IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v177y2023ics0960077923012018.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Contact-dependent infection and mobility in the metapopulation SIR model from a birth–death process perspective

Author

Listed:
  • Xie, Meiling
  • Li, Yuhan
  • Feng, Minyu
  • Kurths, Jürgen

Abstract

Given the widespread impact of COVID-19, modeling and analysis of epidemic propagation has been critical to epidemic prevention and control. However, previous studies have overlooked the significant influence of individual heterogeneity in behavior and physiology, including contact-dependent infection and migration on epidemic propagation. In this paper, we propose two metapopulation SIR models from individual and population perspectives. The first individual model introduces individual contact-dependent infection considering activity potential and infection rate, which leads to the derivation of the basic reproduction number R0 of our model. The birth–death process, used in the second population model, is represented by a compound Poisson process flow and Poisson process decomposition, respectively, to depict population mobility among subpopulations. In simulations, the number of individuals in each state and the converged number are illustrated to demonstrate the impact of various parameters. The relationship between the basic reproduction number R0 and various parameters is also demonstrated. Furthermore, the validity of our model is also confirmed on a real clinical report dataset of COVID-19 disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Xie, Meiling & Li, Yuhan & Feng, Minyu & Kurths, Jürgen, 2023. "Contact-dependent infection and mobility in the metapopulation SIR model from a birth–death process perspective," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 177(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923012018
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.114299
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077923012018
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2023.114299?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Dun Han & Qi Shao & Dandan Li, 2020. "Exploring the Epidemic Spreading in a Multilayer Metapopulation Network by considering Individuals’ Periodic Travelling," Complexity, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-9, April.
    2. Chung‐Min Liao & Chao‐Fang Chang & Huang‐Min Liang, 2005. "A Probabilistic Transmission Dynamic Model to Assess Indoor Airborne Infection Risks," Risk Analysis, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 25(5), pages 1097-1107, October.
    3. Shao, Qi & Han, Dun, 2022. "Epidemic spreading in metapopulation networks with heterogeneous mobility rates," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 412(C).
    4. A.H. Nzokem, 2021. "SIS Epidemic Model Birth-and-Death Markov Chain Approach," International Journal of Statistics and Probability, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 10(4), pages 1-10, July.
    5. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Evolutionary vaccination game approach in metapopulation migration model with information spreading on different graphs," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 120(C), pages 41-55.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Xie, Meiling & Zeng, Ziyan & Li, Yuhan & Feng, Minyu, 2024. "Adherence strategy based on evolutionary games in epidemic spreading," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Li, Wenjie & Li, Jiachen & Nie, Yanyi & Lin, Tao & Chen, Yu & Liu, Xiaoyang & Su, Sheng & Wang, Wei, 2024. "Infectious disease spreading modeling and containing strategy in heterogeneous population," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 181(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Kabir, K.M. Ariful & Tanimoto, Jun, 2019. "Dynamical behaviors for vaccination can suppress infectious disease – A game theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 229-239.
    2. Kulsum, Umma & Alam, Muntasir & Kamrujjaman, Md., 2024. "Modeling and investigating the dilemma of early and delayed vaccination driven by the dynamics of imitation and aspiration," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 178(C).
    3. Gao, Qingwu & Zhuang, Jun, 2020. "Stability analysis and control strategies for worm attack in mobile networks via a VEIQS propagation model," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 368(C).
    4. Wang, Jianwei & Xu, Wenshu & Chen, Wei & Yu, Fengyuan & He, Jialu, 2021. "Information sharing can suppress the spread of epidemics: Voluntary vaccination game on two-layer networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 583(C).
    5. Wang, Juquan & Han, Dun, 2023. "Epidemic spreading on metapopulation networks considering indirect contact," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 619(C).
    6. Hector Eduardo Roman & Fabrizio Croccolo, 2021. "Spreading of Infections on Network Models: Percolation Clusters and Random Trees," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-22, November.
    7. Amaral, Marco A. & Oliveira, Marcelo M. de & Javarone, Marco A., 2021. "An epidemiological model with voluntary quarantine strategies governed by evolutionary game dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).
    8. Wang, Mengyao & Pan, Qiuhui & He, Mingfeng, 2020. "The interplay of behaviors and attitudes in public goods game considering environmental investment," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 382(C).
    9. A. H. Nzokem, 2023. "Bitcoin versus S&P 500 Index: Return and Risk Analysis," Papers 2310.02436, arXiv.org.
    10. Han, Zhimin & Wang, Yi & Cao, Jinde, 2023. "Impact of contact heterogeneity on initial growth behavior of an epidemic: Complex network-based approach," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 451(C).
    11. Xu, Yuan-Hao & Wang, Hao-Jie & Lu, Zhong-Wen & Hu, Mao-Bin, 2023. "Impact of awareness dissemination on epidemic reaction–diffusion in multiplex networks," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 621(C).
    12. Javier Cifuentes-Faura & Ursula Faura-Martínez & Matilde Lafuente-Lechuga, 2022. "Mathematical Modeling and the Use of Network Models as Epidemiological Tools," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(18), pages 1-14, September.
    13. Lv, Xijian & Fan, Dongmei & Yang, Junxian & Li, Qiang & Zhou, Li, 2024. "Delay differential equation modeling of social contagion with higher-order interactions," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 466(C).
    14. Vivekanandhan, Gayathri & Nourian Zavareh, Mahdi & Natiq, Hayder & Nazarimehr, Fahimeh & Rajagopal, Karthikeyan & Svetec, Milan, 2022. "Investigation of vaccination game approach in spreading covid-19 epidemic model with considering the birth and death rates," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 163(C).
    15. Kabir, KM Ariful & Kuga, Kazuki & Tanimoto, Jun, 2020. "The impact of information spreading on epidemic vaccination game dynamics in a heterogeneous complex network- A theoretical approach," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    16. Lu, Zhong-Wen & Xu, Yuan-Hao & Chen, Jie & Hu, Mao-Bin, 2023. "Investigation of traffic-driven epidemic spreading by taxi trip data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 632(P1).
    17. Ventura, Paulo C. & Tokuda, Eric K. & da F. Costa, Luciano & Rodrigues, Francisco A., 2023. "A Markov chain for metapopulations of small sizes with attraction landscape," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    18. Kabir, KM Ariful & Chowdhury, Atiqur & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    19. Song, Mingrui & Gao, Shupeng & Liu, Chen & Bai, Yue & Zhang, Lei & Xie, Beilong & Chang, Lili, 2023. "Cross-diffusion induced Turing patterns on multiplex networks of a predator–prey model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 168(C).
    20. A. H. Nzokem, 2022. "Pricing European Options under Stochastic Volatility Models: Case of five-Parameter Variance-Gamma Process," Papers 2201.03378, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2023.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:177:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923012018. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.