IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/crcspp/v34y1991ip135-156.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models

Author

Listed:
  • Auerbach, Alan J.
  • Cai, Jinyong
  • Kotlikoff, Laurence J.

Abstract

This paper compares the predictions of three different saving models with respect to the impact of projected U.S. demographic change on future U.S. saving rates. The three models are the life cycle model, the infinite horizon altruism model, and a reduced form econometric model. The findings for the different models indicate a great range of possible paths of future U.S. saving. However, the three models concur in predicting a peak in the U.S. national saving rate in the near future (within 15 years), followed by a significant decline in the saving rate thereafter. In fact, the findings suggest the strong possibility of negative U.S. saving rates beginning after 2030.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Auerbach, Alan J. & Cai, Jinyong & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 1991. "U.S. demographics and saving: Predictions of three saving models," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 135-156, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:34:y:1991:i::p:135-156
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/0167-2231(91)90010-3
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Zeldes, Stephen P, 1989. "Consumption and Liquidity Constraints: An Empirical Investigation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 97(2), pages 305-346, April.
    2. David A. Wise, 1989. "The Economics of Aging," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number wise89-1.
    3. Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "From Deficit Delusion to the Fiscal Balance Rule: Looking for an Economically Meaningful Way to Assess Fiscal Policy," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 9-30, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Robert Hagemann & Giuseppe Nicoletti, 1989. "The Dynamics of an Aging Population: The Case of Four OECD Countries," NBER Working Papers 2797, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dániel Baksa & Zsuzsa Munkácsi, 2019. "More Gray, More Volatile? Aging and (Optimal) Monetary Policy," Bank of Lithuania Working Paper Series 67, Bank of Lithuania.
    2. James Banks & Richard Blundell, 1994. "Household Saving Behavior in the United Kingdom," NBER Chapters, in: International Comparisons of Household Saving, pages 169-206, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Bettendorf, Leon J.H. & Heijdra, Ben J., 2006. "Population ageing and pension reform in a small open economy with non-traded goods," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 30(12), pages 2389-2424, December.
    4. Naoto Yamauchi, 1996. "The Effects of Aging on National Saving and Asset Accumulation in Japan," NBER Chapters, in: The Economic Effects of Aging in the United States and Japan, pages 131-151, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Shiyu Li & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Shuanglin Lin & Wing Thye Woo & Yunyun Jiang, 2016. "How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 30(3), pages 255-274, September.
    6. Heijdra, Ben J. & Ligthart, Jenny E., 2006. "The Macroeconomic Dynamics Of Demographic Shocks," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(3), pages 349-370, June.
    7. Li, Shiyu & Lin, Shuanglin, 2023. "Housing property tax, economic growth, and intergenerational welfare: The case of China," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 233-251.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2002. "Generational policy," Handbook of Public Economics, in: A. J. Auerbach & M. Feldstein (ed.), Handbook of Public Economics, edition 1, volume 4, chapter 27, pages 1873-1932, Elsevier.
    2. Karen E. Dynan & Jonathan Skinner & Stephen P. Zeldes, 2004. "Do the Rich Save More?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(2), pages 397-444, April.
    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Christopher J. Mayer & Katerina Simons, 1994. "A new look at reverse mortgages: potential market and institutional constraints," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Mar, pages 15-26.
    5. Shan, Hui, 2010. "Property taxes and elderly mobility," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 194-205, March.
    6. Jokisch, Sabine & Kotlikoff, Laurence J., 2007. "Simulating the Dynamic Macroeconomic and Microeconomic Effects of the FairTax," National Tax Journal, National Tax Association;National Tax Journal, vol. 60(2), pages 225-252, June.
    7. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    8. Anikó Bíró, 2013. "Subjective mortality hazard shocks and the adjustment of consumption expenditures," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 26(4), pages 1379-1408, October.
    9. Tran, Minh Chau & Gan, Christopher & Hu, Baiding, 2014. "Credit Constraints and Impact on Farm Household Welfare: Evidence from Vietnam’s North Central Coast region," 2014 Conference, August 28-29, 2014, Nelson, New Zealand 187495, New Zealand Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
    10. van de Walle, Dominique, 2011. "Lasting welfare effects of widowhood in a poor country," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5734, The World Bank.
    11. Patnaik, Unmesh & Narayanan, K, 2010. "Vulnerability and Coping to Disasters: A Study of Household Behaviour in Flood Prone Region of India," MPRA Paper 21992, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    12. Crump, Richard K. & Eusepi, Stefano & Tambalotti, Andrea & Topa, Giorgio, 2022. "Subjective intertemporal substitution," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 126(C), pages 118-133.
    13. Paul Welfens, 2014. "Issues of modern macroeconomics: new post-crisis perspectives on the world economy," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 11(4), pages 481-527, December.
    14. Axel Börsch‐Supan & Alexander Ludwig & Joachim Winter, 2006. "Ageing, Pension Reform and Capital Flows: A Multi‐Country Simulation Model," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 73(292), pages 625-658, November.
    15. Auerbach, Alan & Kueng, Lorenz & Lee, Ronald & Yatsynovich, Yury, 2018. "Propagation and smoothing of shocks in alternative social security systems," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 91-105.
    16. Kim, H. Youn, 2017. "The permanent income hypothesis, transitional dynamics, and excess sensitivity of consumption," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 10-25.
    17. Yannis M. Ioannides & Vassilis A. Hajivassiliou, 2007. "Unemployment and liquidity constraints," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 22(3), pages 479-510.
    18. Shimizutani, Satoshi, 2011. "A new anatomy of the retirement process in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 23(3), pages 141-152.
    19. Buiter, Willem H., 1996. "Aspects of Fiscal Performance in some Transition Economies under Fund-supported Programs," CEPR Discussion Papers 1535, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Victor R. Fuchs, 2000. "Medicare Reform: The Larger Picture," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 14(2), pages 57-70, Spring.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:crcspp:v:34:y:1991:i::p:135-156. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jme .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.