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Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

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  • Branger, Nicole
  • Kraft, Holger
  • Meinerding, Christoph

Abstract

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.

Suggested Citation

  • Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2014. "Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-36.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:18-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.10.005
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    3. Liu, Guo & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2021. "Household Lifetime Strategies under a Self-Contagious Market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 935-952.
    4. Hainaut, Donatien & Goutte, Stephane, 2018. "A switching microstructure model for stock prices," LIDAM Discussion Papers ISBA 2018014, Université catholique de Louvain, Institute of Statistics, Biostatistics and Actuarial Sciences (ISBA).
    5. Liu, Guo & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming & Zhang, Jiannan, 2022. "Stochastic asset allocation and reinsurance game under contagious claims," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 49(C).
    6. Bernd Scherer, 2020. "Alternative risk premia: contagion and portfolio choice," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 21(3), pages 178-191, May.
    7. Buccioli, Alice & Kokholm, Thomas & Nicolosi, Marco, 2019. "Expected shortfall and portfolio management in contagious markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-115.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset allocation; Contagion; Nonlinear filtering; Hidden state; Self-exciting processes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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