. Umer Shahzad & Xiaoyin He & Said Muhammad, 2023. "How Terms of Trade Impact Economic Growth: The Case of the United States," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    10. Chaudhuri, Sarbajit & Biswas, Anindya, 2016. "Endogenous labour market imperfection, foreign direct investment and external terms-of-trade shocks in a developing economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 416-424.
    11. Hem C. Basnet & Satis C. Devkota & Mukti P. Upadhyay, 2021. "Terms of trade and real domestic income: New evidence from South and Southeast Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4315-4331, July.
    12. Saleem, 2016. "Impact of Monetary Policy on Private Investment: Evidence from Pakistan," Journal of Finance and Economics Research, Geist Science, Iqra University, Faculty of Business Administration, vol. 1(2), pages 134-146, October.
    13. Imtiaz Arif Lubna Khan Syed Ali Raza, 2018. "External Resources and Economic Growth: An Empirical Analysis of South Asian Countries," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 21(2), pages 1-17, November.
    14. Ghoshray, Atanu, 2015. "A robust estimation of the terms of trade between the United Kingdom and British India, 1858–1947," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 53-57.
    15. Syed Ali Raza & Sahar Afshan, 2017. "Determinants of Exchange Rate in Pakistan: Revisited with Structural Break Testing," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 18(4), pages 825-848, August.
    16. Rawat, Amna Sohail & Khan, Lubna, 2020. "Exploring the link between Public Investment and Long Run Economic Growth — A Case of a Developing Country," Public Finance Quarterly, Corvinus University of Budapest, vol. 65(2), pages 151-167.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade; Economic growth;

    JEL classification:

    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies

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