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Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak

Author

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  • Sardar, Tridip
  • Nadim, Sk Shahid
  • Rana, Sourav
  • Chattopadhyay, Joydev

Abstract

In the absence of neither an effective treatment or vaccine and with an incomplete understanding of the epidemiological cycle, Govt. has implemented a nationwide lockdown to reduce COVID-19 transmission in India. To study the effect of social distancing measure, we considered a new mathematical model on COVID-19 that incorporates lockdown effect. By validating our model to the data on notified cases from five different states and overall India, we estimated several epidemiologically important parameters as well as the basic reproduction number (R0). Combining the mechanistic mathematical model with different statistical forecast models, we projected notified cases in the six locations for the period May 17, 2020, till May 31, 2020. A global sensitivity analysis is carried out to determine the correlation of two epidemiologically measurable parameters on the lockdown effect and also on R0. Our result suggests that lockdown will be effective in those locations where a higher percentage of symptomatic infection exists in the population. Furthermore, a large scale COVID-19 mass testing is required to reduce community infection. Ensemble model forecast suggested a high rise in the COVID-19 notified cases in most of the locations in the coming days. Furthermore, the trend of the effective reproduction number (Rt) during the projection period indicates if the lockdown measures are completely removed after May 17, 2020, a high spike in notified cases may be seen in those locations. Finally, combining our results, we provided an effective lockdown policy to reduce future COVID-19 transmission in India.

Suggested Citation

  • Sardar, Tridip & Nadim, Sk Shahid & Rana, Sourav & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2020. "Assessment of lockdown effect in some states and overall India: A predictive mathematical study on COVID-19 outbreak," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chsofr:v:139:y:2020:i:c:s0960077920304756
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chaos.2020.110078
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    Cited by:

    1. Cooper, Ian & Mondal, Argha & Antonopoulos, Chris G., 2020. "Dynamic tracking with model-based forecasting for the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    2. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano & Lorenzo Cicatiello, 2020. "A Synthetic Control Method Analysis of Schools Opening and Covid-19 Outbreak in Italy," CESifo Working Paper Series 8784, CESifo.
    3. Sk, Tahajuddin & Biswas, Santosh & Sardar, Tridip, 2022. "The impact of a power law-induced memory effect on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 165(P2).
    4. Tarifa S. Almulhim & Igor Barahona, 2022. "Decision support system for ranking relevant indicators for reopening strategies following COVID-19 lockdowns," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 56(2), pages 463-491, April.
    5. Vincenzo Alfano, 2022. "The Effects of School Closures on COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 20(2), pages 223-233, March.
    6. Gaetano Perone, 2022. "Comparison of ARIMA, ETS, NNAR, TBATS and hybrid models to forecast the second wave of COVID-19 hospitalizations in Italy," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 23(6), pages 917-940, August.
    7. Sebastien Bourdin & Slimane Ben Miled & Jamil Salhi, 2022. "The Drivers of Policies to Limit the Spread of COVID-19 in Europe," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-9, February.
    8. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2022. "Stay at Home! Governance Quality and Effectiveness of Lockdown," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 159(1), pages 101-123, January.
    9. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore & Cicatiello, Lorenzo, 2021. "School openings and the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. A provincial-level analysis using the synthetic control method," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 125(9), pages 1200-1207.
    10. Sharma, Natasha & Verma, Atul Kumar & Gupta, Arvind Kumar, 2021. "Spatial network based model forecasting transmission and control of COVID-19," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 581(C).
    11. Nadim, Sk Shahid & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2020. "Occurrence of backward bifurcation and prediction of disease transmission with imperfect lockdown: A case study on COVID-19," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 140(C).
    12. Nadim, Sk Shahid & Ghosh, Indrajit & Chattopadhyay, Joydev, 2021. "Short-term predictions and prevention strategies for COVID-19: A model-based study," Applied Mathematics and Computation, Elsevier, vol. 404(C).
    13. Alfano, Vincenzo & Ercolano, Salvatore, 2022. "Back to school or … back to lockdown? The effects of opening schools on the diffusion of COVID-19 in Italian regions," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 82(PB).
    14. Moran Bodas & Bruria Adini & Eli Jaffe & Arielle Kaim & Kobi Peleg, 2022. "Lockdown Efficacy in Controlling the Spread of COVID-19 May Be Waning Due to Decline in Public Compliance, Especially among Unvaccinated Individuals: A Cross-Sectional Study in Israel," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(9), pages 1-11, April.
    15. Vincenzo Alfano & Salvatore Ercolano, 2020. "The Efficacy of Lockdown Against COVID-19: A Cross-Country Panel Analysis," Applied Health Economics and Health Policy, Springer, vol. 18(4), pages 509-517, August.
    16. Rubayyi T. Alqahtani & Abdelhamid Ajbar, 2021. "Study of Dynamics of a COVID-19 Model for Saudi Arabia with Vaccination Rate, Saturated Treatment Function and Saturated Incidence Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(23), pages 1-13, December.
    17. Imdad, Kashif & Sahana, Mehebub & Rana, Md Juel & Haque, Ismail & Patel, Priyank Pravin & Pramanik, Malay, 2020. "The COVID-19 pandemic's footprint in India: An assessment on the district-level susceptibility and vulnerability," MPRA Paper 100727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Vashishth, Anil K. & Basaiti, Komal, 2024. "Modeling the effect of non-pharmaceutical measures and vaccination on the spread of two variants of COVID-19 in India," Mathematics and Computers in Simulation (MATCOM), Elsevier, vol. 217(C), pages 139-168.
    19. Rubayyi T. Alqahtani & Abdelhamid Ajbar & Nadiyah Hussain Alharthi, 2024. "Dynamics of a Model of Coronavirus Disease with Fear Effect, Treatment Function, and Variable Recovery Rate," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-16, May.
    20. Rahil Changotra & Himadri Rajput & Prachi Rajput & Sneha Gautam & Amarpreet Singh Arora, 2021. "Largest democracy in the world crippled by COVID-19: current perspective and experience from India," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 23(5), pages 6623-6641, May.
    21. Shyamali Satpathy & Gokulananda Patel & Khushboo Kumar, 2021. "Identifying and ranking techno-stressors among IT employees due to work from home arrangement during Covid-19 pandemic," DECISION: Official Journal of the Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, Springer;Indian Institute of Management Calcutta, vol. 48(4), pages 391-402, December.

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