IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/beexfi/v34y2022ics2214635022000053.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?

Author

Listed:
  • Kim, Jeong Ho (John)
  • Lee, Heebum
  • Lee, Sung Kwan

Abstract

We empirically investigate the role of credit supply in fertility decisions. Using the U.S. banking deregulation in the 1980s and the 2007–2009 Great Recession as two different laboratories for credit supply shocks, we find that an increase in credit supply consistently implies higher fertility rates, as well as higher propensity to have a child. This relation, which is economically and statistically significant, differs across individuals: It is more pronounced for young women and for families with unemployed husbands. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that increased credit access leads to more optimistic expectations about personal prospects, and in turn, higher fertility rates.

Suggested Citation

  • Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Lee, Heebum & Lee, Sung Kwan, 2022. "Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:34:y:2022:i:c:s2214635022000053
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100633
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2214635022000053
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jbef.2022.100633?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi & Emil Verner, 2017. "How do Credit Supply Shocks Affect the Real Economy? Evidence from the United States in the 1980s," NBER Working Papers 23802, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Dettling, Lisa J. & Kearney, Melissa S., 2014. "House prices and birth rates: The impact of the real estate market on the decision to have a baby," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 82-100.
    3. Randall S. Kroszner & Philip E. Strahan, 2014. "Regulation and Deregulation of the US Banking Industry: Causes, Consequences, and Implications for the Future," NBER Chapters, in: Economic Regulation and Its Reform: What Have We Learned?, pages 485-543, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Brian S. Chen & Samuel G. Hanson & Jeremy C. Stein, 2017. "The Decline of Big-Bank Lending to Small Business: Dynamic Impacts on Local Credit and Labor Markets," NBER Working Papers 23843, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    6. Khorunzhina, Natalia & Miller, Robert A., 2019. "American Dream Delayed: Shifting Determinants of Homeownership," Working Papers 7-2019, Copenhagen Business School, Department of Economics.
    7. Michael F. Lovenheim & Kevin J. Mumford, 2013. "Do Family Wealth Shocks Affect Fertility Choices? Evidence from the Housing Market," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 95(2), pages 464-475, May.
    8. Kasey Buckles & Daniel Hungerman & Steven Lugauer, 2021. "Is Fertility a Leading Economic Indicator?," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 131(634), pages 541-565.
    9. Bhutta, Neil & Ringo, Daniel, 2021. "The effect of interest rates on home buying: Evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 195-211.
    10. Jessamyn Schaller, 2016. "Booms, Busts, and Fertility: Testing the Becker Model Using Gender-Specific Labor Demand," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 51(1), pages 1-29.
    11. Nuno Martins & Ernesto Villanueva, 2009. "Does High Cost of Mortgage Debt Explain Why Young Adults Live with Their Parents?," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 7(5), pages 974-1010, September.
    12. Isaac Hacamo, 2021. "The Babies of Mortgage Market Deregulation [Secular stagnation? The effect of aging on economic growth in the age of automation]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 907-948.
    13. Sommer, Kamila, 2016. "Fertility choice in a life cycle model with idiosyncratic uninsurable earnings risk," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 27-38.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Fergus Cumming & Lisa Dettling, 2024. "Monetary Policy and Birth Rates: The Effect of Mortgage Rate Pass-Through on Fertility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 91(1), pages 229-258.
    2. Shoumitro Chatterjee & Tom S. Vogl, 2016. "Growth and Childbearing in the Short- and Long-Run," Working Papers sc_tv_growth_fertility.pd, Princeton University, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Research Program in Development Studies..
    3. Brehm, Margaret E. & Brehm, Paul A., 2022. "Drill, baby, drill: Natural resource shocks and fertility in Indonesia," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    4. Libertad González & Luis Guirola & Blanca Zapater, 2023. "Partisan Abortions," Working Papers 1385, Barcelona School of Economics.
    5. Gordon B. Dahl & Runjing Lu & William Mullins, 2022. "Partisan Fertility and Presidential Elections," American Economic Review: Insights, American Economic Association, vol. 4(4), pages 473-490, December.
    6. Liepmann, Hannah, 2018. "The impact of a negative labor demand shock on fertility – Evidence from the fall of the Berlin Wall," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 210-224.
    7. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2021. "Trade Shocks, Fertility, and Marital Behavior," DISCE - Working Papers del Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza def100, Università Cattolica del Sacro Cuore, Dipartimenti e Istituti di Scienze Economiche (DISCE).
    8. Jason M. Lindo & Krishna Regmi & Isaac Swensen, 2020. "Stable Income, Stable Family," NBER Working Papers 27753, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. Osea Giuntella & Lorenzo Rotunno & Luca Stella, 2022. "Globalization, Fertility and Marital Behavior in a Lowest-Low Fertility Setting," CESifo Working Paper Series 9755, CESifo.
    10. Coskun, Sena & Dalgic, Husnu C., 2024. "The emergence of procyclical fertility: The role of breadwinner women," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 142(C).
    11. Hong Liu & Lili Liu & Fei Wang, 2023. "Housing wealth and fertility: evidence from China," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 359-395, January.
    12. repec:hum:wpaper:sfb649dp2016-042 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Melissa S. Kearney & Phillip B. Levine, 2023. "The US COVID-19 baby bust and rebound," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(4), pages 2145-2168, October.
    14. Luc Laeven & Alexander Popov, 2016. "A Lost Generation? Education Decisions and Employment Outcomes during the US Housing Boom-Bust Cycle of the 2000s," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 106(5), pages 630-635, May.
    15. Day, Creina & Guest, Ross, 2016. "Fertility and female wages: A new link via house prices," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 121-132.
    16. Sonia Bhalotra & Abhishek Chakravarty & Dilip Mookherjee & Francisco J. Pino, 2019. "Property Rights and Gender Bias: Evidence from Land Reform in West Bengal," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 205-237, April.
    17. Richard Disney & John Gathergood, 2018. "House Prices, Wealth Effects and Labour Supply," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 85(339), pages 449-478, July.
    18. N. Meltem Daysal & Michael F. Lovenheim & David N. Wasser, 2023. "The Intergenerational Transmission of Housing Wealth," CESifo Working Paper Series 10647, CESifo.
    19. John Simon & Tahlee Stone, 2017. "The Property Ladder after the Financial Crisis: The First Step is a Stretch but Those Who Make It Are Doing OK," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2017-05, Reserve Bank of Australia.
    20. Francisco Gallego & Jeanne Lafortune, 2023. "Baby commodity booms? The impact of commodity shocks on fertility decisions and outcomes," Journal of Population Economics, Springer;European Society for Population Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 295-320, January.
    21. Héctor Bellido & Miriam Marcén, 2019. "Fertility and the business cycle: the European case," Review of Economics of the Household, Springer, vol. 17(4), pages 1289-1319, December.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:beexfi:v:34:y:2022:i:c:s2214635022000053. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.journals.elsevier.com/journal-of-behavioral-and-experimental-finance .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.