IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/plo/pone00/0144778.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea

Author

Listed:
  • Zhi-Qiang Xia
  • Juan Zhang
  • Ya-Kui Xue
  • Gui-Quan Sun
  • Zhen Jin

Abstract

The 2015 epidemic of Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS) in the Republic of Korea has been the largest outbreak outside Middle East. This epidemic had caused 185 laboratory-confirmed cases and 36 deaths in the Republic of Korea until September 2, 2015, which attracted public’s attention. Based on the detailed data of patients released by World Health Organization (WHO) and actual propagation of the epidemic, we construct two dynamical models to simulate the propagation processes from May 20 to June 8 and from June 9 to July 10, 2015, respectively and find that the basic reproduction number R0 reaches up to 4.422. The numerical analysis shows that the reasons of the outbreak spread quickly are lack of self-protection sense and targeted control measures. Through partial correction analysis, the parameters β1 and γ have strong correlations with R0, i.e., the infectivity and proportion of the asymptomatic infected cases have much influence on the spread of disease. By sensitivity analysis, strengthening self-protection ability of susceptible and quickly isolating or monitoring close contacts are effective measures to control the disease.

Suggested Citation

  • Zhi-Qiang Xia & Juan Zhang & Ya-Kui Xue & Gui-Quan Sun & Zhen Jin, 2015. "Modeling the Transmission of Middle East Respirator Syndrome Corona Virus in the Republic of Korea," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 10(12), pages 1-13, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0144778
    DOI: 10.1371/journal.pone.0144778
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144778
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article/file?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0144778&type=printable
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1371/journal.pone.0144778?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Citations

    RePEc Biblio mentions

    As found on the RePEc Biblio, the curated bibliography for Economics:
    1. > Economics of Welfare > Health Economics > Economics of Pandemics > Specific pandemics > MERS

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Kada, Driss & Kouidere, Abdelfatah & Balatif, Omar & Rachik, Mostafa & Labriji, El Houssine, 2020. "Mathematical modeling of the spread of COVID-19 among different age groups in Morocco: Optimal control approach for intervention strategies," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 141(C).
    2. Cerón Gómez, Miller & Mondragon, Eduardo Ibarguen, 2021. "Global stability analysis for a SEI model with nonlinear incidence rate and asymptomatic infectious state," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 402(C).
    3. Kabir, KM Ariful & Chowdhury, Atiqur & Tanimoto, Jun, 2021. "An evolutionary game modeling to assess the effect of border enforcement measures and socio-economic cost: Export-importation epidemic dynamics," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
    4. Hussain, Shah & Tunç, Osman & Rahman, Ghaus ur & Khan, Hasib & Nadia, Elissa, 2023. "Mathematical analysis of stochastic epidemic model of MERS-corona & application of ergodic theory," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 207(C), pages 130-150.
    5. Seoyun Choe & Hee-Sung Kim & Sunmi Lee, 2020. "Exploration of Superspreading Events in 2015 MERS-CoV Outbreak in Korea by Branching Process Models," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(17), pages 1-14, August.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:plo:pone00:0144778. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: plosone (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://journals.plos.org/plosone/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.