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Revisiting the FDI-led growth Hypothesis: The case of China

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  • Yalta, A. Yasemin

Abstract

We employ simulation based inference to investigate the causal relationship between foreign direct investment and gross domestic product in China for the 1982–2008 period, both in a bivariate and a multivariate framework. Our maximum entropy bootstrap based approach, which avoids pre-test biases while also being less affected from the size distortion problem, shows that a statistically significant relationship between FDI and GDP growth does not exist. We also explore whether this result is driven by the level of financial development and we find that there is no evidence of a change in the noncausal relationship due to this contingency effect. Our results indicate that FDI does not necessarily lead to higher economic growth at the aggregate level and suggest the need for undertaking disaggregated analyses using industrial and provincial level data for the formulation of effective macroeconomic policies concerning the flows of FDI.

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  • Yalta, A. Yasemin, 2013. "Revisiting the FDI-led growth Hypothesis: The case of China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 335-343.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:31:y:2013:i:c:p:335-343
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.11.030
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    7. Mohamad A. Abou Hamia, 2022. "What level of international technology should developing countries transfer to sustain their economic growth?," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4217-4239, December.
    8. Cucos Paula – Roxana, 2016. "The Effects Of Foreign Direct Investment On The Economies Of Central And Eastern Europe Countries," Annals - Economy Series, Constantin Brancusi University, Faculty of Economics, vol. 4, pages 200-207, August.
    9. Themba G. Chirwa & Nicholas M. Odhiambo, 2019. "The nexus between key macroeconomic determinants and economic growth in Zambia: a dynamic multivariate Granger causality linkage," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(1), pages 301-327, July.
    10. Lukman Ayinde Olorogun, 2022. "Revisiting the Nexus of FDI-Led Growth Hypothesis and Economic Development in Rwanda: a Johansen-ARDL Approach to Cointegration," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 13(4), pages 2695-2717, December.
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    17. Rudra P. Pradhan, Mak B. Arvin, & Mahendhiran Nair, Jay Mittal, & Neville R. Norman, 2017. "Telecommunications infrastructure and usage and the FDI–growth nexus: evidence from Asian-21 countries "Abstract: This paper examines causal relationships between telecommunications infrastructur," Department of Economics - Working Papers Series 2032, The University of Melbourne.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    FDI; Economic growth; China; Bootstrap;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F21 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Investment; Long-Term Capital Movements
    • F43 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Economic Growth of Open Economies
    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling

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