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Predictors of children in foster care being adopted: A classification tree analysis

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  • Snowden, Jessica
  • Leon, Scott
  • Sieracki, Jeffrey

Abstract

When returning home is not a viable option, adoption is the primary means by which youth in substitute care achieve permanency. Therefore, understanding the factors that impact adoption is critical to both evaluating and improving the child welfare system. Prior research has mostly studied "main effects" in regard to adoption rates and has not explored the ways in which youth and foster family variables might interact in complex ways to predict adoption. This study uses a classification tree analysis approach known as Optimal Data Analysis (ODA) to predict probability of adoption in 2003 using Adoption and Foster Care Analysis and Reporting System (AFCARS) data. 30,000 adopted youth and 30,000 non-adopted youth were randomly selected for participation in the study. Similar to previous studies, univariate analyses revealed that age, foster parent race/ethnicity, foster parent marital status, and number of previous placements all predicted probability of adoption. However, going further, several combinations of individual variables (multivariate ODA) improved prediction accuracy (e.g., age × structure of foster family × number of previous placements). Results also suggested that the impact of the state on adoption rates varied when essentially controlling for youth and family variables, supporting concerns regarding the crude use of AFCARS data when comparing states.

Suggested Citation

  • Snowden, Jessica & Leon, Scott & Sieracki, Jeffrey, 2008. "Predictors of children in foster care being adopted: A classification tree analysis," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 30(11), pages 1318-1327, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:cysrev:v:30:y:2008:i:11:p:1318-1327
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Courtney, Mark E. & Yin-Ling Irene Wong, 1996. "Comparing the timing of exits from substitute care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4-5), pages 307-334.
    2. Connell, Christian M. & Katz, Karol H. & Saunders, Leon & Tebes, Jacob Kraemer, 2006. "Leaving foster care--the influence of child and case characteristics on foster care exit rates," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 780-798, July.
    3. Smith, Brenda D., 2003. "After Parental Rights are Terminated: Factors Associated with Exiting Foster Care," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 25(12), pages 965-985, December.
    4. Rosenthal, James A. & Schmidt, Dolores & Conner, Jane, 1988. "Predictors of special needs adoption disruption: An exploratory study," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 101-117.
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    2. Akin, Becci A., 2011. "Predictors of foster care exits to permanency: A competing risks analysis of reunification, guardianship, and adoption," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 999-1011, June.
    3. Brown, Jason D. & Gerritts, Julie & Ivanova, Viktoria & Mehta, Nisha & Skrodzki, Donna, 2012. "Motives of aboriginal foster parents," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 34(7), pages 1298-1304.
    4. Yampolskaya, Svetlana & Sharrock, Patty & Armstrong, Mary I. & Strozier, Anne & Swanke, Jayme, 2014. "Profile of children placed in out-of-home care: Association with permanency outcomes," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 195-200.
    5. Lloyd, Margaret H. & Akin, Becci A. & Brook, Jody, 2017. "Parental drug use and permanency for young children in foster care: A competing risks analysis of reunification, guardianship, and adoption," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 77(C), pages 177-187.
    6. Potter, Marina Haddock & Font, Sarah A., 2021. "State contexts and foster care adoption rates," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    7. Netta Barak‐Corren & Yoav Kan‐Tor & Nelson Tebbe, 2022. "Examining the effects of antidiscrimination laws on children in the foster care and adoption systems," Journal of Empirical Legal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 19(4), pages 1003-1066, December.
    8. Katz, Colleen C. & Lalayants, Marina & Phillips, Jon D., 2018. "The role of out-of-home caregivers in the achievement of child welfare permanency," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 65-71.
    9. Lloyd, Margaret H. & Akin, Becci A., 2014. "The disparate impact of alcohol, methamphetamine, and other drugs on family reunification," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 72-81.
    10. Lindner, Abigail Rose & Hanlon, Ryan, 2024. "Outcomes of youth with foster care experiences based on permanency outcome – Adoption, aging out, long-term foster care, and reunification: A systematic review," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
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    12. Davidson, Ryan D. & Tomlinson, Claire S. & Beck, Connie J. & Bowen, Anne M., 2019. "The revolving door of families in the child welfare system: Risk and protective factors associated with families returning," Children and Youth Services Review, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 468-479.

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