Nations ranking in scientific competition: Countries get what they paid for

How to explain the success of China or South Korea in the global scientific (academic research) competition over the past two decades? So far, the literature answers by assuming new comparative advantages (in terms of learning or training) for East Asian countries and/or deficient research organization in Western economies. We develop an original micro-macro model based on the aggregation of individual knowledge production functions. Our model predicts the existence of a stable macro power law, relating the world share of countries' scientific production (publications and citations) to their world share of public investment in scientific research. We test and support this prediction, using bibliometric cross-country longitudinal data for OECD and non-OECD countries, over the 1996–2015 period. This analysis shows that East Asian countries’ impressive catch-up is due, to the first order, to sustained investment efforts in scientific research – efforts that are greater than those undertaken in traditional scientific countries.