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Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda

Author

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  • Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz
  • Bijak, Jakub
  • Forster, Jonathan J.
  • Smith, Peter W.F.

Abstract

A Bayesian hierarchical model is proposed to forecast outcomes of binary referenda based on opinion poll data acquired over a period of time. It is demonstrated how the model provides a consistent probabilistic prediction of the final outcomes over the preceding months, effectively smoothing the volatility exhibited by individual polls. The method is illustrated using opinion poll data published before the Scottish independence referendum in 2014, in which Scotland voted to remain a part of the United Kingdom, and subsequently validate it on the data related to the 2016 referendum on the continuing membership of the United Kingdom in the European Union.

Suggested Citation

  • Wiśniowski, Arkadiusz & Bijak, Jakub & Forster, Jonathan J. & Smith, Peter W.F., 2019. "Hierarchical model for forecasting the outcomes of binary referenda," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 133(C), pages 90-103.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:csdana:v:133:y:2019:i:c:p:90-103
    DOI: 10.1016/j.csda.2018.09.007
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    References listed on IDEAS

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