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Assessing the predictive ability of a multilevel binary regression model

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  • Van Oirbeek, R.
  • Lesaffre, E.

Abstract

An adaptation of the Brier score and the concordance probability is proposed for the two-level and the three-level random intercept binary regression model. This results in 2 different Brier scores and 3 different C-indices for the two-level binary regression model and 4 different Brier scores and 7 different C-indices for the three-level binary regression model. The ensemble of these measures offers a better view on how the different elements of the random effects model, i.e. the covariates and the random effects, affect the predictive ability of the model separately, evaluated on a within-cluster, between-cluster and global level. For all measures, an estimation procedure using Bayesian and likelihood estimation methods was developed, including a percentile and a BCa non-parametric bootstrap step to construct credible/confidence intervals. In a simulation study, the likelihood estimation procedure showed difficulties in estimating unbiasedly the predictive ability of the random effects, while the Bayesian estimation procedure resulted in good estimation properties for all of the developed measures. The BCa non-parametric bootstrap method resulted in confidence/credible intervals with better coverage properties than the percentile non-parametric bootstrap method. The proposals are applied to a real-life binary data set with a three-level structure using the Bayesian estimation procedure.

Suggested Citation

  • Van Oirbeek, R. & Lesaffre, E., 2012. "Assessing the predictive ability of a multilevel binary regression model," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(6), pages 1966-1980.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:56:y:2012:i:6:p:1966-1980
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2011.11.023
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Germán Rodríguez & Noreen Goldman, 2001. "Improved estimation procedures for multilevel models with binary response: a case‐study," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 339-355.
    2. Thomas A. Gerds & Martin Schumacher, 2007. "Efron-Type Measures of Prediction Error for Survival Analysis," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 1283-1287, December.
    3. Anders Skrondal & Sophia Rabe‐Hesketh, 2009. "Prediction in multilevel generalized linear models," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 172(3), pages 659-687, June.
    4. C. A. Field & A. H. Welsh, 2007. "Bootstrapping clustered data," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 69(3), pages 369-390, June.
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