IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/ecanpo/v80y2023icp1677-1695.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Local government fiscal stress and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China

Author

Listed:
  • Peng, Fei
  • Zhou, Shibiao
  • Zhou, Peng

Abstract

This study investigates the effects of local government fiscal stress on corporate risk-taking and its potential mechanisms by employing a difference-in-differences (DID) approach in the context of a unique pilot program in China to replace the business tax (BT) with the value-added tax (VAT). Using a sample of Chinese listed firms from 2009 to 2015, this study finds that (1) local government fiscal stress has a causal and negative effect on corporate risk-taking; (2) this effect is more pronounced for firms in regions with higher tax intensity, privately owned firms, firms with lower sales growth, and service industry firms; and (3) to mitigate fiscal stress, local governments issue more government debt, strengthen tax enforcement and sell more land, which increases external financing constraints, decreases internal cash flow and intensifies corporate financialization, respectively, leading to a decline in corporate risk-taking. The above findings offer a rationale as to why higher local government fiscal stress might be associated with lower levels of corporate risk-taking.

Suggested Citation

  • Peng, Fei & Zhou, Shibiao & Zhou, Peng, 2023. "Local government fiscal stress and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in China," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1677-1695.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:1677-1695
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eap.2023.11.009
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0313592623002904
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.eap.2023.11.009?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Philippe Aghion & John Van Reenen & Luigi Zingales, 2013. "Innovation and Institutional Ownership," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 103(1), pages 277-304, February.
    2. Stewart C. Myers & Nicholas S. Majluf, 1984. "Corporate Financing and Investment Decisions When Firms Have InformationThat Investors Do Not Have," NBER Working Papers 1396, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Myers, Stewart C. & Majluf, Nicholas S., 1984. "Corporate financing and investment decisions when firms have information that investors do not have," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 187-221, June.
    4. Almeida, Heitor & Campello, Murillo & Weisbach, Michael S., 2011. "Corporate financial and investment policies when future financing is not frictionless," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(3), pages 675-693, June.
    5. Do, Truc & Zhang, Huai & Zuo, Luo, 2022. "Rocking the boat: How relative performance evaluation affects corporate risk taking," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 73(1).
    6. Bronwyn Hall, 2004. "The financing of research and development," Chapters, in: Anthony Bartzokas & Sunil Mani (ed.), Financial Systems, Corporate Investment in Innovation, and Venture Capital, chapter 2, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    7. Nathan Nunn & Nancy Qian, 2011. "The Potato's Contribution to Population and Urbanization: Evidence From A Historical Experiment," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 126(2), pages 593-650.
    8. Demir, FIrat, 2009. "Financial liberalization, private investment and portfolio choice: Financialization of real sectors in emerging markets," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(2), pages 314-324, March.
    9. Acharya, Viral V. & Amihud, Yakov & Litov, Lubomir, 2011. "Creditor rights and corporate risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 150-166, October.
    10. Koirala, Santosh & Marshall, Andrew & Neupane, Suman & Thapa, Chandra, 2020. "Corporate governance reform and risk-taking: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment in an emerging market," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).
    11. Fei Peng & Langchuan Peng & Jie Mao & Peng Lu, 2021. "The Short-Run Effect of a Local Fiscal Squeeze on Pollution Abatement Expenditures: Evidence from China’s VAT Pilot Program," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 78(3), pages 453-485, March.
    12. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out or Crowding In? Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 9(3), pages 593-641.
    13. M. Chatib Basri & Mayara Felix & Rema Hanna & Benjamin A. Olken, 2021. "Tax Administration versus Tax Rates: Evidence from Corporate Taxation in Indonesia," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 111(12), pages 3827-3871, December.
    14. Chen, Minjia & Guariglia, Alessandra, 2013. "Internal financial constraints and firm productivity in China: Do liquidity and export behavior make a difference?," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 41(4), pages 1123-1140.
    15. Bardaka, Ioanna & Bournakis, Ioannis & Kaplanoglou, Georgia, 2021. "Total factor productivity (TFP) and fiscal consolidation: How harmful is austerity?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 908-922.
    16. Jensen, Michael C. & Meckling, William H., 1976. "Theory of the firm: Managerial behavior, agency costs and ownership structure," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 305-360, October.
    17. Heitor Almeida & Murillo Campello, 2007. "Financial Constraints, Asset Tangibility, and Corporate Investment," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(5), pages 1429-1460, 2007 12.
    18. Hwan Joo Seo & Han Sung Kim & Yoo Chan Kim, 2012. "Financialization and the Slowdown in Korean Firms' R&D Investment," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(3), pages 35-49, Fall.
    19. Fang, Hongsheng & Bao, Yuxin & Zhang, Jun, 2017. "Asymmetric reform bonus: The impact of VAT pilot expansion on China's corporate total tax burden," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(S), pages 17-34.
    20. Chengrui Xiao, 2020. "Intergovernmental revenue relations, tax enforcement and tax shifting: evidence from China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(1), pages 128-152, February.
    21. Benjamin M. Friedman, 1978. "Crowding Out Or Crowding In? The Economic Consequences of Financing Government Deficits," NBER Working Papers 0284, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    22. Mara Faccio & Maria-Teresa Marchica & Roberto Mura, 2011. "Large Shareholder Diversification and Corporate Risk-Taking," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(11), pages 3601-3641.
    23. Steven M. Fazzari & R. Glenn Hubbard & Bruce C. Petersen, 1988. "Financing Constraints and Corporate Investment," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 19(1), pages 141-206.
    24. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    25. Li, Lixing & Liu, Kevin Zhengcheng & Nie, Zhuo & Xi, Tianyang, 2021. "Evading by any means? VAT enforcement and payroll tax evasion in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 770-784.
    26. Demirci, Irem & Huang, Jennifer & Sialm, Clemens, 2019. "Government debt and corporate leverage: International evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(2), pages 337-356.
    27. Yongzheng Liu & Jie Mao, 2019. "How Do Tax Incentives Affect Investment and Productivity? Firm-Level Evidence from China," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 261-291, August.
    28. Kose John & Lubomir Litov & Bernard Yeung, 2008. "Corporate Governance and Risk‐Taking," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1679-1728, August.
    29. Charles J. Hadlock & Joshua R. Pierce, 2010. "New Evidence on Measuring Financial Constraints: Moving Beyond the KZ Index," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(5), pages 1909-1940.
    30. Lan, Fei & Wang, Wei & Cao, Qingzi, 2020. "Tax cuts and enterprises’ R&D intensity: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 89(C), pages 304-314.
    31. Fan, Joseph P. H. & Titman, Sheridan & Twite, Garry, 2012. "An International Comparison of Capital Structure and Debt Maturity Choices," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 47(1), pages 23-56, February.
    32. Davis, Morris A. & Heathcote, Jonathan, 2007. "The price and quantity of residential land in the United States," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(8), pages 2595-2620, November.
    33. Wu, Guiying Laura & Feng, Qu & Li, Pei, 2015. "Does local governments’ budget deficit push up housing prices in China?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 183-196.
    34. Yunji Kim & Mildred E. Warner, 2021. "Pragmatic municipalism or austerity urbanism? Understanding local government responses to fiscal stress," Local Government Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(2), pages 234-252, March.
    35. Han, Li & Kung, James Kai-Sing, 2015. "Fiscal incentives and policy choices of local governments: Evidence from China," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(C), pages 89-104.
    36. Jianjun Li & Xuan Wang, 2020. "Does VAT have higher tax compliance than a turnover tax? Evidence from China," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 27(2), pages 280-311, April.
    37. Fan, Ziying & Liu, Yu, 2020. "Tax Compliance and Investment Incentives: Firm Responses to Accelerated Depreciation in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 1-17.
    38. Lü, Xiaobo & Landry, Pierre F., 2014. "Show Me the Money: Interjurisdiction Political Competition and Fiscal Extraction in China," American Political Science Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 108(3), pages 706-722, August.
    39. Alexander Ljungqvist & Liandong Zhang & Luo Zuo, 2017. "Sharing Risk with the Government: How Taxes Affect Corporate Risk Taking," Journal of Accounting Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 55(3), pages 669-707, June.
    40. Ardagna, Silvia, 2004. "Fiscal Stabilizations: When Do They Work and Why," Scholarly Articles 2580047, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    41. Li, Hongbin & Meng, Lingsheng & Wang, Qian & Zhou, Li-An, 2008. "Political connections, financing and firm performance: Evidence from Chinese private firms," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(2), pages 283-299, October.
    42. Liu, Guanchun & Liu, Yuanyuan & Zhang, Chengsi & Zhu, Yueteng, 2021. "Social insurance law and corporate financing decisions in China," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 190(C), pages 816-837.
    43. René M. Stulz, 2007. "The Limits of Financial Globalization," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 19(1), pages 8-15, January.
    44. Ferris, Stephen P. & Javakhadze, David & Rajkovic, Tijana, 2017. "CEO social capital, risk-taking and corporate policies," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 46-71.
    45. Coles, Jeffrey L. & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naveen, Lalitha, 2006. "Managerial incentives and risk-taking," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(2), pages 431-468, February.
    46. Daniele Tori & Özlem Onaran, 2018. "The effects of financialization on investment: evidence from firm-level data for the UK," Cambridge Journal of Economics, Cambridge Political Economy Society, vol. 42(5), pages 1393-1416.
    47. Sara Amoroso & Pietro Moncada-Paternò-Castello & Antonio Vezzani, 2017. "R&D profitability: the role of risk and Knightian uncertainty," Small Business Economics, Springer, vol. 48(2), pages 331-343, February.
    48. Fang, Yiwei & Hasan, Iftekhar & Lin, Chih-Yung & Sun, Jiong, 2022. "The impact of overconfident customers on supplier firm risks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 115-133.
    49. Chen, Shawn Xiaoguang, 2017. "The effect of a fiscal squeeze on tax enforcement: Evidence from a natural experiment in China," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 147(C), pages 62-76.
    50. Cai, Guowei & Zhang, Xuejiao & Yang, Hao, 2022. "Fiscal stress and the formation of zombie firms: Evidence from China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).
    51. Song, Ciji & Nahm, Abraham Y. & Song, Zengji, 2021. "Entrepreneurs' hobbies and corporate risk taking: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 77(C).
    52. Pan, Jiun-Nan & Huang, Jr-Tsung & Chiang, Tsun-Feng, 2015. "Empirical study of the local government deficit, land finance and real estate markets in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 57-67.
    53. John Graham & Mark T. Leary & Michael R. Roberts, 2014. "How Does Government Borrowing Affect Corporate Financing and Investment?," NBER Working Papers 20581, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    54. Peng, Fei & Peng, Langchuan & Wang, Zheng, 2021. "How do VAT reforms in the service sectors impact TFP in the manufacturing sector: Firm-level evidence from China," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 99(C).
    55. Adeleke Salami, 2011. "Taxation, Revenue Allocation and Fiscal Federalism in Nigeria: Issues, Challenges and Policy Options," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 56(189), pages 27-50, April – J.
    56. Bargeron, Leonce L. & Lehn, Kenneth M. & Zutter, Chad J., 2010. "Sarbanes-Oxley and corporate risk-taking," Journal of Accounting and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(1-2), pages 34-52, February.
    57. Gaganis, Chrysovalantis & Hasan, Iftekhar & Papadimitri, Panagiota & Tasiou, Menelaos, 2019. "National culture and risk-taking: Evidence from the insurance industry," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 104-116.
    58. Meng, Qingbin & Li, Xinyu & Chan, Kam C. & Gao, Shenghao, 2020. "Does short selling affect a firm's financial constraints?," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    59. Gennaro Bernile & Vineet Bhagwat & P. Raghavendra Rau, 2017. "What Doesn't Kill You Will Only Make You More Risk-Loving: Early-Life Disasters and CEO Behavior," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 72(1), pages 167-206, February.
    60. Zhiyao Chen & Ilya A Strebulaev, 2019. "Macroeconomic Risk and Idiosyncratic Risk-taking," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(3), pages 1148-1187.
    61. Bilicka, Katarzyna, 2020. "Are financing constraints binding for investment? Evidence from a natural experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 177(C), pages 618-640.
    62. Steven N. Kaplan & Luigi Zingales, 1997. "Do Investment-Cash Flow Sensitivities Provide Useful Measures of Financing Constraints?," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(1), pages 169-215.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Ma, Anmiao, 2024. "The role of management characteristics in trade frictions and corporate financialization," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fu, Fanjie & Fang, Jing & Zhang, Fan & Yao, Shujie & Ou, Jinghua, 2024. "CEOs' hometown connections and corporate risk-taking: Evidence from China," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    2. Fei Peng & Shibiao Zhou & Tao Ding & Huaqing Wu, 2023. "Impact of fiscal expenditure stress on green transformation risk: evidence from China education authority reform," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 56(6), pages 4565-4601, December.
    3. Jiang, Tianjiao & Levine, Ross & Lin, Chen & Wei, Lai, 2020. "Bank deregulation and corporate risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    4. Imhof, Michael J. & Seavey, Scott E., 2014. "Corporate risk-taking, firm value and high levels of managerial earnings forecasts," Advances in accounting, Elsevier, vol. 30(2), pages 328-337.
    5. Wang, Jingwen & Shen, Guangjun & Tang, Dunzhe, 2021. "Does tax deduction relax financing constraints? Evidence from China's value-added tax reform," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    6. Caixe, Daniel Ferreira, 2022. "Corporate governance and investment sensitivity to policy uncertainty in Brazil," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 51(PB).
    7. Morais, Flávio & Serrasqueiro, Zélia & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2020. "The zero-leverage phenomenon: A bivariate probit with partial observability approach," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 53(C).
    8. Zhang, Dongyang & Liu, Deqiang, 2017. "Determinants of the capital structure of Chinese non-listed enterprises: Is TFP efficient?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 41(2), pages 179-202.
    9. Jiang, Jiaoliang & Chen, Yulin, 2021. "How does labor protection influence corporate risk-taking? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 68(C).
    10. Çolak, Gönül & Korkeamäki, Timo, 2021. "CEO mobility and corporate policy risk," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    11. Meng, Qingbin & Li, Haitong & Chan, Kam C., 2023. "Fleeing entrepreneurs: Foreign residency right and corporate risk-taking," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    12. Söhnke M. Bartram, 2017. "Corporate Postretirement Benefit Plans and Real Investment," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 63(2), pages 355-383, February.
    13. Ömer Tuğsal Doruk, 2024. "The Link Between R&D and Financing Constraints in Manufacturing Sectors for Two Emerging Markets," Journal of the Knowledge Economy, Springer;Portland International Center for Management of Engineering and Technology (PICMET), vol. 15(3), pages 12596-12621, September.
    14. Niu, Yuhao & Wang, Sai & Wen, Wen & Li, Sifei, 2023. "Does digital transformation speed up dynamic capital structure adjustment? Evidence from China," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    15. Kong, Dongmin & Xiong, Mengxu & Qin, Ni, 2022. "Business Tax reform and CSR engagement: Evidence from China," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    16. Cui, Di & Ding, Mingfa & Han, Yikai & Suardi, Sandy, 2022. "Foreign shareholders, relative foreign policy uncertainty and corporate cash holdings," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 84(C).
    17. Tong, Hui & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2021. "Endogenous corporate leverage response to a safer macro environment: The case of foreign exchange reserve accumulation," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    18. Michael Espindola Araki & Henrique Castro Martins, 2022. "Integrating uncertainty and governance into a capital structure puzzle: can risk-taking and rule-taking explain zero-leverage firms?," Review of Managerial Science, Springer, vol. 16(6), pages 1979-2034, August.
    19. Choonsik Lee & Heungju Park, 2016. "Financial constraints, board governance standards, and corporate cash holdings," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 28(1), pages 21-34, January.
    20. Chan, Chia-Chung & Lin, Bing-Huei & Chang, Yung-Ho & Liao, Wei-Chen, 2013. "Does bank relationship matter for corporate risk-taking? Evidence from listed firms in Taiwan," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(C), pages 323-338.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    VAT pilot program; Governmental fiscal stress; Corporate risk-taking; Financial constraints; Financialization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • G32 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Financing Policy; Financial Risk and Risk Management; Capital and Ownership Structure; Value of Firms; Goodwill
    • H32 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - Firm
    • H71 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - State and Local Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:ecanpo:v:80:y:2023:i:c:p:1677-1695. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.journals.elsevier.com/economic-analysis-and-policy .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.