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Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution

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  • Arce, Oscar J.

Abstract

We propose a rational expectations framework for understanding speculative hyperinflations that end in response to 'orthodox' stabilization programs. Motivated by a strong degree of hysteresis in the stock of real balances after the end of hyperinflations, we provide a cash-and-credit model in which the money demand exhibits persistence because individuals can establish long-lasting credit relationships. We use the model to show that if hysteresis in real balances is possible then a fiscal-monetary reform that successfully stops a speculative hyperinflation may fail to prevent it. We argue that speculative hyperinflationary equilibria are consistent with some key stylized facts observed in extreme hyperinflations.

Suggested Citation

  • Arce, Oscar J., 2009. "Speculative hyperinflations and currency substitution," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1808-1823, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:33:y:2009:i:10:p:1808-1823
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    Cited by:

    1. Sokic Alexandre, 2012. "The Monetary Analysis of Hyperinflation and the Appropriate Specification of the Demand for Money," German Economic Review, De Gruyter, vol. 13(2), pages 142-160, May.
    2. Wojciech W. Charemza & Yuriy Kharin & Vladislav Maevskiy, 2014. "Bilinear Forecast Risk Assessment for Non-systematic Inflation: Theory and Evidence," Dynamic Modeling and Econometrics in Economics and Finance, in: Frauke Schleer-van Gellecom (ed.), Advances in Non-linear Economic Modeling, edition 127, pages 205-232, Springer.
    3. Jun-Hyun Ko & Hiroshi Morita, 2015. "How does hyperinflation shock the economy?: Panel VAR Approach," Working Papers e090, Tokyo Center for Economic Research.

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