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Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes

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  • Frode Martin Nordvik

Abstract

A large literature investigates the relation between oil and conflict, yet no empirical study has found any link between oil and coups d’état. Using a new data set on oil production separated into onshore and offshore volumes, oil price shocks are seen to promote coups in onshore-intensive oil countries, while preventing them in offshore-intensive oil countries. A likely mechanism is that onshore oil motivates military build-ups, while offshore oil does not. From a political leader's point of view, a large military is a double-edged sword because it may turn against him and stage a coup.

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  • Frode Martin Nordvik, 2019. "Does Oil Promote or Prevent Coups? The Answer is Yes," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(619), pages 1425-1456.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:econjl:v:129:y:2019:i:619:p:1425-1456.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/ecoj.12604
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    Cited by:

    1. Pierre-Louis Vézina, 2021. "The Oil Nouveau-Riche and Arms Imports," Journal of African Economies, Centre for the Study of African Economies, vol. 30(4), pages 349-369.
    2. Alexandra Brausmann & Elise Grieg, 2020. "Resource Discoveries and the Political Survival of Dictators," CER-ETH Economics working paper series 20/345, CER-ETH - Center of Economic Research (CER-ETH) at ETH Zurich.
    3. Quentin Gallea & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2022. "Power in the Pipeline," Papers 2210.03572, arXiv.org.
    4. Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2023. "Natural resources and conflict: The crucial role of power mismatch and geographic asymmetries," Working Papers 698, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    5. repec:bny:wpaper:0106 is not listed on IDEAS

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