IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chsofr/v141y2020ics0960077920308298.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies

Author

Listed:
  • Kada, Driss
  • Kouidere, Abdelfatah
  • Balatif, Omar
  • Rachik, Mostafa
  • Labriji, El Houssine

Abstract

In this article, we study the transmission of COVID-19 in the human population, notably between potential people and infected people of all age groups. Our objective is to reduce the number of infected people, in addition to increasing the number of individuals who recovered from the virus and are protected. We propose a mathematical model with control strategies using two variables of controls that represent respectively, the treatment of patients infected with COVID-19 by subjecting them to quarantine within hospitals and special places and using masks to cover the sensitive body parts. Pontryagin’s Maximum principle is used to characterize the optimal controls and the optimality system is solved by an iterative method. Finally, numerical simulations are presented with controls and without controls. Our results indicate that the implementation of the strategy that combines all the control variables adopted by the World Health Organization (WHO), produces excellent results similar to those achieved on the ground in Morocco.

Suggested Citation

  • Kada, Driss & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Labriji, El Houssine, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:141:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920308298
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0960077920308298
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110437?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Abdelfatah Kouidere & Omar Balatif & Hanane Ferjouchia & Abdesslam Boutayeb & Mostafa Rachik, 2019. "Optimal Control Strategy for a Discrete Time to the Dynamics of a Population of Diabetics with Highlighting the Impact of Living Environment," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2019, pages 1-8, December.
    2. Omar Balatif & Abderrahim Labzai & Mostafa Rachik, 2018. "A Discrete Mathematical Modeling and Optimal Control of the Electoral Behavior with regard to a Political Party," Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society, Hindawi, vol. 2018, pages 1-14, November.
    3. Zhi-Qiang Xia & Juan Zhang & Ya-Kui Xue & Gui-Quan Sun & Zhen Jin, 2015. "Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Analysis and optimal control of a mathematical modeling of the spread of African swine fever virus with a case study of South Korea and cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    2. Protyusha Dutta & Nirapada Santra & Guruprasad Samanta & Manuel De la Sen, 2024. "Nonlinear SIRS Fractional-Order Model: Analysing the Impact of Public Attitudes towards Vaccination, Government Actions, and Social Behavior on Disease Spread," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(14), pages 1-29, July.
    3. Ahmed, Mostak & Masud, Md. Abdullah Bin & Sarker, Md. Manirul Alam, 2023. "Bifurcation analysis and optimal control of discrete SIR model for COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Youssoufi, Lahcen EL & Ferjouchia, Hanane & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Optimal Control of Mathematical modeling of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with highlighting the negative impact of quarantine on diabetics people with Cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    5. Khajji, Bouchaib & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Elhia, Mohamed & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Fractional optimal control problem for an age-structured model of COVID-19 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 143(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Cerón Gómez, Miller & Mondragon, Eduardo Ibarguen, 2021. "Global stability analysis for a SEI model with nonlinear incidence rate and asymptomatic infectious state," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 402(C).
    2. Seoyun Choe & Hee-Sung Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-14, August.
    3. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Analysis and optimal control of a mathematical modeling of the spread of African swine fever virus with a case study of South Korea and cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Hussain, Shah & Tunç, Osman & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Khan, Hasib & Nadia, Elissa, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 130-150.
    5. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Youssoufi, Lahcen EL & Ferjouchia, Hanane & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa, 2021. "Optimal Control of Mathematical modeling of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with highlighting the negative impact of quarantine on diabetics people with Cost-effectiveness," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 145(C).
    6. Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Kada, Driss & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Naim, Mouhcine, 2021. "Optimal control approach of a mathematical modeling with multiple delays of the negative impact of delays in applying preventive precautions against the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic with a case stu," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    7. Kabir, KM Ariful & Chowdhury, Atiqur & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    8. Karim El Moutaouakil & Abdellatif El Ouissari & Vasile Palade & Anas Charroud & Adrian Olaru & Hicham Baïzri & Saliha Chellak & Mouna Cheggour, 2023. "Multi-Objective Optimization for Controlling the Dynamics of the Diabetic Population," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(13), pages 1-28, July.
    9. Guirao, Juan Luis García & Alsulami, Mansoor & Baskonus, Haci Mehmet & Ilhan, Esin & Veeresha, P., 2023. "Analysis of nonlinear compartmental model using a reliable method," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 214(C), pages 133-151.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:141:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920308298. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Thayer, Thomas R. (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/chaos-solitons-and-fractals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.