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Internal migration and drug violence in Mexico

Author

Listed:
  • Aldeco Leo, Lorenzo
  • Jurado, Andrés
  • Ramírez-Álvarez, Aurora A.

Abstract

We study how internal migration responds to an increase in criminal violence in the context of Mexico’s 2007 War on Drugs. To identify causal effects, we exploit the changes in homicides generated by conflict between drug-trafficking organizations. Instrumental variable regressions show that high skilled individuals are less likely to migrate to a municipality where the homicide rate increased. Conversely, we find out-migration from municipalities that experienced an increase in murders but only to other municipalities in the same commuting zone. We interpret these facts as evidence that the migration response to increases in violence is tempered by moving costs. Using a discrete-choice model over destination choices, we estimate individuals would be willing to accept a reduction in wages of 0.15% to 0.58% to decrease the local homicide rate by 1%. The welfare cost of the post-2007 spike in homicides is in the order of 10% of GDP per year.

Suggested Citation

  • Aldeco Leo, Lorenzo & Jurado, Andrés & Ramírez-Álvarez, Aurora A., 2024. "Internal migration and drug violence in Mexico," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:deveco:v:171:y:2024:i:c:s030438782400083x
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jdeveco.2024.103334
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Migration; Violence; Organized crime; Mexico; Spatial equilibrium model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O15 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Economic Development: Human Resources; Human Development; Income Distribution; Migration

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