IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/chieco/v67y2021ics1043951x21000389.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market

Author

Listed:
  • Lu, Zhentong
  • Zhang, Sisi
  • Hong, Jian

Abstract

This paper studies the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market. We estimate a structural model of household preference for housing, real estate developers' pricing decisions, and equilibrium market outcome in five large cities. By comparing the estimation results from pre- and post-policy intervention, we find that, after home purchase restrictions are implemented, overall housing demand in most cities becomes weaker and less price elastic; meanwhile, real estate developers face higher holding costs and thus are willing to lower prices and sell more quickly. Counterfactual analyses show that in some cities alternative policy designs that cause less structural change of demand could achieve larger consumer welfare and social welfare than the implemented policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Lu, Zhentong & Zhang, Sisi & Hong, Jian, 2021. "Examining the impact of home purchase restrictions on China's housing market," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000389
    DOI: 10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101620
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1043951X21000389
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.chieco.2021.101620?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 20(1), pages 42-60, January.
    2. Patrick Bayer & Fernando Ferreira & Robert McMillan, 2007. "A Unified Framework for Measuring Preferences for Schools and Neighborhoods," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 115(4), pages 588-638, August.
    3. Nevo, Aviv, 2001. "Measuring Market Power in the Ready-to-Eat Cereal Industry," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(2), pages 307-342, March.
    4. Federico Ciliberto & Jonathan W. Williams, 2014. "Does multimarket contact facilitate tacit collusion? Inference on conduct parameters in the airline industry," RAND Journal of Economics, RAND Corporation, vol. 45(4), pages 764-791, December.
    5. Wu, Jing & Gyourko, Joseph & Deng, Yongheng, 2012. "Evaluating conditions in major Chinese housing markets," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 531-543.
    6. Steven Berry & Panle Jia, 2010. "Tracing the Woes: An Empirical Analysis of the Airline Industry," American Economic Journal: Microeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 2(3), pages 1-43, August.
    7. Patrick Bajari & Phoebe Chan & Dirk Krueger & Daniel Miller, 2013. "A Dynamic Model Of Housing Demand: Estimation And Policy Implications," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(2), pages 409-442, May.
    8. David Genesove & Wallace P. Mullin, 1998. "Testing Static Oligopoly Models: Conduct and Cost in the Sugar Industry, 1890-1914," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 29(2), pages 355-377, Summer.
    9. Steven T. Berry, 1994. "Estimating Discrete-Choice Models of Product Differentiation," RAND Journal of Economics, The RAND Corporation, vol. 25(2), pages 242-262, Summer.
    10. William J. Baumol, 1986. "Microtheory: Applications and Origins," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022451, April.
    11. Du, Zaichao & Zhang, Lin, 2015. "Home-purchase restriction, property tax and housing price in China: A counterfactual analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 188(2), pages 558-568.
    12. Topel, Robert H & Rosen, Sherwin, 1988. "Housing Investment in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(4), pages 718-740, August.
    13. Berry, Steven & Levinsohn, James & Pakes, Ariel, 1995. "Automobile Prices in Market Equilibrium," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 63(4), pages 841-890, July.
    14. K. Sudhir, 2001. "Competitive Pricing Behavior in the US Auto Market: A Structural Analysis," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm228, Yale School of Management.
    15. Alvin Murphy, 2018. "A Dynamic Model of Housing Supply," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 10(4), pages 243-267, November.
    16. Shijun Jia & Yourong Wang & Gang-Zhi Fan, 2018. "Home-Purchase Limits and Housing Prices: Evidence from China," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 56(3), pages 386-409, April.
    17. Yongheng Deng & Joseph Gyourko & Jing Wu, 2012. "Land and House Price Measurement in China," NBER Working Papers 18403, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Bresnahan, Timothy F., 1989. "Empirical studies of industries with market power," Handbook of Industrial Organization, in: R. Schmalensee & R. Willig (ed.), Handbook of Industrial Organization, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 17, pages 1011-1057, Elsevier.
    19. Somerville, Tsur & Wang, Long & Yang, Yang, 2020. "Using purchase restrictions to cool housing markets: A within-market analysis," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    20. Weizeng Sun & Siqi Zheng & David M. Geltner & Rui Wang, 2017. "The Housing Market Effects of Local Home Purchase Restrictions: Evidence from Beijing," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 55(3), pages 288-312, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Huifu Nong, 2024. "Integration and risk transmission across supply, demand, and prices in China’s housing market," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 57(3), pages 1-28, June.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Leheyda, Nina, 2008. "Market Power, Multimarket Contact and Pricing: Some Evidence from the US Automobile Market," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-118, ZEW - Leibniz Centre for European Economic Research.
    2. Richards, Timothy J. & Acharya, Ram N. & Kagan, Albert, 2008. "Spatial competition and market power in banking," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 60(5), pages 436-454.
    3. Victor Aguirregabiria & Margaret Slade, 2017. "Empirical models of firms and industries," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 50(5), pages 1445-1488, December.
    4. Bontemps, Christian & Remmy, Kevin & Wei, Jiangyu, 2021. "Ex-post evaluation of the American Airlines-US Airways merger: a structural approach," TSE Working Papers 21-1258, Toulouse School of Economics (TSE).
    5. Sergio Meza & K. Sudhir, 2010. "Do private labels increase retailer bargaining power?," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 8(3), pages 333-363, September.
    6. Steven T. Berry & Philip A. Haile, 2014. "Identification in Differentiated Products Markets Using Market Level Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 82(5), pages 1749-1797, September.
    7. Beomjoon Shim & Ahmed Khwaja, 2017. "The Collusive Effect of Multimarket Contact on Prices: Evidence from Retail Lumber Markets," 2017 Meeting Papers 593, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    8. Brito, Duarte & Pereira, Pedro & Ramalho, Joaquim J.S., 2013. "Mergers, coordinated effects and efficiency in the Portuguese non-life insurance industry," International Journal of Industrial Organization, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 554-568.
    9. Dongling Huang & Christian Rojas & Frank Bass, 2008. "What Happens When Demand Is Estimated With A Misspecified Model?," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(4), pages 809-839, December.
    10. S. Sriram & Pradeep K. Chintagunta & Ramya Neelamegham, 2006. "Effects of Brand Preference, Product Attributes, and Marketing Mix Variables in Technology Product Markets," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 25(5), pages 440-456, September.
    11. Yanhao Wei, 2018. "Airline networks, traffic densities, and value of links," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 16(3), pages 341-370, September.
    12. Satoshi Myojo & Yuichiro Kanazawa, 2010. "On Asymptotic Properties of the Parameters of Differentiated Product Demand and Supply Systems When Demographically-Categorized Purchasing Pattern Data are Available," Discussion Papers 1009, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    13. Byrne, David P. & Imai, Susumu & Jain, Neelam & Sarafidis, Vasilis, 2022. "Instrument-free identification and estimation of differentiated products models using cost data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 228(2), pages 278-301.
    14. Jackie Y. Luan & K. Sudhir, 2022. "Optimal Inter-Release Time between Sequentially Released Products," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 2325, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. Jiang, Renna & Manchanda, Puneet & Rossi, Peter E., 2009. "Bayesian analysis of random coefficient logit models using aggregate data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(2), pages 136-148, April.
    16. Ginger Zhe Jin & Zhentong Lu & Xiaolu Zhou & Lu Fang, 2021. "Flagship Entry in Online Marketplaces," NBER Working Papers 29239, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Richards, Timothy J. & Patterson, Paul M. & Hamilton, Stephen F., 2007. "Fast Food, Addiction, and Market Power," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Western Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 32(3), pages 1-23, December.
    18. Tomohiro Ando, 2018. "Merchant selection and pricing strategy for a platform firm in the online group buying market," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 263(1), pages 209-230, April.
    19. Richard Schmalensee, 2012. "“On a Level with Dentists?” Reflections on the Evolution of Industrial Organization," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 41(3), pages 157-179, November.
    20. Jackie Y. Luan & K. Sudhir, 2022. "Optimal Inter-release Timing for Sequentially Released Products," Customer Needs and Solutions, Springer;Institute for Sustainable Innovation and Growth (iSIG), vol. 9(1), pages 25-46, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Housing demand; Housing supply; Home purchase restrictions; Structural model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R31 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Housing Supply and Markets
    • R38 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Real Estate Markets, Spatial Production Analysis, and Firm Location - - - Government Policy
    • O18 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis; Housing; Infrastructure

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:chieco:v:67:y:2021:i:c:s1043951x21000389. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/chieco .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.