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Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea

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  • Zhi-Qiang Xia
  • Juan Zhang
  • Ya-Kui Xue
  • Gui-Quan Sun
  • Zhen Jin

Abstract

The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-Qiang Xia & Juan Zhang & Ya-Kui Xue & Gui-Quan Sun & Zhen Jin, 2015. "Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0144778
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778
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    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > MERS

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    Cited by:

    1. Kada, Driss & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Labriji, El Houssine, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Hussain, Shah & Tunç, Osman & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Khan, Hasib & Nadia, Elissa, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 130-150.
    3. Cerón Gómez, Miller & Mondragon, Eduardo Ibarguen, 2021. "Global stability analysis for a SEI model with nonlinear incidence rate and asymptomatic infectious state," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 402(C).
    4. Kabir, KM Ariful & Chowdhury, Atiqur & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    5. Seoyun Choe & Hee-Sung Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-14, August.

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