IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/bushor/v57y2014i5p607-615.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Solving the problems of new product forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Kahn, Kenneth B.

Abstract

An important consideration in solving the problems of new product forecasting entails distinguishing new product forecasting from the process of forecasting existing products. Particular differences between the two can be identified across the dimensions of data, analytics, forecast, plan, and measurement. For example, new product forecasting features little to no data with which to begin the process, whereas data are available and accessible in forecasting existing products. The minimal data situation requires a qualitative approach that lays out assumptions to provide transparency; in contrast, quantitative techniques are predominantly used when forecasting existing products. Different assumptions help construct a range of new product forecast outcomes on which company contingencies can be planned versus a singular point forecast for an existing product. And the measure of forecast accuracy, which is a common metric in forecasting existing products, must give way to meaningfulness so that the new product forecast is actionable. Recognizing new product forecasting as a cross-functional, company-wide process helps resolve the problems of new product forecasting. While incapable of remedying all problems, a properly understood and organized new product forecasting effort can help the company better prepare, execute, and support a new product launch, affording a greater propensity to achieve new product success.

Suggested Citation

  • Kahn, Kenneth B., 2014. "Solving the problems of new product forecasting," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 57(5), pages 607-615.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:57:y:2014:i:5:p:607-615
    DOI: 10.1016/j.bushor.2014.05.003
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0007681314000822
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.bushor.2014.05.003?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Alec Finney & Martin Joseph, 2011. "Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 20, pages 29-36, Winter.
    2. Mentzer, John T. & Bienstock, Carol C. & Kahn, Kenneth B., 1999. "Benchmarking sales forecasting management," Business Horizons, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 48-56.
    3. K. Rao & A. Vijayakumar & R. Sarker, 2006. "Foreword," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 143(1), pages 19-20, March.
    4. Alec Finney & Martin Joseph & Hannah Kurth, 2011. "Getting Your Forecasting and Planning Fundamentals Right: A Case Study," Foresight: The International Journal of Applied Forecasting, International Institute of Forecasters, issue 21, pages 30-34, Spring.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Elalem, Yara Kayyali & Maier, Sebastian & Seifert, Ralf W., 2023. "A machine learning-based framework for forecasting sales of new products with short life cycles using deep neural networks," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(4), pages 1874-1894.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Baecke, Philippe & De Baets, Shari & Vanderheyden, Karlien, 2017. "Investigating the added value of integrating human judgement into statistical demand forecasting systems," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 191(C), pages 85-96.
    2. Fildes, Robert & Bretschneider, Stuart & Collopy, Fred & Lawrence, Michael & Stewart, Doug & Winklhofer, Heidi & Mentzer, John T. & Moon, Mark A., 2003. "Researching Sales Forecasting Practice: Commentaries and authors' response on "Conducting a Sales Forecasting Audit" by M.A. Moon, J.T. Mentzer & C.D. Smith," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 27-42.
    3. Moritz, Mark, 2008. "Competing Paradigms in Pastoral Development? A Perspective from the Far North of Cameroon," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 36(11), pages 2243-2254, November.
    4. J. Lasserre, 2011. "Min-max and robust polynomial optimization," Journal of Global Optimization, Springer, vol. 51(1), pages 1-10, September.
    5. Samuel Natale & Caroline Doran, 2012. "Marketization of Education: An Ethical Dilemma," Journal of Business Ethics, Springer, vol. 105(2), pages 187-196, January.
    6. McLeish, Caitriona & Nightingale, Paul, 2007. "Biosecurity, bioterrorism and the governance of science: The increasing convergence of science and security policy," Research Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 1635-1654, December.
    7. Llamas, M. R. & Garrido, A., 2007. "Lessons from intensive groundwater use in Spain: economic and social benefits and conflicts," IWMI Books, Reports H040051, International Water Management Institute.
    8. Moon, Mark A. & Mentzer, John T. & Smith, Carlo D., 2003. "Conducting a sales forecasting audit," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 5-25.
    9. Danese, Pamela & Kalchschmidt, Matteo, 2011. "The impact of forecasting on companies' performance: Analysis in a multivariate setting," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(1), pages 458-469, September.
    10. de Haen, Hartwig & Klasen, Stephan & Qaim, Matin, 2011. "What do we really know? Metrics for food insecurity and undernutrition," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 760-769.
    11. Marcel Boumans & Ariane Dupont-Kieffer, 2011. "A History of the Histories of Econometrics," History of Political Economy, Duke University Press, vol. 43(5), pages 5-31, Supplemen.
    12. Dean Jamison & Prabhat Jha & David E. Bloom, 2008. "Disease Control," PGDA Working Papers 3508, Program on the Global Demography of Aging.
    13. Smith, Carlo D. & Mentzer, John T., 2010. "Forecasting task-technology fit: The influence of individuals, systems and procedures on forecast performance," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 144-161, January.
    14. Yen-Lin Chiu, 2015. "Towards sustainable enterprises: the impact factor of climate change for corporate responsibility and performance," European Journal of Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 40(2), pages 341-365, October.
    15. Donna F. Davis & John T. Mentzer & Teresa M. Mccarthy & Susan L. Golicic, 2006. "The evolution of sales forecasting management: a 20-year longitudinal study of forecasting practices," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(5), pages 303-324.
    16. Asimakopoulos, Stavros & Dix, Alan, 2013. "Forecasting support systems technologies-in-practice: A model of adoption and use for product forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 322-336.
    17. Anthony Onwuegbuzie & R. Johnson & Kathleen Collins, 2011. "Assessing legitimation in mixed research: a new framework," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 45(6), pages 1253-1271, October.
    18. Kalchschmidt, Matteo, 2012. "Best practices in demand forecasting: Tests of universalistic, contingency and configurational theories," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 140(2), pages 782-793.
    19. Ferrier, Peyton Michael, 2008. "Illicit Agricultural Trade," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Northeastern Agricultural and Resource Economics Association, vol. 37(2), pages 1-15.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:bushor:v:57:y:2014:i:5:p:607-615. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/bushor .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.