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Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand

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  • Alisdair McKay
  • Johannes F. Wieland

Abstract

Durable goods attenuate the power of forward guidance. The extensive and intensive margins of durable goods demand are both more sensitive to the contemporaneous user cost than to future user costs. Changes in the contemporaneous real interest rate directly affect the contemporaneous user cost and durable demand, whereas promises of low future real interest rates have weaker effects through equilibrium price changes. Quantitatively, reducing the real interest rate one year from now increases output by only forty percent as much as reducing the real interest rate today. Our results are little affected by the maturity of financial assets that finance durable purchases.

Suggested Citation

  • Alisdair McKay & Johannes F. Wieland, 2020. "Forward Guidance and Durable Goods Demand," NBER Working Papers 28066, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:28066
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hatchondo, Juan Carlos & Martinez, Leonardo, 2009. "Long-duration bonds and sovereign defaults," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(1), pages 117-125, September.
    2. Adrien Auclert, 2019. "Monetary Policy and the Redistribution Channel," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(6), pages 2333-2367, June.
    3. Matthias Doepke & Martin Schneider, 2006. "Inflation and the Redistribution of Nominal Wealth," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 114(6), pages 1069-1097, December.
    4. Emmanuel Farhi & Iván Werning, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Bounded Rationality, and Incomplete Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(11), pages 3887-3928, November.
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    Cited by:

    1. Boris Chafwehe, 2023. "Unemployment Risk, Consumption Dynamics, and the Secondary Market for Durable Goods," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 48, pages 202-243, April.
    2. Ding Dong & Zheng Liu & Pengfei Wang & Min Wei, 2024. "Inflation Disagreement Weakens the Power of Monetary Policy," Working Paper Series 2024-27, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. van den End, Jan Willem & Konietschke, Paul & Samarina, Anna & Stanga, Irina M., 2021. "Macroeconomic reversal rate in a low interest rate environment," Working Paper Series 2620, European Central Bank.
    4. Stéphane Dupraz, 2023. "The Dynamic IS Curve when there is both Investment and Savings," Working papers 905, Banque de France.
    5. Lepetit, Antoine & Fuentes-Albero, Cristina, 2022. "The limited power of monetary policy in a pandemic," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 147(C).
    6. Evren Damar & Ian Lange & Caitlin McKennie & Mirko Moro, 2024. "Banking deregulation and consumption of home durables," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 177(3), pages 1-20, March.
    7. Woo, Jinhee, 2023. "The power of forward guidance: The role of social transfer," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    8. Johannes Wieland, 2024. "Comment on "Heterogeneity and Aggregate Fluctuations: Insights from TANK Models"," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2024, volume 39, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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