IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecmode/v126y2023ics0264999323001992.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The power of forward guidance: The role of social transfer

Author

Listed:
  • Woo, Jinhee

Abstract

We examine the relationship between the generosity of social transfer and the stimulative effect of forward guidance. Increasing social transfer makes households less concerned about income risk, making them more responsive to future changes in interest rates. To assess this possibility quantitatively, we construct a New Keynesian incomplete market model economy that includes social transfer. The results show that the stimulative effect of forward guidance is stronger in the model economy with twice the level of social transfer than in the model economy with the current level of United States’ social transfer.

Suggested Citation

  • Woo, Jinhee, 2023. "The power of forward guidance: The role of social transfer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323001992
    DOI: 10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106387
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0264999323001992
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.econmod.2023.106387?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s (Summary)," Mathematica Policy Research Reports d4184be34db1456f98e3099b2, Mathematica Policy Research.
    2. Per Krusell & Toshihiko Mukoyama & Richard Rogerson & Ayşegül Şahin, 2017. "Gross Worker Flows over the Business Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3447-3476, November.
    3. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Optimal Automatic Stabilizers [Consumption versus Expenditure]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2375-2406.
    4. Andreas Fagereng & Martin B. Holm & Gisle J. Natvik, 2021. "MPC Heterogeneity and Household Balance Sheets," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(4), pages 1-54, October.
    5. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
    6. Iván Werning, 2015. "Incomplete Markets and Aggregate Demand," NBER Working Papers 21448, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Martin Floden & Jesper Lindé, 2001. "Idiosyncratic Risk in the United States and Sweden: Is There a Role for Government Insurance?," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 4(2), pages 406-437, July.
    8. Raj Chetty, 2012. "Bounds on Elasticities With Optimization Frictions: A Synthesis of Micro and Macro Evidence on Labor Supply," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(3), pages 969-1018, May.
    9. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    10. James Mabli & Thomas Godfrey & Laura Castner & Stephen Tordella & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Determinants of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program: Entry and Exit in the Mid-2000s," Mathematica Policy Research Reports b6244526c98341d6bba91f07e, Mathematica Policy Research.
    11. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2022. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 106-122, March.
    12. Jonathan A. Parker & Nicholas S. Souleles & David S. Johnson & Robert McClelland, 2013. "Consumer Spending and the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(6), pages 2530-2553, October.
    13. Karen Kopecky & Richard Suen, 2010. "Finite State Markov-chain Approximations to Highly Persistent Processes," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 13(3), pages 701-714, July.
    14. Oh, Hyunseung & Reis, Ricardo, 2012. "Targeted transfers and the fiscal response to the great recession," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(S), pages 50-64.
    15. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    16. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2016. "The Role of Automatic Stabilizers in the U.S. Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 84, pages 141-194, January.
    17. Gauti B. Eggertsson & Michael Woodford, 2003. "The Zero Bound on Interest Rates and Optimal Monetary Policy," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 34(1), pages 139-235.
    18. James Mabli & Stephen Tordella & Laura Castner & Thomas Godfrey & Priscilla Foran, 2011. "Dynamics of Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program Participation in the Mid-2000s (Summary)," Mathematica Policy Research Reports c17a4ee770424afe9969801af, Mathematica Policy Research.
    19. repec:mpr:mprres:7117 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. repec:mpr:mprres:7118 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. repec:mpr:mprres:7136 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. repec:mpr:mprres:7137 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Ben S. Bernanke, 2020. "The New Tools of Monetary Policy," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(4), pages 943-983, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Alisdair McKay & Emi Nakamura & Jón Steinsson, 2016. "The Power of Forward Guidance Revisited," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(10), pages 3133-3158, October.
    2. Hannah Magdalena Seidl & Fabian Seyrich, 2021. "Unconventional Fiscal Policy in HANK," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1953, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    3. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    4. Bilbiie, Florin O., 2020. "The New Keynesian cross," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(C), pages 90-108.
    5. Alisdair McKay & Ricardo Reis, 2021. "Optimal Automatic Stabilizers [Consumption versus Expenditure]," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 88(5), pages 2375-2406.
    6. Jordi Galí, 2018. "The State of New Keynesian Economics: A Partial Assessment," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 87-112, Summer.
    7. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "Monetary-Fiscal Forward Guidance," MPRA Paper 120563, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Oliver Pfäuti & Fabian Seyrich, 2022. "A Behavioral Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian Model," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1995, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    9. Sushant Acharya & Keshav Dogra, 2020. "Understanding HANK: Insights From a PRANK," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(3), pages 1113-1158, May.
    10. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Joël Marbet & Galo Nuño & Omar Rachedi, 2023. "Inequality and the Zero Lower Bound," NBER Working Papers 31282, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin S. Eichenbaum & Mathias Trabandt, 2018. "On DSGE Models," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 32(3), pages 113-140, Summer.
    12. Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2021. "Lumpy Durable Consumption Demand and the Limited Ammunition of Monetary Policy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 89(6), pages 2717-2749, November.
    13. Antonio Antunes & Valerio Ercolani, 2020. "Public debt expansions and the dynamics of the household borrowing constraint," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 37, pages 1-32, July.
    14. Christina Patterson, 2019. "The Matching Multiplier and the Amplification of Recessions," 2019 Meeting Papers 95, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    15. George-Marios Angeletos & Chen Lian, 2018. "Forward Guidance without Common Knowledge," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(9), pages 2477-2512, September.
    16. Wei Dong & Geoffrey Dunbar & Christian Friedrich & Dmitry Matveev & Romanos Priftis & Lin Shao, 2021. "Complementarities Between Fiscal Policy and Monetary Policy—Literature Review," Discussion Papers 2021-4, Bank of Canada.
    17. Uroš Herman & Matija Lozej, 2023. "Who Gets Jobs Matters: Monetary Policy and the Labour Market in HANK and SAM," AMSE Working Papers 2334, Aix-Marseille School of Economics, France.
    18. Ralph Luetticke, 2021. "Transmission of Monetary Policy with Heterogeneity in Household Portfolios," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 1-25, April.
    19. Kase, Hanno & Melosi, Leonardo & Rottner, Matthias, 2024. "Estimating Nonlinear Heterogeneous Agent Models with Neural Networks," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1499, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    20. Kopiec, Paweł, 2024. "The aggregate and distributional effects of fiscal stimuli," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Forward guidance; Social transfer; Incomplete markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecmode:v:126:y:2023:i:c:s0264999323001992. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/30411 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.