IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v166y2024ics0165188924001118.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the sources of the aggregate risk premium: Risk aversion, bubbles or regime-switching?

Author

Listed:
  • Caravello, Tomás E.
  • Driffill, John
  • Kenc, Turalay
  • Sola, Martin

Abstract

We develop and estimate a consumption-based asset pricing model that uses historical US financial data and assumes recursive utility, allowing for priced regime-switching risk and intrinsic bubbles. We also estimate several restricted versions, including only a subset of these features. Priced regime-switching risk is essential to the equity risk premium, explaining more than fifty per cent of it. Furthermore, a model that does not consider regime switching would overestimate the public's risk aversion, mistakenly assigning the observed risk premium to high-risk aversion instead of priced regime-switching. We also find that intrinsic bubbles are statistically significant, and even though they are not crucial in explaining the risk premium, they substantially improve the model's fit at the end of the sample.

Suggested Citation

  • Caravello, Tomás E. & Driffill, John & Kenc, Turalay & Sola, Martin, 2024. "On the sources of the aggregate risk premium: Risk aversion, bubbles or regime-switching?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 166(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:166:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001118
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104919
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188924001118
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2024.104919?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1043-1078, November.
    2. Kocherlakota, Narayana, 2008. "Injecting rational bubbles," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 142(1), pages 218-232, September.
    3. Hansen, Bruce E, 1992. "The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 61-82, Suppl. De.
    4. Weil, Philippe, 1989. "The equity premium puzzle and the risk-free rate puzzle," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(3), pages 401-421, November.
    5. Bonomo, Marco & Garcia, Rene, 1996. "Consumption and equilibrium asset pricing: An empirical assessment," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 239-265, September.
    6. Kocherlakota, Narayana R., 1992. "Bubbles and constraints on debt accumulation," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 245-256.
    7. Gordon S. & St-Amour P., 2004. "Asset Returns and State-Dependent Risk Preferences," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 22, pages 241-252, July.
    8. Philippe Weil, 1990. "Nonexpected Utility in Macroeconomics," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 105(1), pages 29-42.
    9. Hui Chen, 2010. "Macroeconomic Conditions and the Puzzles of Credit Spreads and Capital Structure," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(6), pages 2171-2212, December.
    10. Lee, Ji Hyung & Phillips, Peter C.B., 2016. "Asset pricing with financial bubble risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PB), pages 590-622.
    11. Smith, William T, 2001. "How Does the Spirit of Capitalism Affect Stock Market Prices?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(4), pages 1215-1232.
    12. Driffill, John & Sola, Martin, 1998. "Intrinsic bubbles and regime-switching," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(2), pages 357-373, July.
    13. Qiang Dai & Kenneth Singleton, 2003. "Term Structure Dynamics in Theory and Reality," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(3), pages 631-678, July.
    14. John Y. Campbell & John Cochrane, 1999. "Force of Habit: A Consumption-Based Explanation of Aggregate Stock Market Behavior," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 107(2), pages 205-251, April.
    15. John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
    16. Larry G. Epstein & Stanley E. Zin, 2013. "Substitution, risk aversion and the temporal behavior of consumption and asset returns: A theoretical framework," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & William T Ziemba (ed.), HANDBOOK OF THE FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCIAL DECISION MAKING Part I, chapter 12, pages 207-239, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    17. Caravello, Tomas E. & Psaradakis, Zacharias & Sola, Martin, 2023. "Rational bubbles: Too many to be true?," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    18. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    19. Peter C. B. Phillips & Shuping Shi & Jun Yu, 2015. "Testing For Multiple Bubbles: Historical Episodes Of Exuberance And Collapse In The S&P 500," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56, pages 1043-1078, November.
    20. Harjoat S. Bhamra & Lars-Alexander Kuehn & Ilya A. Strebulaev, 2010. "The Levered Equity Risk Premium and Credit Spreads: A Unified Framework," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(2), pages 645-703, February.
    21. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Stochastic Differential Utility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 60(2), pages 353-394, March.
    22. Jia Shen & Robert J. Elliott, 2015. "General equilibrium pricing with multiple dividend streams and regime switching," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(9), pages 1543-1557, September.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    24. Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
    25. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/8686 is not listed on IDEAS
    26. Davide Delle Monache & Ivan Petrella & Fabrizio Venditti, 2021. "Price Dividend Ratio and Long-Run Stock Returns: A Score-Driven State Space Model," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(4), pages 1054-1065, October.
    27. Rachida Ouysse, 2023. "Asset Pricing with Endogenous Beliefs-Dependent Risk Aversion," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 21(2), pages 368-411.
    28. Epstein, Larry G & Zin, Stanley E, 1991. "Substitution, Risk Aversion, and the Temporal Behavior of Consumption and Asset Returns: An Empirical Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 99(2), pages 263-286, April.
    29. Bakshi, Gurdip S & Chen, Zhiwu, 1996. "The Spirit of Capitalism and Stock-Market Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 86(1), pages 133-157, March.
    30. Pascal St-Amour & Stephen Gordon, 2000. "A Preference Regime Model of Bull and Bear Markets," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(4), pages 1019-1033, September.
    31. Li, George, 2007. "Time-varying risk aversion and asset prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 243-257, January.
    32. Kenc, Turalay & Dibooglu, Sel, 2007. "The spirit of capitalism, asset pricing and growth in a small open economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(8), pages 1378-1402, December.
    33. Lucas, Robert E, Jr, 1978. "Asset Prices in an Exchange Economy," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(6), pages 1429-1445, November.
    34. Froot, Kenneth A & Obstfeld, Maurice, 1991. "Intrinsic Bubbles: The Case of Stock Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 81(5), pages 1189-1214, December.
    35. James D. Hamilton, 2018. "Why You Should Never Use the Hodrick-Prescott Filter," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 100(5), pages 831-843, December.
    36. Cecchetti, Stephen G & Lam, Pok-sang & Mark, Nelson C, 1990. "Mean Reversion in Equilibrium Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(3), pages 398-418, June.
    37. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.
    38. Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Erratum: The Likelihood Ratio Test under Nonstandard Conditions: Testing the Markov Switching Model of GNP," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(2), pages 195-198, March-Apr.
    39. Arnold, Marc & Wagner, Alexander F. & Westermann, Ramona, 2013. "Growth options, macroeconomic conditions, and the cross section of credit risk," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 350-385.
    40. Hamilton, James D. & Whiteman, Charles H., 1985. "The observable implications of self-fulfilling expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-373, November.
    41. Kreps, David M & Porteus, Evan L, 1978. "Temporal Resolution of Uncertainty and Dynamic Choice Theory," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(1), pages 185-200, January.
    42. Duffie, Darrell & Epstein, Larry G, 1992. "Asset Pricing with Stochastic Differential Utility," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 411-436.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Tomás Caravello & Turalay Kenc & Martín Sola, 2021. "Risk Aversion and Changes in Regime," Department of Economics Working Papers 2021_08, Universidad Torcuato Di Tella.
    2. Dominique Pépin & Stephen M. Miller, 2020. "The Time-Varying Nature of Risk Aversion: Evidence from 60 Years of U.S. Stock Market Data," Working papers 2020-09, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    3. Garcia, Rene & Renault, Eric & Semenov, Andrei, 2006. "Disentangling risk aversion and intertemporal substitution through a reference level," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 3(3), pages 181-193, September.
    4. Garcia, R. & Renault, E., 1998. "Risk Aversion, Intertemporal Substitution, and Option Pricing," Cahiers de recherche 9801, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
    5. Campbell, John Y., 2003. "Consumption-based asset pricing," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 13, pages 803-887, Elsevier.
    6. John Donaldson & Rajnish Mehra, 2007. "Risk Based Explanations of the Equity Premium," NBER Working Papers 13220, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Aase, Knut K., 2014. "Recursive utility and jump-diffusions," Discussion Papers 2014/9, Norwegian School of Economics, Department of Business and Management Science.
    8. Ai, Hengjie & Kiku, Dana, 2013. "Growth to value: Option exercise and the cross section of equity returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 325-349.
    9. Smith, William & Son, Young Seob, 2005. "Can the desire to conserve our natural resources be self-defeating?," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 49(1), pages 52-67, January.
    10. Calvet, Laurent E. & Fisher, Adlai J., 2008. "Multifrequency jump-diffusions: An equilibrium approach," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 207-226, January.
    11. Angelo Melino & Alan X. Yang, 2003. "State Dependent Preferences Can Explain the Equity Premium Puzzle," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 6(4), pages 806-830, October.
    12. Massimo Guidolin, 2013. "Markov switching models in asset pricing research," Chapters, in: Adrian R. Bell & Chris Brooks & Marcel Prokopczuk (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Finance, chapter 1, pages 3-44, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    13. Falato, Antonio, 2009. "Happiness maintenance and asset prices," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1247-1262, June.
    14. Berrada, Tony & Detemple, Jérôme & Rindisbacher, Marcel, 2018. "Asset pricing with beliefs-dependent risk aversion and learning," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 128(3), pages 504-534.
    15. Nengjiu Ju & Jianjun Miao, 2012. "Ambiguity, Learning, and Asset Returns," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 80(2), pages 559-591, March.
    16. Kabderian Dreyer, Johannes & Sharma, Vivek & Smith, William, 2023. "Warm-glow investment and the underperformance of green stocks," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 546-570.
    17. Max Gillman & Michal Kejak & Michal Pakoš, 2015. "Learning about Rare Disasters: Implications For Consumption and Asset Prices," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(3), pages 1053-1104.
    18. Garcia, Rene & Luger, Richard & Renault, Eric, 2003. "Empirical assessment of an intertemporal option pricing model with latent variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1-2), pages 49-83.
    19. John Y. Campbell, 2000. "Asset Pricing at the Millennium," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(4), pages 1515-1567, August.
    20. Luca De Gennaro Aquino & Xuedong He & Moris Simon Strub & Yuting Yang, 2024. "Reference-dependent asset pricing with a stochastic consumption-dividend ratio," Papers 2401.12856, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equity risk premium; Macroeconomic risk; Stochastic differential utility; Markov chain; Intrinsic bubbles;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G00 - Financial Economics - - General - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:166:y:2024:i:c:s0165188924001118. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.