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Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand

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  • Alisdair McKay
  • Johannes F. Wieland

Abstract

We study the monetary transmission mechanism in a quantitative fixed-cost model of durable goods demand. We show that aggregate demand is substantially more sensitive to contemporaneous interest rates than to forward guidance about future interest rates. Reducing the real interest rate one year from now increases output by only 41 percent as much as reducing the real interest rate today. The power of forward guidance declines further at longer horizons. We show analytically and quantitatively that this result is driven by the sensitivity of the extensive margin of durable adjustment to the contemporaneous user cost.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2022. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 106-122, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aerins:v:4:y:2022:i:1:p:106-22
    DOI: 10.1257/aeri.20200804
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    2. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
    3. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    4. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Chafwehe, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Consumption Dynamics, and the Secondary Market for Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 202-243, April.
    2. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Evren Damar & Ian Lange & Caitlin McKennie & Mirko Moro, 2024. "Banking deregulation and consumption of home durables," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1-20, March.
    4. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    5. Johannes Wieland, 2024. "Comment on "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations: Insights from TANK Models"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Woo, Jinhee, 2023. "The power of forward guidance: The role of social transfer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. van den End, Jan Willem & Konietschke, Paul & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2021. "Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2620, European Central Bank.
    8. St phane Dupraz, 2023. "The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings," Working papers 905, Banque de France.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets
    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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