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Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence

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  • Jorgenson, Dale W.
  • Ho, Mun S.
  • Stiroh, Kevin J.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the sources of U.S. labor productivity growth in the post-1995 period and presents projections for both output and labor productivity growth for the next decade. Despite the recent downward revisions to U.S. GDP and software investment, we show that information technology (IT) played a substantial role in the U.S. productivity revival. We then outline a methodology for projecting trend output and productivity growth. Our base-case projection puts the rate of trend productivity growth at 2.21% per year over the next decade with a range of 1.33 - 2.92%, reflecting fundamental uncertainties about the rate of technological progress in IT-production and investment patterns. Our central projection is only slightly below the average growth rate of 2.36% during the 1995-2000 period.

Suggested Citation

  • Jorgenson, Dale W. & Ho, Mun S. & Stiroh, Kevin J., 2002. "Projecting Productivity Growth: Lessons from the U.S. Growth Resurgence," Discussion Papers 10613, Resources for the Future.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:rffdps:10613
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.10613
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Martin N. Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic implications of the new economy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 201-268.
    2. Dale W. Jorgenson & Kevin J. Stiroh, 2000. "Raising the Speed Limit: U.S. Economic Growth in the Information Age," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 31(1), pages 125-236.
    3. Martin Neil Baily, 2001. "Macroeconomic Implications of the New Economy," Working Paper Series WP01-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    4. Stephen D. Oliner & Daniel E. Sichel, 2000. "The Resurgence of Growth in the Late 1990s: Is Information Technology the Story?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 3-22, Fall.
    5. Bruce E. Hansen, 2001. "The New Econometrics of Structural Change: Dating Breaks in U.S. Labour Productivity," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 117-128, Fall.
    6. Bart Hobijn, 2001. "Is equipment price deflation a statistical artifact?," Staff Reports 139, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    7. Robert J. Gordon, 2000. "Does the "New Economy" Measure Up to the Great Inventions of the Past?," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(4), pages 49-74, Fall.
    8. Ana M. Aizcorbe, 2002. "Why are semiconductor prices falling so fast? Industry estimates and implications for productivity measurement," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2002-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Mark W. French, 2001. "Estimating changes in trend growth of total factor productivity: Kalman and H-P filters versus a Markov-switching framework," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2001-44, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    10. Roberts John M., 2001. "Estimates of the Productivity Trend Using Time-Varying Parameter Techniques," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 1(1), pages 1-32, July.
    11. Jonathan McCarthy, 2001. "Equipment expenditures since 1995: the boom and the bust," Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 7(Oct).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Productivity Analysis;

    JEL classification:

    • O4 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity

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