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COVID-19 data, mitigation policies and Newcomb–Benford law

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  • Rocha Filho, T.M.
  • Mendes, J.F.F.
  • Lucio, M.L.
  • Moret, M.A.

Abstract

We study how reliable are available data on COVID-19 cases and deaths in different countries. Our analysis is based on a modification of the law of anomalous numbers, the Newcomb–Benford law, applied to the daily number of deaths and new cases in each country. We first revisit the Newcomb–Benford law and show how to avoid false negative compliance with the data. We then compare the χ2 statistics deviation from this law to a number of social and economic indices for each country by computing the Spearman rank-order correlation between them and the χ2 deviation. We considered the proportion of excess deaths for those countries with sufficient available data for a good estimate and obtained similar results: less democratic, less transparent, and more corrupt countries tend to have data of lesser quality. We also discussed the limitations of the present approach and which countries the results were significant for.

Suggested Citation

  • Rocha Filho, T.M. & Mendes, J.F.F. & Lucio, M.L. & Moret, M.A., 2023. "COVID-19 data, mitigation policies and Newcomb–Benford law," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:174:y:2023:i:c:s0960077923007154
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2023.113814
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Richard G. Jung & Pietro Di Santo & Cole Clifford & Graeme Prosperi-Porta & Stephanie Skanes & Annie Hung & Simon Parlow & Sarah Visintini & F. Daniel Ramirez & Trevor Simard & Benjamin Hibbert, 2021. "Methodological quality of COVID-19 clinical research," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 12(1), pages 1-10, December.
    2. M. A. MORET & V. de SENNA & M. C. SANTANA & G. F. ZEBENDE, 2009. "Geometric Structural Aspects Of Proteins And Newcomb–Benford Law," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 20(12), pages 1981-1988.
    3. Hazhir Rahmandad & Tse Yang Lim & John Sterman, 2021. "Behavioral dynamics of COVID‐19: estimating underreporting, multiple waves, and adherence fatigue across 92 nations," System Dynamics Review, System Dynamics Society, vol. 37(1), pages 5-31, January.
    4. M. A. MORET & V. de SENNA & M. G. PEREIRA & G. F. ZEBENDE, 2006. "Newcomb-Benford Law In Astrophysical Sources," International Journal of Modern Physics C (IJMPC), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 17(11), pages 1597-1604.
    5. Rocha Filho, T.M. & Moret, M.A. & Chow, C.C. & Phillips, J.C. & Cordeiro, A.J.A. & Scorza, F.A. & Almeida, A.-C.G. & Mendes, J.F.F., 2021. "A data-driven model for COVID-19 pandemic – Evolution of the attack rate and prognosis for Brazil," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    6. Hollyer, James R. & Rosendorff, B. Peter & Vreeland, James Raymond, 2014. "Measuring Transparency," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 22(4), pages 413-434.
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