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Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation

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  • Syed Jawaid
  • Abdul Waheed

Abstract

This study examines the effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth for a sample of 94 developed and developing countries, using five year average annual data from 2004 to 2008. The cross country ordinary least square estimation results indicate significant positive effect of terms of trade on economic growth. Furthermore, volatility of terms of trade has significant positive effect on economic growth. To test the robustness of initial results, sensitivity analysis has been performed using different additional variables, sample size and various proxies of volatility variable. The initial results were found robust despite the inclusion of various variables in the basic model and use of various proxies for volatility of terms of trade.
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  • Syed Jawaid & Abdul Waheed, 2011. "Effects of Terms of Trade and its Volatility on Economic Growth: A Cross Country Empirical Investigation," Transition Studies Review, Springer;Central Eastern European University Network (CEEUN), vol. 18(2), pages 217-229, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:trstrv:v:18:y:2011:i:2:p:217-229
    DOI: 10.1007/s11300-011-0201-7
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    Cited by:

    1. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed & Desalegn, Gashaw, 2017. "Effects of Terms of Trade and Its Volatility on Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," Ethiopian Journal of Economics, Ethiopian Economics Association, vol. 27(01), April.
    2. Trofimov, Ivan D., 2018. "Income terms of trade and economic convergence: Evidence from Latin America," MPRA Paper 87598, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Nzeh Innocent Chile & Okoli Uju Victoria & Okolie David Ogomegbunam & Okolie Jonathan Ibekwe, 2024. "Marginal propensity to import and terms of trade: Panel granger causality evidence from the East African Community (EAC)," Economic and Regional Studies / Studia Ekonomiczne i Regionalne, Sciendo, vol. 17(2), pages 251-269.
    4. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Syed Ali Raza, 2012. "Workers' remittances and economic growth in China and Korea: an empirical analysis," Journal of Chinese Economic and Foreign Trade Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 5(3), pages 185-193, September.
    5. Hem C. Basnet & Satis C. Devkota & Mukti P. Upadhyay, 2021. "Terms of trade and real domestic income: New evidence from South and Southeast Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(3), pages 4315-4331, July.
    6. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Effects of terms of trade and its volatility on economic growth in India," MPRA Paper 38998, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Umer Shahzad & Xiaoyin He & Said Muhammad, 2023. "How Terms of Trade Impact Economic Growth: The Case of the United States," SAGE Open, , vol. 13(2), pages 21582440231, May.
    8. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Remittances, Growth and Convergence: Evidence from Developed and Developing Countries," MPRA Paper 39002, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Talat Afza & Khalid Ahmed & Muhammad Shahbaz, 2016. "Does Harberger–Laursen–Metzler (HLM) Exist in Pakistan? Cointegration, Causality and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition Tests," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(4), pages 759-778, August.
    10. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Kalim-Ullah Bhat & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effect of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of China," Emerging Economy Studies, International Management Institute, vol. 4(2), pages 157-168, November.
    11. Awel, Ahmed Mohammed, 2012. "Terms of Trade Volatility and Economic Growth in Sub-Saharan Africa," MPRA Paper 45453, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Wasim Qazi & Syed Raza & Syed Jawaid, 2014. "Higher education and growth performance of Pakistan: evidence from multivariate framework," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 48(3), pages 1651-1665, May.
    13. Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Syed Ali Raza & Khalid Mustafa & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2016. "Does Inward Foreign Direct Investment Lead Export Performance in Pakistan?," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 17(6), pages 1296-1313, December.
    14. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Foreign Direct Investment, Growth and Convergence Hypothesis: A Cross Country Analysis," MPRA Paper 39000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Idrisov, Georgy & Ponomarev, Yury & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergey, 2016. "Terms of trade and Russian economic development," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 2(3), pages 279-301.
    16. Syed Ali Raza & Syed Tehseen Jawaid & Mohammad Haris Siddiqui, 2016. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth in South Asia," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 17(2), pages 200-215, September.
    17. Idrisov, Georgiy (Идрисов, Георгий) & Ponomarev, Yuriy (Пономарев, Юрий) & Sinelnikov-Murylev, Sergei (Синельников-Мурылев, Сергей), 2015. "Terms of trade and economic development of modern Russia [Условия Торговли И Экономическое Развитие Современной России]," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 3, pages 7-37.
    18. Khalil Jebran & Amjad Iqbal & Zia Ur Rehman Rao & Arshad Ali, 2018. "Effects of Terms of Trade on Economic Growth of Pakistan," Foreign Trade Review, , vol. 53(1), pages 1-11, February.
    19. Désiré Avom & Brice Kamguia & Joseph Pasky Ngameni, 2021. "Does volatility hinder economic complexity?," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1187-1202.
    20. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2013. "Effects of terms of trade on growth performance of India," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 940-946.
    21. Gulzar Ali & Zhaohua Li, 2016. "Analyzing the role of Imports in Economic Growth of Pakistan; Evidence from ARDL Bound Testing Approach," International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, Human Resource Management Academic Research Society, International Journal of Academic Research in Business and Social Sciences, vol. 6(9), pages 19-37, September.
    22. Jawaid, Syed Tehseen & Raza, Syed Ali, 2012. "Workers’ Remittances and Economic Growth in South Asia," MPRA Paper 39001, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. Syed Ali Raza & Mohd Zaini Abd Karim, 2018. "Influence of Systemic Banking Crises and Currency Crises on the FDI-Growth Nexus: Evidence from China," Global Business Review, International Management Institute, vol. 19(3), pages 572-589, June.
    24. Fabrice Nzepang & Saturnin Bertrand Nguenda Anya, 2022. "Effects of ICTs on the Terms of Trade of Sub-Saharan African Economies," Journal of African Trade, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 107-119, December.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Terms of trade; Volatility; Economic growth; F13; D80; F43;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission
    • F13 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Policy; International Trade Organizations
    • D80 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - General

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