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Life expectancy and politics of public education and pension with endogenous fertility

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  • Uchida, Yuki
  • Ono, Tetsuo

Abstract

Implications of increased life expectancy on parental fertility decisions and subsequent shifts in political influence between younger and older generations carry significant consequences for government policies concerning education and pension. This study introduces an overlapping generations growth model incorporating these effects, qualitatively indicating that increased life expectancy correlates with lower fertility rates, decreased education expenditure-GDP ratio, and increased pension benefit-GDP ratio. A model simulation evaluates the impact of the projected increase in life expectancy until 2100 on four country groups: synthetic rich OECD, synthetic rich OECD Europe, Japan, and the United States. The findings demonstrate similar trends as in the qualitative analysis, yet growth rates are projected to vary significantly across regions and countries due to differing life expectancy increases.

Suggested Citation

  • Uchida, Yuki & Ono, Tetsuo, 2024. "Life expectancy and politics of public education and pension with endogenous fertility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:168:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001878
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104995
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fertility; Public pension; Public education; Probabilistic voting; Overlapping generations;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D70 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - General
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H52 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Education
    • H55 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Social Security and Public Pensions

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