IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v28y2011i1p741-753.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Long-term macroeconometric models

Author

Listed:
  • Welfe, Wladyslaw

Abstract

Long-term forecasts and scenario analysis should be based on macroeconometric models. The core of long-term models is extended by introducing production functions generating potential output. Their specification includes total factor productivity (TFP) being representative of technological progress. It depends on knowledge capital, i.e. human capital, domestic and foreign R&D. Several channels of transfer of foreign R&D can be distinguished.

Suggested Citation

  • Welfe, Wladyslaw, 2011. "Long-term macroeconometric models," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 741-753.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:741-753
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.002
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999310000817
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2010.05.002?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bin Xu & Jianmao Wang, 1999. "Capital Goods Trade and R&D Spillovers in the OECD," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 32(5), pages 1258-1274, November.
    2. Bayoumi, Tamim & Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1999. "R&D spillovers and global growth," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(2), pages 399-428, April.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1999. "Notes on Growth Accounting," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 4(2), pages 119-137, June.
    4. Coe, David T. & Helpman, Elhanan, 1995. "International R&D spillovers," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(5), pages 859-887, May.
    5. Lichtenberg, Frank R. & Pottelsberghe de la Potterie, Bruno v., 1998. "International R&D spillovers: A comment," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 42(8), pages 1483-1491, September.
    6. Dale W. Jorgenson & Mun S. Ho & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2006. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the US Growth Resurgence," Chapters, in: Dennis W. Jansen (ed.), The New Economy and Beyond, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Cornwall, John & Cornwall, Wendy, 2002. "A demand and supply analysis of productivity growth," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 203-229, June.
    8. Wladyslaw Welfe, 2007. "Knowledge capital and total factor productivity," Working Papers 2, Department of Applied Econometrics, Warsaw School of Economics.
    9. Lee, Gwanghoon, 2005. "Direct versus indirect international R&D spillovers," Information Economics and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 334-348, July.
    10. Dale W. Jorgenson, 2001. "Information Technology and the U.S. Economy," Higher School of Economics Economic Journal Экономический журнал Высшей школы экономики, CyberLeninka;Федеральное государственное автономное образовательное учреждение высшего образования «Национальный исследовательский университет «Высшая школа экономики», vol. 5(1), pages 3-34.
    11. Dale W Jorgenson & Mun S Ho & Kevin J Stiroh, 2003. "Lessons for Europe from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," CESifo Economic Studies, CESifo Group, vol. 49(1), pages 27-47.
    12. Pietro Peretto & Sjak Smulders, 2002. "Technological Distance, Growth And Scale Effects," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 603-624, July.
    13. Engelbrecht, Hans-Jurgen, 1997. "International R&D spillovers, human capital and productivity in OECD economies: An empirical investigation," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 41(8), pages 1479-1488, August.
    14. Władysław Welfe, 2008. "A Knowledge-Based Economy: New Directions of Macromodelling," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 167-180, May.
    15. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:167-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Michele Cincera & Bruno Van Pottelsberghe, 2001. "International R&D spillovers: a survey," Brussels Economic Review, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles, vol. 169(169), pages 3-31.
    17. Smith, Keith, 2002. "What is the 'Knowledge Economy'? Knowledge Intensity and Distributed Knowledge Bases," UNU-INTECH Discussion Paper Series 2002-06, United Nations University - INTECH.
    18. Alessandra Colecchia & Paul Schreyer, 2002. "ICT Investment and Economic Growth in the 1990s: Is the United States a Unique Case? A Comparative Study of Nine OECD Countries," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 5(2), pages 408-442, April.
    19. Richards, Gordon R., 2000. "Endogenous technological advance in an econometric model: implications for productivity and potential output in the United States," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 13-34, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Qadri, Faisal Sultan & Waheed, Abdul, 2014. "Human capital and economic growth: A macroeconomic model for Pakistan," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 66-76.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Welfe, Wladyslaw, 2011. "Long-term macroeconometric models: The case of Poland," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1-2), pages 741-753, January.
    2. repec:kap:iaecre:v:14:y:2008:i:2:p:167-180 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Władysław Welfe, 2008. "A Knowledge-Based Economy: New Directions of Macromodelling," International Advances in Economic Research, Springer;International Atlantic Economic Society, vol. 14(2), pages 167-180, May.
    4. Antonio Cubel & Vicente Esteve & Maria Teresa Sanchis & Juan A. Sanchis-Llopis, 2014. "The effect of foreign and domestic patents on total factor productivity during the second half of the 20th century," Working Papers 06/14, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    5. Jianping Liu & Kai Lu & Shixiong Cheng, 2018. "International R&D Spillovers and Innovation Efficiency," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(11), pages 1-23, October.
    6. Valerio Crispolti & Daniela Marconi, 2005. "Technology transfer and economic growth in developing countries: an econometric analysis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 564, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    7. Sang-Yong Tom Lee & Xiao Jia Guo, 2004. "Information and Communications Technology (ICT) and Spillover: A Panel Analysis," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 722, Econometric Society.
    8. Madsen, Jakob B., 2007. "Technology spillover through trade and TFP convergence: 135 years of evidence for the OECD countries," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 72(2), pages 464-480, July.
    9. Krammer, Sorin M.S., 2014. "Assessing the relative importance of multiple channels for embodied and disembodied technological spillovers," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 272-286.
    10. Andrea Fracasso & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2013. "An empirical note on international R&D spillovers," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 45(1), pages 179-191, August.
    11. Jan Bonenkamp & Martijn van de Ven, 2006. "A small stochastic model of a pension fund with endogenous saving," CPB Memorandum 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    12. Bas Straathof & Gert Jan Linders & Arjan Lejour & Jan Möhlmann, 2008. "The internal market and the Dutch economy: implications for trade and economic growth," CPB Document 168.rdf, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.
    13. Andrea Fracasso & Giuseppe Vittucci Marzetti, 2014. "International R&D Spillovers, Absorptive Capacity and Relative Backwardness: A Panel Smooth Transition Regression Model," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(1), pages 137-160, March.
    14. Henry, Michael & Kneller, Richard & Milner, Chris, 2009. "Trade, technology transfer and national efficiency in developing countries," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(2), pages 237-254, February.
    15. Hall, Bronwyn H. & Mairesse, Jacques & Mohnen, Pierre, 2010. "Measuring the Returns to R&D," Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, in: Bronwyn H. Hall & Nathan Rosenberg (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Innovation, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 1033-1082, Elsevier.
    16. Jakob Madsen, 2008. "Semi-endogenous versus Schumpeterian growth models: testing the knowledge production function using international data," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 13(1), pages 1-26, March.
    17. Xu, Bin, 2000. "Multinational enterprises, technology diffusion, and host country productivity growth," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 62(2), pages 477-493, August.
    18. Mendi, Pedro, 2007. "Trade in disembodied technology and total factor productivity in OECD countries," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(1), pages 121-133, February.
    19. Bulent Unel, 2008. "R&D spillovers through trade in a panel of OECD industries," The Journal of International Trade & Economic Development, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(1), pages 105-133.
    20. James B. Ang & Jakob B. Madsen, 2013. "International R&D Spillovers And Productivity Trends In The Asian Miracle Economies," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 51(2), pages 1523-1541, April.
    21. Jakob B. Madsen & Minoo Farhadi, 2018. "International Technology Spillovers and Growth over the Past 142 Years: The Role of Genetic Proximity," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(338), pages 329-359, April.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:28:y:2011:i:1:p:741-753. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.