IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v30y2013icp799-813.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Markups and oil prices in Canada

Author

Listed:
  • Khan, Hashmat
  • Kim, Bae-Geun

Abstract

The markup (the ratio of price to marginal cost) in Canada has risen steadily since the early 1990s suggesting a widening gap between the actual and the efficient level of output and a declining share of labor income in GDP. It exhibits non-stationary movements over the sample period 1982Q1 to 2009Q4, allowing us to identify a permanent markup shock. We provide evidence that oil price movements are important for understanding the behavior of the markup, and separately identify both oil price shocks and permanent non-oil markup shocks. Our key findings are: (1) oil price shocks and non-oil markup shocks account for 50 to 80percent of the variation in the markup, with the former dominating at shorter horizons; (2) the role of oil price shocks is prominent in accounting for the upward trend in the markup since the mid-1990s; (3) the direct effects of oil prices on the markup in the mining sector (which includes the oil-producing sector) have contributed the most to the upward trend in the aggregate markup; and (4) other explanations such as market structure shifts, trend inflation movements and the falling relative price of investment do not appear to account for the behavior of the markup.

Suggested Citation

  • Khan, Hashmat & Kim, Bae-Geun, 2013. "Markups and oil prices in Canada," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 799-813.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:799-813
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999312003549
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2012.10.017?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ian Domowitz & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1986. "Business Cycles and the Relationship Between Concentration and Price-Cost Margins," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 17(1), pages 1-17, Spring.
    2. Maria Maher & Michael Wise, 2005. "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in the Netherlands," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 422, OECD Publishing.
    3. Tom Holden, 2010. "Products, patents and productivity persistence: A DSGE model of endogenous growth," Economics Series Working Papers 512, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    4. Danny Leung, 2008. "Markups in Canada: Have They Changed and Why?," Staff Working Papers 08-7, Bank of Canada.
    5. Maria Maher & Jay C. Shaffer, 2005. "Product Market Competition and Economic Performance in Canada," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 421, OECD Publishing.
    6. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    7. Kim, Bae-Geun, 2010. "Identifying a permanent markup shock and its implications for macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1471-1491, August.
    8. Galí, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation Dynamics: A Structural Economic Analysis," CEPR Discussion Papers 2246, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    9. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark & Lopez-Salido, J. David, 2001. "European inflation dynamics," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(7), pages 1237-1270.
    10. Colin Ellis, 2006. "Elasticities, markups and technical progress: evidence from a state-space approach," Bank of England working papers 300, Bank of England.
    11. Diego Comin & Mark Gertler, 2006. "Medium-Term Business Cycles," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 96(3), pages 523-551, June.
    12. Hervé Boulhol, 2008. "The Convergence of Price–cost Margins," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 19(2), pages 221-240, April.
    13. Christopher J. Erceg & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher Gust, 2005. "Can Long-Run Restrictions Identify Technology Shocks?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 3(6), pages 1237-1278, December.
    14. Jaimovich, Nir & Floetotto, Max, 2008. "Firm dynamics, markup variations, and the business cycle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(7), pages 1238-1252, October.
    15. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1991. "Markups and the Business Cycle," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1991, Volume 6, pages 63-140, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), 1999. "Handbook of Macroeconomics," Handbook of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, edition 1, volume 1, number 1.
    17. Lutz Kilian, 2009. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 99(3), pages 1053-1069, June.
    18. Gagnon, Edith & Khan, Hashmat, 2005. "New Phillips curve under alternative production technologies for Canada, the United States, and the Euro area," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 49(6), pages 1571-1602, August.
    19. Faust, Jon & Leeper, Eric M, 1997. "When Do Long-Run Identifying Restrictions Give Reliable Results?," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 15(3), pages 345-353, July.
    20. Gali, Jordi & Gertler, Mark, 1999. "Inflation dynamics: A structural econometric analysis," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 195-222, October.
    21. Susanto Basu, 1996. "Procyclical Productivity: Increasing Returns or Cyclical Utilization?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 111(3), pages 719-751.
    22. Bils, Mark, 1987. "The Cyclical Behavior of Marginal Cost and Price," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(5), pages 838-855, December.
    23. Ali Dib, 2008. "Welfare Effects of Commodity Price and Exchange Rate Volatilities in a Multi-Sector Small Open Economy Model," Staff Working Papers 08-8, Bank of Canada.
    24. Julio J. Rotemberg & Michael Woodford, 1993. "Dynamic General Equilibrium Models with Imperfectly Competitive Product Markets," NBER Working Papers 4502, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    25. Ciobanu, Oana Wang, Weimin, 2012. "Firm Dynamics: Firm Entry and Exit in Canada, 2000 to 2008," The Canadian Economy in Transition 2012022e, Statistics Canada, Economic Analysis Division.
    26. Timothy G. Conley & Bill Dupor, 2003. "A Spatial Analysis of Sectoral Complementarity," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 111(2), pages 311-352, April.
    27. Herve Boulhol, 2010. "Pro‐competitive Effect of Trade and Non‐decreasing Price‐Cost Margins," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 72(3), pages 326-356, June.
    28. Rotemberg, Julio J. & Woodford, Michael, 1999. "The cyclical behavior of prices and costs," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 16, pages 1051-1135, Elsevier.
    29. Loukas Karabarbounis & Brent Neiman, 2012. "Declining Labor Shares and the Global Rise of Corporate Saving," NBER Working Papers 18154, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    30. Benabou, Roland, 1992. "Inflation and markups : Theories and evidence from the retail trade sector," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(2-3), pages 566-574, April.
    31. Rodriguez Francisco & Jayadev Arjun, 2013. "The Declining Labor Share of Income," Journal of Globalization and Development, De Gruyter, vol. 3(2), pages 1-18, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Pavlov, Oscar, 2016. "Can firm entry explain news-driven fluctuations?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 427-434.
    2. Ma, Xiaohan, 2023. "Oil uncertainty and the price-cost markup: Evidence from U.S. data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    3. Ms. Deniz O Igan & Ali Mirzaei & Tomoe Moore, 2018. "How Do Regulations of Entry and Credit Access Relate to Industry Competition? International Evidence," IMF Working Papers 2018/084, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bjørnar Karlsen Kivedal, 2018. "A new Keynesian framework and wage and price dynamics in the USA," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 1271-1289, November.
    5. Bae-Geun Kim, 2016. "Explaining movements of the labor share in the Korean economy: factor substitution, markups and bargaining power," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, September.
    6. Bae-Geun Kim, 2016. "Explaining movements of the labor share in the Korean economy: factor substitution, markups and bargaining power," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 14(3), pages 327-352, September.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. J. Stephen Ferris, 2012. "The Relationship Between Government Size and Economic Performance with Particular Application to New Zealand," Carleton Economic Papers 12-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 25 Apr 2013.
    2. Hashmat Khan & Bae-Geun Kim, 2011. "The Effects of Permanent Markup Shocks in Canada – revised version: Markups and Oil Prices in Canada (12 October 2012)," Carleton Economic Papers 11-06, Carleton University, Department of Economics, revised 12 Oct 2012.
    3. Kim, Bae-Geun, 2017. "Does the New Keynesian Phillips curve need countercyclical markups?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 262-282.
    4. Hülya Saygılı, 2020. "Sectoral inflationary dynamics: cross-country evidence on the open-economy New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 156(1), pages 75-101, February.
    5. Christian Jensen, 2017. "Aggregate Evidence on Price Rigidities and the Inflation-Output Trade-Off: A Factor Analysis of Factor Shares," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 18(2), pages 227-252, November.
    6. Mustafa Utku Özmen, 2020. "In Pursuit Of Understanding Markups In Restaurant Services Prices," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 65(06), pages 1423-1437, December.
    7. repec:cuf:journl:y:2017:v:18:i:1:jensen is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Zhao Han & Xiaohan Ma & Ruoyun Mao, 2023. "The Role of Dispersed Information in Inflation and Inflation Expectations," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 72-106, April.
    9. Argia M. Sbordone & Timothy Cogley, 2004. "A Search for a Structural Phillips Curve," Computing in Economics and Finance 2004 291, Society for Computational Economics.
    10. Malikane, Christopher, 2014. "A new Keynesian triangle Phillips curve," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 247-255.
    11. Mikael Carlsson & Oskar Nordstrom Skans, 2012. "Evaluating Microfoundations for Aggregate Price Rigidities: Evidence from Matched Firm-Level Data on Product Prices and Unit Labor Cost," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(4), pages 1571-1595, June.
    12. Florin O. Bilbiie & Fabio Ghironi & Marc J. Melitz, 2008. "Monetary Policy and Business Cycles with Endogenous Entry and Product Variety," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2007, Volume 22, pages 299-353, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Charles L. Evans, 2005. "Nominal Rigidities and the Dynamic Effects of a Shock to Monetary Policy," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 113(1), pages 1-45, February.
    14. Kim, Bae-Geun, 2010. "Identifying a permanent markup shock and its implications for macroeconomic dynamics," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(8), pages 1471-1491, August.
    15. Savagar, Anthony, 2021. "Measured productivity with endogenous markups and economic profits," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    16. PETER McADAM & ALPO WILLMAN, 2013. "Technology, Utilization, and Inflation: What Drives the New Keynesian Phillips Curve?," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(8), pages 1547-1579, December.
    17. Ravi Balakrishnan & J David Lopez-Salido, 2002. "Understanding UK inflation: the role of openness," Bank of England working papers 164, Bank of England.
    18. Sandeep Mazumder, 2012. "European Inflation and the New Keynesian Phillips Curve," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 79(2), pages 322-349, October.
    19. Basu, S. & House, C.L., 2016. "Allocative and Remitted Wages," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & Harald Uhlig (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 297-354, Elsevier.
    20. Jordi Galí & Mark Gertler & J. David López-Salido, 2007. "Markups, Gaps, and the Welfare Costs of Business Fluctuations," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 89(1), pages 44-59, November.
    21. Bratsiotis, George J. & Robinson, Wayne A., 2016. "Unit Total Costs: An Alternative Marginal Cost Proxy for Inflation Dynamics," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, vol. 20(7), pages 1826-1849.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Permanent markup shocks; Oil prices; Market structure; Declining labor income share;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E31 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Price Level; Inflation; Deflation
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:30:y:2013:i:c:p:799-813. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.