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Analysis and optimal control of a mathematical modeling of the spread of African swine fever virus with a case study of South Korea and cost-effectiveness

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  • Kouidere, Abdelfatah
  • Balatif, Omar
  • Rachik, Mostafa

Abstract

In this work, we study a mathematical model describing the dynamics of the transmission of African Swine Fever Virus (ASFV) between pigs on the one hand and ticks on the other hand. The aim is to Protecting pigs against the African swine fever virus. We analysis the mathematical model by using Routh–Hurwitz criteria, the local stability of ASFV-free equilibrium and ASFV equilibrium are obtained. We also study the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters to know the parameters that have a high impact on the reproduction number R0. The aims of this paper is to reduce the number of infected pigs and ticks. By proposing several strategies, including the iron fencing to isolate uninfected pigs, spraying pesticides to fight ticks that transmit the virus, and getting rid of the infected and suspected pigs. Pontryagin’s maximal principle is used to describe the optimal controls and the optimal system is resolved in an iterative manner. Numerical simulations are performed using Matlab. The increased cost-effectiveness ratio was computed to investigate the cost effectiveness of all possible combinations of the three controls measures. Using a cost-effectiveness analysis, we showed that controlling the protection of susceptible pigs, to prevent contact between infected pigs and infected ticks on one hand and susceptible pigs on the other hand, it is the most cost-effective strategy for disease control.

Suggested Citation

  • Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Analysis and optimal control of a mathematical modeling of the spread of African swine fever virus with a case study of South Korea and cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:146:y:2021:i:c:s0960077921002204
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2021.110867
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Abdelfatah Kouidere & Omar Balatif & Hanane Ferjouchia & Abdesslam Boutayeb & Mostafa Rachik, 2019. "Optimal Control Strategy for a Discrete Time to the Dynamics of a Population of Diabetics with Highlighting the Impact of Living Environment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-8, December.
    2. Kada, Driss & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Labriji, El Houssine, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    3. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Youssoufi, Lahcen EL & Ferjouchia, Hanane & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Optimal Control of Mathematical modeling of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with highlighting the negative impact of quarantine on diabetics people with Cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    4. Tuan, Nguyen Huy & Mohammadi, Hakimeh & Rezapour, Shahram, 2020. "A mathematical model for COVID-19 transmission by using the Caputo fractional derivative," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    5. Omar Balatif & Bouchaib Khajji & Mostafa Rachik, 2020. "Mathematical Modeling, Analysis, and Optimal Control of Abstinence Behavior of Registration on the Electoral Lists," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, January.
    6. Abdelfatah Kouidere & Abderrahim Labzai & Hanane Ferjouchia & Omar Balatif & Mostafa Rachik, 2020. "A New Mathematical Modeling with Optimal Control Strategy for the Dynamics of Population of Diabetics and Its Complications with Effect of Behavioral Factors," Journal of Applied Mathematics, Hindawi, vol. 2020, pages 1-12, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Li, Juan & Zhang, Junhui & Gao, Lu & Nie, Bingxin & Zhu, Huaiping, 2024. "Evaluating the impact of swill-feeding on the control of African swine fever in China with a dynamic model," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 186(C).
    2. Mugabi, Francis & Duffy, Kevin J., 2023. "Epidemiological drivers and control strategies for African swine fever transmission cycles at a wildlife-livestock interface," Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 481(C).

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