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Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect

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  • Krupkina, Anna
  • Ponomarenko, Alexey

Abstract

We apply empirical modelling set-ups developed to capture the hysteresis effect in the data on deposit dollarization in a cross-section of emerging market economies. Specifically, we estimate a nonlinear relationship that determines two equilibrium levels of deposit dollarization depending on the current value of dollarization and previous episodes of sharp depreciation of the national currency over the past five years. When exchange rates are stable, convergence to a higher equilibrium level of dollarization begins when the 45–50% thresh-old of deposit dollarization is exceeded. We estimate the model for short-run dynamics of dollarization and find that the speed of convergence to the higher equilibrium implies quarterly increases of 1.2–3 percentage points in the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits.

Suggested Citation

  • Krupkina, Anna & Ponomarenko, Alexey, 2015. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," BOFIT Discussion Papers 32/2015, Bank of Finland Institute for Emerging Economies (BOFIT).
    • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bofitp:bdp2015_032
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    Cited by:

    1. Vsevolod Y. Cherkasov & Julia A. Maklakova, 2018. "Dollarization in Armenia: Structural Causes and Evolution of Monetary Policy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 62-75, August.
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    3. Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa & Augustine Ujunwa & Emmanuel Onah & Nnenna Georgina Nwonye & Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike, 2021. "Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 590-607, December.
    4. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    5. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Krupkina, 2016. "Deposit dollarization and national currency depreciation in Russia and Kazakhstan," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note1, Bank of Russia.

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    JEL classification:

    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models
    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

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