IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bpj/glecon/v10y2011i4n1.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies

Author

Listed:
  • Dong Yan

    (Chinese Academy of Social Sciences)

  • Whalley John

    (University of Western Ontario)

Abstract

Because China's economic structure is different from that in OECD countries, using conventional neo-classical competitive trade models to analyze the welfare and trade impacts of trade related policy change can be misleading. In particular, both the exchange rate regime and output and pricing policies of state owned enterprises (SOE's) will have effects on trade and welfare which differ from a classical competitive model. This paper present a numerical model that captures the combined and interactive effects of three policy elements in prototype form of tariffs, policy towards SOEs in the industrial sector, and an exchange rate regime supporting large trade surpluses and additions to foreign reserves. The model has non neutral monetary features, endogenous trade imbalances and average product pricing of labor in goods. We do not claim it to be fully representative of modern China, but it does go some way beyond simple competitive models used elsewhere and points to different conclusions of policy impact. We calibrate our model to 2006 data, and then evaluate the impacts both singly and in combination of: tariff liberalization, a move to more freely floating exchange rates, and SOE enterprise reform. Results show that large differences in policy have a different impact relative to a classical competitive model. SOE reform and a freely floating Chinese exchange rate have more impact on China's welfare than tariff liberalization. Policies of RMB appreciation and increasing China's money stock reduce China's trade surplus. In the traditional competitive model, trade liberalization impacts both imports and exports, while in our central case model, with endogenously determined trade surplus, trade liberalization has little effect on exports. Most of the policy impact is on imports and the trade surplus. SOE reform of China's manufacturing sector significantly decreases production of China's manufacturing sector and increases production in China's other sectors.

Suggested Citation

  • Dong Yan & Whalley John, 2011. "Model Structure and the Combined Welfare and Trade Effects of China's Trade Related Policies," Global Economy Journal, De Gruyter, vol. 10(4), pages 1-21, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:10:y:2011:i:4:n:1
    DOI: 10.2202/1524-5861.1642
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.2202/1524-5861.1642
    Download Restriction: For access to full text, subscription to the journal or payment for the individual article is required.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.2202/1524-5861.1642?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version below or search for a different version of it.

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Koichiro Kamada & Izumi Takagawa, 2005. "Policy coordination in East Asia and across the Pacific," International Economics and Economic Policy, Springer, vol. 2(4), pages 275-306, December.
    2. Thorbecke Willem, 2006. "How Would an Appreciation of the Renminbi Affect the U.S. Trade Deficit with China?," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 6(3), pages 1-17, December.
    3. Dirk Willenbockel, 2006. "Structural Effects of a Real Exchange Rate Revaluation in China: a CGE Assessment," EcoMod2006 272100102, EcoMod.
    4. Cull, Robert & Xu, Lixin Colin, 2000. "Bureaucrats, State Banks, and the Efficiency of Credit Allocation: The Experience of Chinese State-Owned Enterprises," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 1-31, March.
    5. Zheng, Jinghai & Liu, Xiaoxuan & Bigsten, Arne, 2003. "Efficiency, technical progress, and best practice in Chinese state enterprises (1980-1994)," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 134-152, March.
    6. John Whalley & Shunming Zhang, 2006. "State-Owned Enterprise Behaviour Responses to Trade Reforms: Some Analytics and Numerical Simulation Results Using Chinese Data," NBER Working Papers 12780, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Li, Chunding & Whalley, John, 2014. "China's potential future growth and gains from trade policy bargaining: Some numerical simulation results," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 65-78.
    2. LI, Chunding & WHALLEY, John, 2012. "Rebalancing and the Chinese VAT: Some numerical simulation results," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(2), pages 316-324.
    3. Gianpaolo Rossini, 2019. "State Owned Enterprises (SOEs) and Non Transparent Trade Policies," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 5(3), pages 433-453, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Whalley, John & Wang, Li, 2011. "The impacts of Renminbi appreciation on trade flows and reserve accumulation in a monetary trade model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 614-621.
    2. THORBECKE, Willem, 2009. "Can East Asia be an Engine of Growth for the World Economy?," Discussion papers 09006, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    3. Ho, Chun-Yu, 2012. "Market structure, welfare, and banking reform in China," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 291-313.
    4. Galina Hale & Cheryl Long, 2010. "If you try, you’ll get by: Chinese private firms’ efficiency gains from overcoming financial constraints," Working Paper Series 2010-21, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    5. Kearney, Colm & Muckley, Cal, 2008. "Can the traditional Asian US dollar peg exchange rate regime be extended to include the Japanese yen?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 17(5), pages 870-885, December.
    6. Cull, Robert & Xu, Lixin Colin & Zhu, Tian, 2009. "Formal finance and trade credit during China's transition," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 173-192, April.
    7. Al-Hadi, Ahmed & Eulaiwi, Baban & Al-Yahyaee, Khamis Hamed & Duong, Lien & Taylor, Grantley, 2020. "Investment committees and corporate cash holdings," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    8. Xiaoqiang Cheng & Hans Degryse, 2010. "The Impact of Bank and Non-Bank Financial Institutions on Local Economic Growth in China," Journal of Financial Services Research, Springer;Western Finance Association, vol. 37(2), pages 179-199, June.
    9. Ciprian Stan & Mike Peng & Garry Bruton, 2014. "Slack and the performance of state-owned enterprises," Asia Pacific Journal of Management, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 473-495, June.
    10. Amess, Kevin & Banerji, Sanjay & Lampousis, Athanasios, 2015. "Corporate cash holdings: Causes and consequences," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 421-433.
    11. Alicia Garcia-Herrero & Tuuli Koivu, 2008. "China'S Exchange Rate Policy And Asian Trade," Economie Internationale, CEPII research center, issue 116, pages 53-92.
    12. Mizanur RAHMAN & Willem THORBECKE, 2007. "How Would China's Exports be Affected by a Unilateral Appreciation of the RMB and a Joint Appreciation of Countries Supplying Intermediate Imports?," Discussion papers 07012, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    13. Alexakis, Christos & Izzeldin, Marwan & Johnes, Jill & Pappas, Vasileios, 2019. "Performance and productivity in Islamic and conventional banks: Evidence from the global financial crisis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 1-14.
    14. Mukim,Megha & Zhu,Tingting Juni, 2015. "Empowering cities : good for growth ? evidence from China," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7193, The World Bank.
    15. Bliss, Christopher, 2007. "Trade, Growth, and Inequality," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199204649.
    16. Willem THORBECKE, 2017. "A Yen for Change: The strong yen and the Japanese automobile industry," Discussion papers 17005, Research Institute of Economy, Trade and Industry (RIETI).
    17. Chun‐Yu Ho, 2015. "Switching Cost And Deposit Demand In China," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(3), pages 723-749, August.
    18. Thorbecke, Willem, 2008. "The effect of exchange rate volatility on fragmentation in East Asia: Evidence from the electronics industry," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 22(4), pages 535-544, December.
    19. Lin, Xiaochi & Zhang, Yi & Zhu, Ning, 2009. "Does bank ownership increase firm value? Evidence from China," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 720-737, June.
    20. Lijuan Xiao & Min Bai & Yafeng Qin & Lingyun Xiong & Lijuan Yang, 2021. "Financial Slack and Inefficient Investment Decisions in China," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 42(4), pages 920-941, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese economy; trade policy; trade liberalization;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F1 - International Economics - - Trade

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bpj:glecon:v:10:y:2011:i:4:n:1. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.degruyter.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.