IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/jecfin/v41y2017i4d10.1007_s12197-016-9379-1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect

Author

Listed:
  • Anna Krupkina

    (Bank of Russia
    NRU-HSE)

  • Alexey Ponomarenko

    (Bank of Russia)

Abstract

We estimate a nonlinear relationship that determines two equilibrium levels of deposit dollarization depending on the current value of dollarization and previous episodes of sharp depreciation of the national currency over the past five years. If exchange rate is stable, convergence to a higher equilibrium level of dollarization begins when the 45–50 % threshold of deposit dollarization is exceeded. We estimate the model for short-run dynamics of dollarization and find that the speed of convergence to the higher equilibrium implies quarterly increases of 1.2 to 3 percentage points in the ratio of foreign currency deposits to total deposits.

Suggested Citation

  • Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9379-1
    DOI: 10.1007/s12197-016-9379-1
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://link.springer.com/10.1007/s12197-016-9379-1
    File Function: Abstract
    Download Restriction: Access to the full text of the articles in this series is restricted.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1007/s12197-016-9379-1?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Eduardo Levy Yeyati, 2003. "Financial Dedollarization: A Carrot and Stick Approach," Business School Working Papers nueve, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. John Duffy & Maxim Nikitin, 2004. "Dollarization Traps," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 196, Econometric Society.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E., 1999. "Threshold effects in non-dynamic panels: Estimation, testing, and inference," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 93(2), pages 345-368, December.
    4. Patrick Honohan, 2007. "Dollarization and Exchange Rate Fluctuations," The Institute for International Integration Studies Discussion Paper Series iiisdp201, IIIS.
    5. Mr. Johannes Mueller, 1994. "Dollarization in Lebanon," IMF Working Papers 1994/129, International Monetary Fund.
    6. Ize, Alain & Yeyati, Eduardo Levy, 2003. "Financial dollarization," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(2), pages 323-347, March.
    7. Bettina Peiers & Jeffrey M. Wrase, 1997. "Dollarization hysteresis and network externalities: theory and evidence from an informal Bolivian credit market," Working Papers 97-21, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    8. Edgar L Feige, 2003. "Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarisation and Euroisation in Transition Countries," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 45(3), pages 358-383, September.
    9. Miguel Lebre de Freitas, 2003. "Revisiting Dollarisation Hysteresis: Evidence from Bolivia, Turkey and Indonesia," NIPE Working Papers 12/2003, NIPE - Universidade do Minho.
    10. Basso, Henrique S. & Calvo-Gonzalez, Oscar & Jurgilas, Marius, 2011. "Financial dollarization: The role of foreign-owned banks and interest rates," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 794-806, April.
    11. Pablo E. Guidotti & Carlos A. Rodriguez, 1992. "Dollarization in Latin America: Gresham's Law in Reverse?," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 39(3), pages 518-544, September.
    12. Kamin, Steven B. & Ericsson, Neil R., 2003. "Dollarization in post-hyperinflationary Argentina," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 185-211, April.
    13. Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 224-235, March.
    14. Mr. Adam Bennett & Mr. Eduardo Borensztein & Mr. Tomás J. T. Baliño, 1999. "Monetary Policy in Dollarized Economies," IMF Occasional Papers 1999/003, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Clements, Benedict & Schwartz, Gerd, 1993. "Currency substitution: The recent experience of Bolivia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 21(11), pages 1883-1893, November.
    16. Calvo, Guillermo & Vegh, Carlos, 1992. "Currency Substitution in Developing Countries: An Introduction," MPRA Paper 20338, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    17. Samreth, Sovannroeun, 2011. "An empirical study on the hysteresis of currency substitution in Cambodia," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(6), pages 518-527.
    18. Uribe, Martin, 1997. "Hysteresis in a simple model of currency substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 185-202, September.
    19. Neanidis, Kyriakos C. & Savva, Christos S., 2009. "Financial dollarization: Short-run determinants in transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1860-1873, October.
    20. Edgar L. Feige, 2003. "The Dynamics of Currency Substitution, Asset Substitution and De facto Dollarization and Euroization in Transition Countries," Macroeconomics 0302005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Everaert, Gerdie & Pozzi, Lorenzo, 2007. "Bootstrap-based bias correction for dynamic panels," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(4), pages 1160-1184, April.
    22. Hansen Bruce E., 1997. "Inference in TAR Models," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 2(1), pages 1-16, April.
    23. Luca, Alina & Petrova, Iva, 2008. "What drives credit dollarization in transition economies?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 858-869, May.
    24. Nienke Oomes, 2003. "Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 2003/096, International Monetary Fund.
    25. M. Emranul Haque & Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2009. "Financial Dollarization: Short-Run Determinants in Transition Economies," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 114, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    26. Joannes Mongardini & Johannes Mueller, 2000. "Ratchet Effects in Currency Substitution: An Application to the Kyrgyz Republic," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 47(2), pages 1-3.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Vsevolod Y. Cherkasov & Julia A. Maklakova, 2018. "Dollarization in Armenia: Structural Causes and Evolution of Monetary Policy," Finansovyj žhurnal — Financial Journal, Financial Research Institute, Moscow 125375, Russia, issue 4, pages 62-75, August.
    3. Angela Ifeanyi Ujunwa & Augustine Ujunwa & Emmanuel Onah & Nnenna Georgina Nwonye & Onyedikachi David Chukwunwike, 2021. "Extending the determinants of currency substitution in Nigeria: Any role for financial innovation?," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 89(4), pages 590-607, December.
    4. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    5. Alexey Ponomarenko & Anna Krupkina, 2016. "Deposit dollarization and national currency depreciation in Russia and Kazakhstan," Bank of Russia Working Paper Series note1, Bank of Russia.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Anna Krupkina & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2017. "Deposit dollarization in emerging markets: modelling the hysteresis effect," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 41(4), pages 794-805, October.
    2. repec:zbw:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231446 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. repec:bof:bofitp:urn:nbn:fi:bof-201511231446 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. repec:zbw:bofitp:2015_032 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. John Duffy & Maxim Nikitin, 2004. "Dollarization Traps," Econometric Society 2004 Latin American Meetings 196, Econometric Society.
    6. Marina Tkalec, 2013. "The Dynamics of Deposit Euroization in European Post-Transition Countries: Evidence from Threshold VAR," Focus on European Economic Integration, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank), issue 1, pages 66-83.
    7. Andrii Kaminskyi & Nataliia Versal, 2018. "Risk Management of Dollarization in Banking: Case of Post-Soviet Countries," Montenegrin Journal of Economics, Economic Laboratory for Transition Research (ELIT), vol. 14(2), pages 21-40.
    8. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff & Miguel A. Savastano, 2014. "Addicted to Dollars," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(1), pages 1-51, May.
    9. Helmut Stix, 2008. "Euroization: What Factors drive its Persistence?," Working Papers 140, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    10. Ramis Khabibullin & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2022. "An empirical behavioral model of household’s deposit dollarization," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 17(3), pages 827-847, July.
    11. Valev, Neven T., 2010. "The hysteresis of currency substitution: Currency risk vs. network externalities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 224-235, March.
    12. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2006. "The Effects of Uncertainty on Currency Substitution and Inflation: Evidence from Emerging Economies," Economics Discussion Paper Series 0609, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    13. Aysen Arac & Funda Telatar & Erdinc Telatar, 2012. "Investigating the Time Varying Nature of the Link between Inflation and Currency Substitution in the Turkish Economy," Hacettepe University Department of Economics Working Papers 20122, Hacettepe University, Department of Economics.
    14. repec:cuf:journl:y:2015:v:16:i:1:reinhart:rogoff:savastano is not listed on IDEAS
    15. Thomas Scheiber & Helmut Stix, 2009. "Euroization in Central, Eastern and Southeastern Europe – New Evidence On Its Extent and Some Evidence On Its Causes," Working Papers 159, Oesterreichische Nationalbank (Austrian Central Bank).
    16. Kyriakos C. Neanidis, 2010. "Financial Dollarization and European Union Membership," International Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(2), pages 257-282, August.
    17. Capasso, Salvatore & Neanidis, Kyriakos C., 2019. "Domestic or foreign currency? Remittances and the composition of deposits and loans," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 160(C), pages 168-183.
    18. Nienke Oomes, 2003. "Network Externalities and Dollarization Hysteresis: The Case of Russia," IMF Working Papers 2003/096, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Bernardo X. Fernández Tellería, 2007. "Dollarization hysteresis, network externalities and the “past legacy” effect: the case of Bolivia," Monetaria, CEMLA, vol. 0(2), pages 167-217, marzo-abr.
    20. Kyriakos C. Neanidis & Christos S. Savva, 2018. "Regional Spillovers in Financial Dollarization," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 238, Economics, The University of Manchester.
    21. Konstantin Egorov & Alexey Ponomarenko, 2021. "Review of the Bank of Russia and NES Seminar ‘Financial Dollarisation: Causes and Consequences’," Russian Journal of Money and Finance, Bank of Russia, vol. 80(2), pages 96-104, June.
    22. Fidrmuc, Jarko & Hake, Mariya & Stix, Helmut, 2013. "Households’ foreign currency borrowing in Central and Eastern Europe," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(6), pages 1880-1897.
    23. Brown, Martin & De Haas, Ralph & Sokolov, Vladimir, 2013. "Regional Inflation and Financial Dollarization," Working Papers on Finance 1327, University of St. Gallen, School of Finance.
    24. Martin Brown & Helmut Stix, 2015. "The euroization of bank deposits in Eastern Europe," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 30(81), pages 95-139.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Dollarization; Hysteresis; Emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E41 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Demand for Money
    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:jecfin:v:41:y:2017:i:4:d:10.1007_s12197-016-9379-1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Sonal Shukla or Springer Nature Abstracting and Indexing (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.