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A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19

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  • Papo, David
  • Righetti, Marco
  • Fadiga, Luciano
  • Biscarini, Fabio
  • Zanin, Massimiliano

Abstract

Italy has been one of the countries hardest hit by the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic. While the overall policy in response to the epidemic was to a large degree centralised, the regional basis of the healthcare system represented an important factor affecting the natural dynamics of the disease induced geographic specificities. Here, we characterise the region-specific modulation of COVID dynamics with a reduced exponential model leveraging available data on sub-intensive and intensive care unit patients made available by all regional councils from the very onset of the disease. This simple model provides a rather good fit of regional patient dynamics, particularly for regions where the affected population was large, highlighting important region-specific patterns of epidemic dynamics.

Suggested Citation

  • Papo, David & Righetti, Marco & Fadiga, Luciano & Biscarini, Fabio & Zanin, Massimiliano, 2020. "A minimal model of hospital patients’ dynamics in COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:140:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920305531
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110157
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Cleo Anastassopoulou & Lucia Russo & Athanasios Tsakris & Constantinos Siettos, 2020. "Data-based analysis, modelling and forecasting of the COVID-19 outbreak," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(3), pages 1-21, March.
    2. Fanelli, Duccio & Piazza, Francesco, 2020. "Analysis and forecast of COVID-19 spreading in China, Italy and France," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    3. Fuchang Gao & Lixing Han, 2012. "Implementing the Nelder-Mead simplex algorithm with adaptive parameters," Computational Optimization and Applications, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 259-277, January.
    4. Sumedha Gupta & Thuy D. Nguyen & Felipe Lozano Rojas & Shyam Raman & Byungkyu Lee & Ana Bento & Kosali I. Simon & Coady Wing, 2020. "Tracking Public and Private Responses to the COVID-19 Epidemic: Evidence from State and Local Government Actions," NBER Working Papers 27027, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Zanin, Massimiliano & Papo, David, 2020. "Assessing functional propagation patterns in COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
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    Cited by:

    1. Matouk, A.E., 2020. "Complex dynamics in susceptible-infected models for COVID-19 with multi-drug resistance," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).

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